A Plausible Future Is Not a Causal Future: Can Video Models Generate How the World Unfolds?

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of camera viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics, including sampling multiple physically plausible outcomes of the same physical event. In contrast to previous benchmarks, that evaluate video prediction on scenes CRONOS systematically intervenes on four factors -camera viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance- while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a fall, collision, or occlusion, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and particularly viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how generated video quality changes across interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and evaluation code are available at our project page.

Video world models are largely regarded as predictive models of the physical world and are therefore expected to anticipate the consequences of observed events. However, evaluation has mainly focused on reference similarity, physical-law consistency, or judgment plausibility, estimating anticipation only indirectly. We address this directly: when a release or impact has just occurred but its consequence is withheld, can a world model anticipate what should happen next? We introduce an event-anchored evaluation based on 62 controlled real-world free-fall recordings and 124 clips spanning three object types, with fine-grained release and impact annotations and ground-truth trajectories. The protocol separates consequence production, temporal placement, and physical realization. Across six contemporary video generation and world models, Runway and Veo produce release and subsequent impact events at rates above 93% but often initiate them substantially late, whereas Cosmos-Predict-2.5 and MAGI-1 frequently preserve the pre-event state and produce little or no measurable consequence. Among measurable falls, plausible timing does not necessarily imply physically consistent motion. We further conduct a 15-participant, 20-condition human study in which participants describe the expected consequence from a single event-anchored frame and draw its trajectory. Human predictions favor the recorded future in aggregate while revealing genuine ambiguity among plausible continuations. Overall, physical foresight emerges as a sequence of distinct challenges: initiating a consequence, anchoring it in time, and realizing its motion.

Physically Plausible Video Generation (PPVG) has emerged as a promising avenue for modeling real-world physical phenomena. PPVG requires an understanding of commonsense knowledge, which remains a challenge for video diffusion models. Current approaches leverage commonsense reasoning capability of large language models to embed physical concepts into prompts. However, generation models often render physical phenomena as a single moment defined by prompts, due to the lack of conditioning mechanisms for modeling causal progression. In this paper, we view PPVG as generating a sequence of causally connected and dynamically evolving events. To realize this paradigm, we design two key modules: (1) Physics-driven Event Chain Reasoning. This module decomposes the physical phenomena described in prompts into multiple elementary event units, leveraging chain-of-thought reasoning. To mitigate causal ambiguity, we embed physical formulas as constraints to impose deterministic causal dependencies during reasoning. (2) Transition-aware Cross-modal Prompting (TCP). To maintain continuity between events, this module transforms causal event units into temporally aligned vision-language prompts. It summarizes discrete event descriptions to obtain causally consistent narratives, while progressively synthesizing visual keyframes of individual events by interactive editing. Comprehensive experiments on PhyGenBench and VideoPhy benchmarks demonstrate that our framework achieves superior performance in generating physically plausible videos across diverse physical domains. Code is available at https://github.com/ZixuanWang0525/CoECT.