A Time-Synchronous Prequential Evaluation Framework for Next-Week Student Disengagement Prediction from Moodle LMS Logs

Early-warning models built from Learning Management System (LMS) logs aim to predict end-of-course outcomes early enough to enable timely learner support. However, reported "early" performance is often inflated by temporal leakage. This occurs when the pipeline uses information that would not yet be available at the time of prediction. We formalize cutoff-based early outcome prediction under a temporal availability constraint and introduce LEAP (Leakage-Excluded Early-Availability Protocol), which enforces cutoff-first truncation prior to joins and aggregation and audits feature provenance to prevent post-cutoff evidence from entering the benchmark. We instantiate LEAP on the public Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD) as a multi-step protocol for leakage-controlled evaluation across weekly cutoffs. Using several standard learning methods, we evaluate performance using ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, Brier score, and [email protected]. Results show improving performance as the observation window expands, with a marked gain around week~3; Random Forest performs best at the earliest cutoffs, while Gradient Boosting dominates thereafter. Leakage ablations further show that temporal violations, especially through assessment information, can inflate apparent "early" performance.

Sustained effort is essential for realizing the benefits of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), yet many learners disengage or underuse available practice time. We introduce engagement forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on ITS logs, targeting two outcomes central to effort and learning progress: minutes practiced per week and new skills mastered per week. Using interaction log data from 425 middle-school students over a school year, we benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks. We show that these feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to heuristic baselines, including fixed-percentile rules adapted from prior work in other behavioral domains. We find that percentile heuristics systematically overpredict, whereas feature-based models better track student practice trajectories across weeks. To support explainability, we analyze feature importance and ablations, revealing target-specific patterns: effort forecasting is driven mainly by recent activity features, while progress forecasting depends more on learner-state and content difficulty signals. Finally, in a semi-structured user interview case study with eight college tutors, we examine how tutors reasoned about system-generated predictive features when setting goals with students. We find that tutors reasoned differently about effort versus progress goals in ways that mirror our pattern analysis. Together, these results establish a reproducible benchmark for forecasting weekly effort and learning progress in ITS. By making patterns of sustained effort and progress visible at a weekly timescale, engagement forecasting offers a foundation for supporting tutor-learner goal setting and timely instructional decisions.

The prediction of student engagement from the online tutoring videos is difficult because engagement is a multidimensional construct comprising distinct behavioral, emotional, and cognitive states. A reliable prediction requires bringing together different types of behavioral signals as well as expressive cues. Through our analysis of the CASED dataset, it is clear that engagement prediction gets even harder due to the high inter-person variability as well as the subjectivity of the engagement annotation. To tackle these challenges, we develop a multimodal framework that integrates the implicit spatiotemporal features extracted from pretrained video, audio, and image encoders along with structured behavioral modalities like head pose, gaze, facial action units, emotion, and wavelet-based audio features. We integrate these modalities via a Perceiver IO latent bottleneck. Moreover, student and instructor personalities are modeled as variational posteriors over learnable embeddings to enable partial pooling across participants. We employ evidential regression and spectral-normalized Gaussian process classification heads for uncertainty-aware prediction to further improve robustness and calibration. Benchmark on the CASED challenge test set shows that all participating methods converge near random-chance performance, revealing the difficulty of the dataset. In this highly ambiguous regime, our framework achieves competitive performance while uniquely offering well-calibrated uncertainty metrics, demonstrating that reliable risk-quantification is an essential prerequisite for deploying engagement models in real-world educational tools.