INCONVENIENT: A Benchmark to Assess LLM Generalization Capabilities from Convenience Samples

We introduce UnpredictaBench, an evaluation that tests the ability of large language models (LLMs) to capture true underlying distributions. As LLMs are increasingly used as substitutes for other entities (e.g., for humans in economic simulations), the tendency of many models to collapse towards a single plausible answer means a failure to capture the unpredictability of real systems. Recent work on improving output diversity is insufficient for this setting: simulation requires samples that are calibrated to a target distribution, not merely varied outputs. UnpredictaBench isolates a simplified but fundamental version of this problem: sampling outcomes from individual target distributions, including canonical statistical distributions, distributions induced by stochastic programs, and natural-language scenarios that describe random processes. We introduce 448 such problems together with KS@N, a general-purpose evaluation metric that quantifies how well a model outputs approximate black-box target distributions via the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. This is the rate at which we fail to reject model samples of size N against ground-truth samples, with larger N indicating greater difficulty. Tested across open and proprietary models, we find a large spread in distributional capabilities. For instance, when models generate samples of size 100 (KS@100, our standard metric), scores range from near 0 to over 20%. No model is able to achieve over 40% at KS@100, showing significant headroom in distributional sampling as a capability. Although adding reasoning can somewhat increase scores, we find no immediate solution for this issue. UnpredictaBench shows that even simple distributional simulation remains challenging, making it a necessary first step toward using LLMs as stand-ins for complex systems. Project website and resources are available at https://unpredictabenchmark.github.io/.

Benchmark contamination, where evaluation examples appear in a model's training data, threatens the validity of LLM assessment. Statistical tools for detecting training-data membership exist, but have been validated almost exclusively in controlled academic regimes: large, homogeneous pre-training corpora and transparent, single-stage training pipelines. Whether these methods remain reliable in realistic auditing scenarios remains unclear. We identify two under-studied failure modes: distribution shift, which arises when suspect and validation sets violate the IID assumption, and scale constraints, which arise because benchmarks are orders of magnitude smaller than pre-training corpora. We systematically evaluate three leading paradigms, LLM Dataset Inference, Post-Hoc Dataset Inference, and CoDeC, across 25 models from multiple families (including Pythia, OLMo 2, and specialised cultural and medical LLMs) and scales (up to 27B). We then further extend our analysis to frontier industry models. Across 335 evaluations, only 201 yield correct outcomes. LLM Dataset Inference results in false positives under distribution shift, Post-Hoc Dataset Inference is underpowered at benchmark scale, and CoDeC provides only coarse provenance signals that are insufficient to verify individual benchmark splits. Our results reveal a systematic reliability gap between controlled validation and practical benchmark auditing, and show that statistical detection cannot yet replace transparent data provenance. We open-source our benchmark for further research.

Benchmark datasets are critical for reproducible, reliable, and discriminative evaluation of LLMs. However, recent studies reveal that many benchmark datasets are included in pretraining corpora, i.e., $\textit{contaminated}$, which diminishes their value as reliable measures of model generalization. In this paper, we argue that benchmark datasets should be $\textit{contamination-resistant}$, i.e., $\textit{unlearnable}$, but support $\textit{inference}$. To accomplish this, we first highlight the wide prevalence of benchmark dataset contamination and outline the properties of contamination-resistant datasets. Second, we highlight how the asymmetry between the inference and training pipelines in the Transformer architecture can be leveraged to support contamination-resistance. Third, we outline mathematical advancements to make these datasets interoperable across various LLM architectures. Based on the above, we call on the community to ensure the reliability of LLM benchmarking by: (i) advancing novel contamination-resistant methodologies, (ii) developing supporting methods and platforms, and (iii) adopting contamination-resistant benchmarks into existing evaluation pipelines.