Auditing evaluation artifacts and data leakage in large language model systems for rare disease diagnosis

Rare diseases (RDs) affect an estimated 300 million people globally, leaving patients to navigate a protracted diagnostic odyssey constrained by clinical scarcity and fragmented medical knowledge. Artificial intelligence (AI) has progressively advanced RD diagnostics, from symbolic methods and deep learning to large language model (LLM)-based systems. However, each paradigm carries structural limitations: symbolic methods are bounded by knowledge completeness, neural models sacrifice interpretability, and LLM-based systems are vulnerable to evaluation biases like data leakage. In this study, we introduce FusionRare, a unified multiparadigm fusion framework integrating knowledge-driven symbolic reasoning, deep-learning pattern recognition, case-based patient retrieval, and LLM-based heuristic inference via statistical meta-aggregation and knowledge-enhanced agentic reflection. Evaluated on 2,528 strictly isolated clinical cases, FusionRare achieves state-of-the-art RD prioritization, attaining a macro-averaged Recall @1 of 51% for phenotype-only diagnosis and 79% for phenotype-genotype joint analysis. These results represent decisive advantages over the advanced agentic system DeepRare, frontier LLMs including GPT 5.5, and specialized tools like PhenoBrain and LIRICAL under stringent anti-leakage protocols. A randomized, crossover clinician-AI validation demonstrated that FusionRare elevates the true diagnostic rank in 45% of decisions, improves physician confidence in 62%, and reduces time to diagnosis by 21%. These findings indicate that reconciling these orthogonal AI paradigms significantly enhances diagnostic capabilities, bridging the gap between computational benchmarks and actionable clinical reliability. More broadly, this work provides a replicable framework for deploying trustworthy diagnostic AI across complex, high-stakes, and underserved medical domains.

Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong results on many medical benchmarks, but their clinical reasoning remains difficult to evaluate reliably. A central risk is an evaluation illusion: fluent and well-structured explanations can appear clinically convincing even when the final diagnosis is incorrect. We introduce CLExEval, a human-in-the-loop framework for evaluating LLM clinical reasoning under progressive information masking. CLExEval combines 5,600 expert-physician annotations with 200 clinical reasoning traces derived from 40 rare diagnostic cases. Our analysis identifies three recurring failure patterns: (i) verbosity bias, where GPT-4o-mini's diagnostic accuracy drops from 95.0% to 32.5% under information scarcity; (ii) a hidden knowledge paradox, where a specialist model reaches 92.5% maximum diagnostic potential but fails to retrieve that knowledge reliably in verbose contexts; and (iii) a 68.6% reasoning-to-output mismatch, where correct diagnoses appear in reasoning traces but are not reflected in final answers. We further evaluate the LLM-as-a-Judge paradigm on a human-verified failure set (n = 142). GPT-4o-mini approved 47.9% of clinically incorrect outputs, while HuatuoGPT-o1 approved all validly scored failures and showed a positive self-preference bias. These results suggest that standalone automated clinical evaluations can substantially overestimate clinical reliability without expert-grounded validation.

Rare diseases affect millions of individuals worldwide, yet timely diagnosis remains a major public health challenge due to scarcity of specialized clinical expertise. While large language models (LLMs) show promise to support rare disease diagnosis, current models are constrained by insufficient clinical deployability, limited clinically grounded evidence, and scarcity of training data. Here we present RaDaR (Rare Disease navigatoR), an open-source, compact reasoning LLM (32B parameters) for rare disease diagnosis. RaDaR was trained with 49,170 publicly available free-text cases and 104,666 synthetic cases with reasoning-enhanced training. RaDaR showed the strongest performance among evaluated open-source models, including the 671B DeepSeek-R1, across public benchmarks and four external validation centers. In a retrospective cohort, RaDaR prioritized the final diagnosis before documented clinical suspicion in 61.06 percent of cases, corresponding to a potential lead time of 1.87 months and 50.18 percent of the within-center interval. In a randomized physician-assistance trial, RaDaR assistance improved physicians' rare-disease diagnostic accuracy by 21.44 percentage points compared with internet search alone. Synthetic-data ablations suggested that phenotype-anchored narratives provide useful training signal for long-tail rare diseases, with a monotonic scaling trend within the tested data range. Together, RaDaR and its development and validation framework provide a deployable rare-disease reasoning model and a reproducible development framework for diagnostic AI under data scarcity.