Text-Anchored Modality Experts with Uncertainty-Guided Routing for Multimodal Sentiment Analysis

Video-based Multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA) must handle information from text, audio, and image sequence in human speaking videos, yet current methods often fail to integrate modalities with task awareness. Most models treat video sentiment prediction as a single task, overlooking its ordinal nature, and their fusion strategies struggle to capture diverse unique and synergic cues across modalities. To address these limitations, we adopt a divide-and-conquer perspective by reformulating MSA as an ordinal regression problem and decoupling it into polarity recognition and intensity prediction. Driven by information theory, we introduce a Mixture-of-Bottleneck (MoB) framework that assigns different latents to polarity- and intensity-specific experts for different modalities. With the learning of information bottleneck, each expert learns compact and task-relevant representations while filtering out redundancy and noise. A multimodal bottleneck routing fusion module then fuses these expert latents with hard mining strategy, guiding the prediction in the ordinal sentiment space. Extensive experiments on 4 MSA datasets and 4 language models show that MoB effectively leverages informative latents from diverse modalities and captures general sentiment structure. Beyond stronger performance, MoB comprehensively captures fine-grained intra- and inter-modal dynamics, enabling more trustworthy localization of nuanced video sentiment signals.

Multimodal sentiment analysis relies on language, visual, and acoustic cues, but utterance-level modality quality may vary due to occlusion, background noise, motion blur, or imperfect transcripts, causing conventional fusion to over-trust unreliable modalities. We propose MRUF, a reliability-aware fusion method that combines multi-granularity routing with uncertainty-aware calibration. MRUF summarizes sentiment-relevant representations, performs subspace- and modality-level routing, and supervises modality routing with leave-one-out error increases to estimate utterance-level modality importance. It further predicts modality-wise uncertainty and refines modality gates through inverse-variance reweighting, while modality-invariant contrastive alignment stabilizes the shared representation space. Experiments on CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI under aligned and unaligned settings show consistent improvements over strong baselines, and mechanism analysis verifies that modalities with higher predicted uncertainty receive lower fusion weights.

Multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA) has made considerable progress in recent years. Existing MSA methods mainly learn shared multimodal representations or train unimodal predictors with a common multimodal label. However, assigning the shared label to every modality can obscure modality-specific sentiment, while direct fusion may overemphasize unreliable predictions when modalities disagree. To address these issues, we propose Uncertainty-Guided Multimodal Consensus (UMC), which first recovers continuous unimodal pseudo-labels and then forms a reliability-aware consensus across modalities. Our method consists of two key components: i) Continuous Prototype-Guided Label Recovery (CPLR), which combines heteroscedastic predictions with ordered sentiment prototypes and uses confidence and label conflict to refine continuous unimodal pseudo-labels, and ii) Reliability and Precision Consensus (RPC), which estimates sample-dependent modality reliability from predictive statistics and cross-modal disagreement and combines it with predictive precision through a closed-form consensus solver. Extensive experiments conducted on four publicly available MSA datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed model.