A Digital Twin to Improve Cyber-Social Impact

Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPS) face growing threats from cyber-attacks that exploit sensor and control vulnerabilities. Digital Twin (DT) technology can detect anomalies via predictive modelling, but current methods cannot distinguish attack types and often rely on costly full-system shutdowns. This paper presents i-SDT (intelligent Self-Defending DT), combining hydraulically-regularized predictive modelling, multi-class attack discrimination, and adaptive resilient control. Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs) with differentiable conservation constraints capture nominal dynamics and improve robustness to adversarial manipulations. A recurrent residual encoder with Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) separates normal operation from single- and multi-stage attacks in latent space. When attacks are confirmed, Model Predictive Control (MPC) uses uncertainty-aware DT predictions to keep operations safe without shutdown. Evaluation on SWaT and WADI datasets shows major gains in detection accuracy, 44.1% fewer false alarms, and 56.3% lower operational costs in simulation-in-the-loop evaluation. with sub-second inference latency confirming real-time feasibility on plant-level workstations, i-SDT advances autonomous cyber-physical defense while maintaining operational resilience.

Cyber-physical systems often contend with incomplete architectural documentation or outdated information resulting from legacy technologies, knowledge management gaps, and the complexity of integrating diverse subsystems over extended operational lifecycles. This architectural incompleteness impedes reliable security assessment, as inaccurate or missing architectural knowledge limits the identification of system dependencies, attack surfaces, and risk propagation pathways. To address this foundational challenge, this paper introduces ASTRAL (Architecture-Centric Security Threat Risk Assessment using LLMs), an architecture-centric security assessment technique implemented in a prototype tool powered by multimodal LLMs. The proposed approach assists practitioners in reconstructing and analysing CPS architectures when documentation is fragmented or absent. By leveraging prompt chaining, few-shot learning, and architectural reasoning, ASTRAL extracts and synthesises system representations from disparate data sources. By integrating LLM reasoning with architectural modelling, our approach supports adaptive threat identification and quantitative risk estimation for cyber-physical systems. We evaluated the approach through an ablation study across multiple CPS case studies and an expert evaluation involving 14 experienced cybersecurity practitioners. Practitioner feedback suggests that ASTRAL is useful and reliable for supporting architecture-centric security assessment. Overall, the results indicate that the approach can support more informed cyber risk management decisions.

The increasing penetrations of the critical infrastructure sector in the United States with intelligent digital technologies have greatly increased exposure to advanced cyber adversaries and operational vulnerabilities. AI-powered governance and automated decision-making systems are becoming a key part of the operation of critical infrastructure systems, including energy, healthcare, transportation, financial services, and communication infrastructure, in order to improve efficiency and strategic management. The growing cyber threat environment, such as Distributed Denial of Service (DDos) attacks, botnets, ransomware, and Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) pose significant challenges to infrastructure resilience, cyber security reliability, and governance trustworthiness. In a changing attack landscape and dynamic network environment, traditional cybersecurity mechanisms can often fall short of meeting the evolving needs and protecting critical systems. This study will develop a resilient cyber risk analytics and model reliability assessment framework to support intelligent governance and decision support for cyber risk exposure in the U.S. critical infrastructure environment. This study is based on the CICIDS2017 dataset for the development and testing of intrusion detection system models and cyber risk prediction models based on machine learning. Various classifiers like XGBoost, Random Forest, and Decision Tree are used to detect malicious activities on the network and determine the level of cyber risk. Furthermore, the Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques are integrated to enhance transparency, interpretability, and trust in cybersecurity decision-making processes. The proposed framework presents the reliability and resilience of the model by having various performance measures such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, ROC-AUC, and false positive rate.