Quickest Change Detection with Diffusion-Integrated Scores
Organizations: Augusta University · Toronto Metropolitan University · Princeton University
Abstract
Classical CUSUM relies on the log-likelihood ratio of the underlying distributions, which cannot generally be computed from finite pre- and post-change samples alone. We propose diffusion-integrated score CUSUM (DI-SCUSUM), a training-free detector. We add Gaussian noise to the samples to form two smooth density estimates and calculate their Hyvärinen scores exactly, without training a score network. For each incoming observation, we sample a diffusion time, perturb the observation, and use the importance-weighted score difference as an increment in the DI-SCUSUM recursion. Under the assumption that observations follow the fixed empirical distributions, the post-change mean increment is proportional to the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the smoothed post-change to the smoothed pre-change empirical distribution. We establish exponential false-alarm scaling and a first-order delay bound that, for a fixed threshold and increment scaling, is inversely proportional to the KL divergence. In the calibrated anisotropic Gaussian simulation, DI-SCUSUM nearly matches likelihood-ratio CUSUM and reduces the measured detection delay by about 91% relative to score-based CUSUM. On MNIST and Oxford-IIIT Pet, DI-SCUSUM also has lower empirical conditional detection delay than SCUSUM at comparable false-alarm levels.
Figures & tables
Appendix figures & tables1 asset
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Method | 500 | 1000 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| CUSUM | 4.3037 | 5.0234 | 5.8452 |
| SCUSUM | 3.9131 | 4.5986 | 5.3257 |
| DI-SCUSUM-quad | 4.3267 | 5.0942 | 5.8760 |
| DI-SCUSUM-exact | 4.2891 | 5.0522 | 5.8115 |