cs.CVOct 23, 2026

The Paired Thermal Channel Is Two Orthogonal Axes: A Controlled Attribution Study of Calibration Cost and Detection Gain in Infrared Person Detection

Authors: Tian Zhang, Yang Chen, Bing Bai, Weikai He, Xiang Gao, Zhirong Su

Organizations: School of Information Engineering, Shandong Management University, Jinan, China. · School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. · School of Aeronautics, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan, China. · School of Business, Shandong Management University, Jinan, China.

Abstract

The calibrated thermal channel in infrared person detection comprises two structurally orthogonal axes. True calibrated ΔTΔT outperforms scale-matched grayscale pseudo-ΔTΔT by +0.0221+0.0221 mAP (paired Wilcoxon p=0.0098p=0.0098, Cohen's d=+1.08d=+1.08), confirming that the calibrated channel carries information the grayscale channel lacks. The calibration axis is driven by the joint pairing-scale condition. Preserving both paired correspondence and absolute calibrated scale raises expected calibration error (ECE) from ≈0.05\approx 0.05 to 0.1420.142. The 2×22\times 2 interaction (p=0.0059p=0.0059) localizes the rise to this condition. Breaking either factor alone returns ECE to the broken-factor level (true-vs-const p=0.002p=0.002; true-vs-shuffled p=0.002p=0.002). Under post-hoc temperature scaling, the pairing cost survives recalibration (p=0.002p=0.002), while the scale cost is largely absorbed (p=0.16p=0.16). As regards the detection axis, the gain stems from structural de-structuring. Phase randomization, which destroys spatial structure while preserving per-sample variance, yields +0.0185+0.0185 mAP over true ΔTΔT on FLIR ADAS (p=0.014p=0.014, d=+0.96d=+0.96). The FLAME3 gain is +0.0064+0.0064 mAP (p=0.078p=0.078, n=8). On the calibration axis, the same intervention is insignificant on FLIR ADAS (p=0.47p=0.47) but significant on FLAME3 (p=0.0078p=0.0078). These findings rest on a five-arm controlled attribution with temperature-evidential learning (TEL) as the testbed. TEL obtains a single evidence-derived routing scalar together with a complementary diagnostic entropy, and establishes a finite-evidence degeneracy theorem proving that the acquisition product degenerates to this scalar with a closed-form bound. A physical 0.5∘0.5^\circC threshold admits cross-dataset physical readings, whereas a gray threshold of 2020 inverts without physical interpretation.

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