LiveMACE: Process-Aware Evaluation of LLM Agent Capabilities in Evolving Markets

Markets are a promising way to coordinate AI agent activity for similar reasons to those used to justify markets more broadly. In order to effectively participate in markets, agents need to have informative signals of their own ability to successfully complete a task and the cost of doing so. We propose MarketBench, a benchmark for assessing whether AI agents have these capabilities. We use a 93-task subset of SWE-bench Lite, a software engineering benchmark, with six recently released LLMs as a demonstration. These LLMs are miscalibrated on both success probability and token usage, and auctions built from these self-reports diverge from a full-information allocation. A follow-up intervention where we add information about capabilities from prior experiments to the context improves calibration, but only modestly narrows the gap to a full-information benchmark. We also document the performance of a market-based scaffolding with these LLMs. Our results point to self-assessment as a key bottleneck for market-style coordination of AI agents.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous financial agents initialized with explicit behavioral mandates such as "preserve capital" or "avoid speculative bets" that are meant to govern every decision throughout deployment. In practice, however, as market context accumulates over long horizons, these mandates gradually lose their behavioral influence, a phenomenon we formalize as Mandate Salience Decay (MSD). To measure MSD objectively, we introduce FinPersona-Bench, a simulation benchmark in which a synthetic market decouples observable price from hidden fundamental value, enabling falsifiable evaluation across three failure modes: trading without signal in calm markets, panic-selling during crashes, and ignoring fundamental value during speculative bubbles. Evaluating 18 leading frontier and open-source LLMs, each assigned one of three behavioral profiles ranging from strict capital preservation to aggressive growth, shows that MSD compounds over time and is model-dependent. In crash scenarios, the behavioral gap between static agents and those receiving periodic mandate re-grounding grows 4.4x from the first to the final quarter of the simulation. The effects of mandate re-grounding are not uniformly positive: it consistently helps conservative agents in low-signal markets but actively worsens behavior for aggressive agents in the same setting. These findings suggest that reliable long-horizon deployment requires selective, mandate-aware re-grounding based on agent profile and market regime.

Evaluating whether large language model (LLM) agents can profit in capital markets is increasingly framed as end-to-end trading: place an agent in a historical market, let it trade, and measure portfolio returns. This setup is vulnerable to two evaluation failures. First, long backtests often overlap with the knowledge cutoffs of frontier LLMs, allowing memorized tickers, dates, prices, and market narratives to substitute for investment reasoning. Second, raw returns are a noisy proxy for stock-selection ability, since positive performance may come from market beta, style exposure, or favorable regimes rather than genuine alpha. We introduce KTD-Fin (Knowing-To-Doing Financial Benchmark), an end-to-end stock-market trading benchmark that addresses both issues. KTD-Fin uses a data-side masking protocol to anonymize key identifiers and calendar information consistently across prompts and tools, separating historical market memory from investment decision-making. It also incorporates a Barra-style performance attribution framework that decomposes portfolio returns into market, style, and stock-selection alpha components. Across ten frontier LLM agents evaluated on the Chinese CSI300 over a 2024--2026 window, masking substantially changes agent rationales, pushing them towards anonymized factor-based reasoning. Attribution analysis further shows that LLM agents' cumulative returns under leakage-controlled evaluation are largely explained by passive market and style exposure, with limited evidence of persistent stock-selection alpha. These findings suggest that financial LLM benchmarks should evaluate not only whether an agent makes money, but also whether the source of returns reflects transferable investment skill. We release KTD-Fin as a reproducible template for leakage-controlled and attribution-aware evaluation of LLM trading agents.