cs.CVOct 9, 2026

Real-Time Traffic Density Estimation: A Hybrid Computer Vision and Predictive Machine Learning Pipeline

Authors: Prince Kwabena Appiah Boadu

Organizations: Department of Computer Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana

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Abstract

Traffic density estimation from camera feeds requires connecting visual perception with short-horizon forecasting. We present a two-stage pipeline that combines vehicle detection and tracking with a spatial logic layer, followed by a temporal estimator. The spatial layer filters bounding boxes by their overlap with a precomputed road mask and extracts per-frame traffic features. LSTM, GRU, and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) estimators use these features to predict five future steps from a ten-frame input window. We benchmark ten detector variants from six families on a dataset of 5,716 annotated frames using a single NVIDIA GPU. YOLOv5l achieves the highest mAP@50:95 of 0.524 at 56 frames per second, while YOLOv8n reaches 258 frames per second at 0.487 mAP@50:95; these rates measure detector inference without tracking or spatial filtering. Temporal evaluation on 29,243 held-out windows yields aggregate R-squared values of 0.858 for GRU, 0.856 for LSTM, and 0.840 for TCN. These metrics measure forecasts of detector-derived telemetry and are dominated by direction variance, rather than establishing absolute traffic-density accuracy. No road mask was available for the evaluation stream, limiting validation of the spatial filtering component. A live run on a third camera stream examines forecasting behavior within the complete pipeline. The results characterize detector speed-accuracy trade-offs and the limitations of short-window traffic telemetry forecasting.

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Density estimation learns probability distributions from data to measure likelihood, detect anomalies, quantify uncertainty, and generate samples.

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