From Complex Histories to Simple Predictors: Predictive Dimension in Dynamic Graph Learning

Dynamic graph learning models how entities and their relations evolve from historical observations to predict future graph states. Existing methods do not fully address dynamic graph world modelling, which requires learning transitions from temporal context to future latent graph states. This is difficult for three reasons: nodes and relations rely on different historical evidence, structural evolution is path-dependent, and future snapshots provide sparse and realization-specific targets. We propose Dynamic Graph World Modelling (DyG-WM), the first framework to jointly predict future node and relation representations from temporal context by answering three questions: what has evolved, how it evolved, and what will evolve next. To capture what has evolved, a historical node-relation context encoder summarizes node-neighborhood trajectories and pair-specific histories. To characterize how it evolved, a node-relation path-signature encoder captures ordered structural changes. To predict what will evolve next, a dual-level joint-embedding objective predicts target-snapshot node and relation representations without reconstructing the raw graph. Experiments on 12 link-prediction and two node-classification datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of DyG-WM across both tasks.

Aggregate performance on continuous-time dynamic graphs (CTDGs) combines, in a single score, the portion attributable to known temporal regularities and the additional predictive power of neural models. This study separates the two at the query level. We construct a mechanism-constrained predictor that uses pair recurrence, recency and history position, renewal patterns, and short sequential transitions while learning the compatibility within each mechanism. Across four CTDG datasets, this predictor recovers a substantial portion of the performance of strong neural baselines, and the recovered performance quickly saturates with a small, dataset-specific set of explicit mechanisms. Neural residuals concentrate on queries for which the positive and negative candidates have similar mechanism-execution profiles. Allowing conditional interactions among mechanisms is more effective than simply reweighting their existing contributions. Conditioning the contribution of one mechanism on the execution state of another recovers 54.9-73.2% of the original neural-only queries and improves overall paired accuracy on all four datasets. Although the magnitude of the effect varies across datasets, these results show that the performance gap of neural CTDG models need not be treated solely as an opaque difference in representational capacity. At least part of the gap is localized to queries with similar candidate execution profiles and can be functionally explained by conditional coordination among known, low-dimensional mechanisms.

Representation learning on dynamic graphs requires capturing complex dependencies that evolve across both time and structure. Existing approaches typically adopt fixed temporal decay schemes or predetermined structural propagation depths, limiting their ability to generalize across graphs with diverse interaction frequencies and topological characteristics. We propose Dual-Scale Retentive Dynamics (DSRD), a unified framework that maintains a retentive representation state encoding both temporal memory and structural context. DSRD introduces two key components: (i) a retentive state with dual-scale adaptation that jointly models temporal dynamics and structural propagation within a single recurrent formulation, and (ii) adaptive decay kernels with learnable time-sensitivity parameters that automatically balance short-term responsiveness and long-term retention based on the underlying interaction patterns. We provide theoretical analysis establishing the equivalence between event-wise parallel aggregation and efficient recurrent state updates, as well as stability and boundedness guarantees for the learned dynamics. Extensive experiments on 14 real-world benchmarks demonstrate that DSRD consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance on both link prediction and node classification tasks, with strong generalization across transductive and inductive settings.