Physics-anchored residual quantum neural networks for cloud-cover parameterization

Variational quantum circuits train poorly on chaotic forecasting, usually blamed on barren plateaus (exponentially vanishing gradients). Using an exactly simulable four-qubit variational quantum physics-informed circuit fit to Lorenz-63, we show the barren-plateau explanation fails: the failure is an architectural capacity ceiling fixed by the circuit time-encoding, not its trainable depth. Four measurements support this. (i) A McClean-comparable gradient-variance estimator sits at the local-cost Haar/2-design scale 2^(-2n)=3.9e-3 at n=4; on structurally live parameters it decays about ninefold with depth then saturates there, large enough to train, not an exponential collapse. (ii) At a common budget of 200 optimiser iterations (600, in three stages, for layer-wise), gradient descent, layer-wise, and SPSA reach the same order of magnitude of loss, so no optimiser unlocks a better basin. (iii) The output-Jacobian rank saturates at 33 from five layers on, so depth buys no new output directions. (iv) A Fourier analysis explains why: the qubit-1 phase encoding acts on the initial |0> and is inert, so the maximum accessible frequency is 2.5/t_max=0.83 Hz, identical at every depth and about 4.4x below the narrowest Lorenz component bandwidth. The corrected band has dimension 1+2x5=11 per observable, and 3x11=33 equals the measured rank ceiling exactly, unifying the two diagnostics. A trained depth sweep agrees: mean loss improves with depth then flattens once the rank saturates. We correct our earlier preprint diagnosis, which compared unnormalised gradient norms to the McClean threshold, and place the advantage of fixed reservoirs and classical echo-state networks in architecture, not quantum mechanics.

We study parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) integrated as residual sidecar modules within a ResNet-50 backbone for 31-class neural population decoding---imagined handwriting classification from multi-neuron spike rasters. Under strictly controlled conditions (fixed data splits, seeds, and optimizer), we compare four model variants: baseline, quantum sidecar with frozen input projection, quantum sidecar with backbone-gradient-trained projection, and a measurement-guided variant that aligns angle encodings with circuit measurement outcomes. The backbone-gradient variant improves accuracy in 3/4 seeds (+0.19% mean, 95% CI [-1.10%, +1.48%]) and consistently reduces Linear CKA similarity to baseline features ($Δ=-0.025$, 4/4 seeds), indicating genuine structural reorganization of representations. A nine-variant ablation identifies simple shallow architectures as the most effective and reproducible configuration. Measurement-guided training consistently improves representation geometry without reducing accuracy. All results use noiseless statevector simulation on 4 qubits, a regime chosen to reflect the practical constraints of current near-term superconducting hardware; no quantum computational advantage over classical methods is claimed.

Reservoir computing promises a fast method for handling large amounts of temporal data. This hinges on constructing a good reservoir--a dynamical system capable of transforming inputs into a high-dimensional representation while remembering properties of earlier data. In this work, we introduce a reservoir based on recurrent quantum feature maps where a fixed quantum circuit is reused to encode both current inputs and a classical feedback signal derived from previous outputs. We evaluate the model on the Mackey-Glass time-series prediction task using our recently introduced CP feature map, and find that it achieves lower mean squared error than standard classical baselines, including echo state networks and multilayer perceptrons, while maintaining compact circuit depth and qubit requirements. We further analyze memory capacity and show that the model effectively retains temporal information, consistent with its forecasting accuracy. Finally, we study the impact of realistic noise and find that performance is robust to several noise channels but remains sensitive to two-qubit gate errors, identifying a key limitation for near-term implementations.