Adapting a forecasting system to a changing world classically means retraining. We ask whether the task of continually learning regimes for time series forecasting can be represented by a piece of text: a guidance block, evolved by outcome-driven reflection and used in a frozen LLM forecaster's prompt. On a refreshed multimodal benchmark (weekly search indices, daily currencies, daily commodities, each window paired with web-retrieved news), we run GEPA-style prompt evolution under strict contamination control to prevent the data leakage common in timeseries benchmarks: the forecaster's knowledge cutoff predates every evaluated window. A 900-word evolved guidance carried by Llama-3.3-70B beats TimeSeries Foundation Models (TSFMs) on held-out data (GM MASE 0.776 vs. 0.898 for TabPFN-TS-3), transfers to more recent models without measurable loss, and costs dollars rather than GPU-days to update. We characterize the loop: out-of-loop gains concentrate in the first reflection, in-loop improvements overstate out-of-loop gains 2-3x unless an untouched monitor arbitrates, and error-only objectives silently suppress the text modality. We provide two extensions. First, compiling the guidance into executable code with a TSFM as a callable tool recovers most of the gain deterministically. Second, ablations show the advantage widens at short horizons and that removing the news text does not hurt the guided forecaster, consistent with the text's value being distilled into policy during learning. We argue that continual prompt evolution is a practical, training-free alternative to retraining for multimodal forecasting.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: The evolution loop: forecast with the current guidance, reflect on traces, gate on a minibatch, select on a fixed set under an instance-level Pareto front; an untouched monitor arbitrates and final tiers are spent once.
arm
Commodity
Currency
SearchTrend
ALL
Llama 3.3 + G num (evolved)
0.399
0.864 ∗
1.422
0.776 ∗
Opus 4.6 + G text (transferred)
0.472
1.077
1.110
0.785 ∗
Opus 4.6 + G num (transferred)
0.528
0.905
1.161
0.807 ∗
Llama 3.3 + G text (evolved, text-using)
0.463
0.974
1.341
0.824
TabPFN-TS-3
0.654
0.853 ∗
1.259
0.898
TimesFM-2.5
0.711
0.911
1.256
0.939
Table 1: GM MASE on the 249-window final tier (origins Sep-2025 – Mar-2026, after every model’s cutoff). Same windows, same pipeline, same metric for every row. Best per column in bold; ∗ marks cells within one standard error of the column best (paired on log-MASE).
arm
Commodity
Currency
SearchTrend
ALL
G code (learned: code + TabPFN + LLM)
0.608
0.845 ∗
1.042
0.807 ∗
naive avg. of Llama+G num and Llama+G text
0.420
0.874 ∗
1.316
0.770 ∗
naive avg. of TabPFN and Opus+G text
0.622
0.907
1.136
0.854
best evolved prompt (Llama+G num )
0.399
0.864 ∗
1.422
0.776 ∗
best TSFM (TabPFN-TS-3)
0.654
0.853 ∗
1.259
0.898
Table 2: The compiled system vs. reference arms: GM MASE on the 249-window final tier (full singles in Table 1 ). “Naive avg.” rows are per-window means of two arms’ point forecasts, the TimesX paper’s strongest composition recipe, shown at its best cells from our 17-pair grid (Appendix B ). Best per column in bold; ∗ marks cells within one standard error of the column best (paired on log-MASE).
arm
h=3
h=6
h=12
Llama 3.3 + G num
0.291
0.413
0.776 ∗
Opus 4.6 + G text
0.349
0.472
0.785 ∗
TabPFN-TS-3
0.434
0.565
0.898
TimesFM-2.5
0.453
0.594
0.939
Llama 3.3 unguided
0.463
0.679
1.043
Opus 4.6 unguided
0.367
0.591
1.043
Table 3: Horizon ablation (GM MASE on the 249-window tier; first h steps of the same cached forecasts). Best per column in bold; ∗ marks cells within one standard error of the column best (paired on log-MASE).
arm
Commodity
Currency
SearchTrend
ALL
G num ( h=12 -evolved, truncated)
0.097 ∗
0.439
0.701
0.291
h=3 -evolved champion
0.106 ∗
0.464
0.739
0.311
TabPFN-TS-3
0.267
0.405
0.727
0.434
TimesFM-2.5
0.284
0.484
0.693
0.453
unguided
0.255
0.562
0.757
0.463
Table 4: Optimize-for- h=3 vs. truncate-from- h=12 (GM MASE, 249-window tier, h=3 ). Best per column in bold; ∗ marks cells within one standard error of the column best (paired on log-MASE). In the SearchTrend column no cell differs from the best by more than about one standard error: the domain does not discriminate methods at this horizon.
Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at zero-shot unimodal forecasting using numerical data, but unlike LLMs they cannot consume multimodal, non-numerical context that often shape real-world trajectories. In this work, we bridge this gap and argue for a multimodal time-series forecasting approach that post-trains LLMs to act as context-guided revisors over strong numerical TSFM priors. We introduce PostTime, a post-training recipe combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), along with a methodology to generate automated reasoning traces for forecast revisions. PostTime teaches an LLM to generate context-conditioned forecast interventions -- decisions to revise, preserve, or ignore the TSFM prior based on the multimodal context. We evaluate this approach on the TimesX multimodal forecasting benchmark using a Gemma-3-4B LLM and TimesFM-2.5 TSFM, and show that it significantly outperforms standalone TSFMs, LLM-only baselines, and existing multimodal forecasting approaches.
Text-conditioned time-series forecasting predicts a series from both its numerical history and natural-language context, allowing forecasts to account for events and constraints that the past alone cannot reveal. This requires both reliable numerical forecasting and the ability to interpret contextual information. Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) provide strong numerical forecasts, while large language models (LLMs) can reason over text, but combining their strengths remains challenging because asking an LLM to generate or revise forecast values directly can distort the temporal structure captured by the TSFM. We instead formulate forecasting as a planning problem over TSFM-generated trajectories. The frozen TSFM acts as a simulator that proposes numerical continuations, while the LLM acts as a policy and value function that guides candidate selection and evaluates completed trajectories against the context. We instantiate this as \rc{} (LLM As Forecasting Planner), a training-free framework that bridges the modality gap without retraining either model, using Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) over the forecast horizon with a Ranker LLM as policy and a Judge LLM as value function. Experiments on Context-is-Key and Time-MMD across two TSFM backbones (Chronos and TimesFM) and four LLMs show that \rc{} delivers consistent improvements across model choices, supporting sequential search as an effective training-free approach to text-conditioned forecasting.
Huu Hiep Nguyen, Dung Nguyen, Minh Hoang Nguyen +2
Applied Artificial Intelligence Initiative Deakin University Geelong, Australia
Conventional forecasting methods are trained end-to-end on unimodal time series, which limits their ability to exploit textual information and undermines their generalization in data-scarce scenarios. Recently, large language models (LLMs) and time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated powerful capabilities in complex textual reasoning and zero-shot temporal modeling, respectively. Integrating these strengths to construct a multimodal time series foundation model that jointly leverages temporal and textual information for zero-shot future inference has emerged as a promising research direction. However, the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality multimodal datasets remains a fundamental obstacle. To address this challenge, we propose ChronoSteer, a decoupled agentic framework that learns cross-modal alignment from synthetic paired supervision. Specifically, a pretrained LLM first converts textual events into revision instructions that steer the initial unimodal prediction produced by a frozen TSFM. These revision instructions form an intermediate instruction space that bridges the semantic gap between text and time series while fully leveraging pretrained knowledge. Technically, the instructions are discretized into a compact codebook of instruction anchors, effectively mitigating semantic divergence while reducing the cost of dataset construction. Finally, we adopt a two-stage training strategy to recover the fine-grained magnitude information lost during discretization. Furthermore, we release a leakage-controlled multimodal benchmark constructed with temporal separation and textual context available before the prediction window. When paired with an LLM and trained on synthetic cross-modal alignment data, ChronoSteer achieves a 25.8% improvement in zero-shot prediction accuracy over its unimodal backbone, and outperforms prior state-of-the-art unimodal and multimodal ...
Chengsen Wang, Qi Qi, Zhongwen Rao +2
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications · Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab