Explainable Prediction of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams driven by Coronal Holes via Topological Data Analysis

Accurately predicting fast solar wind conditions is challenging, as uncertainties are large and unquantified by traditional single-value prediction models. In particular, the risks of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), which can cause damage to technological infrastructure, cannot be reliably assessed without probabilistic forecasts. We present PROSWIN, a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts the hourly solar wind speed (SWS) at Earth with a four-day lead time. The approach combines solar images and magnetograms using a deep neural network coupled to a distributional regression algorithm. Because standard error metrics underweight the relevance of HSS peaks, we further introduce the prediction score, a model-selection metric that jointly rewards timeline and HSS peak accuracy. On 14 years of data, our forecast achieves very well-calibrated uncertainties (<1% average deviation). Using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a metric that assesses distributional accuracy, we obtain a timeline CRPS of 41.0 km/s, an HSS peak CRPS of 45.3 km/s, and a prediction score of 42.3 km/s. We find that the 171 Å channel is an important complement to the typically used 193 Å and 211 Å channels and that the prediction score for model selection improves the applicability of the model. Compared to selected models from the literature, ours is the only one that is accurate for both timeline and HSS peak values, rather than trading one off against the other. These results support the advantages of probabilistic over single-value solar wind models. The introduced methods are also transferable to other forecasting problems.

Whether the slow solar wind originates from one coronal source or two distinct channels remains a central open question in heliophysics. Resolving this requires unsupervised separation of two populations that arrive at nearly the same bulk speed and differ mainly in heavy-ion composition. We present Solar-CDC, a self-supervised contrastive deep clustering (CDC) framework that maps plasma observables to a latent space via a Transformer encoder, optimizes a triplet margin loss, and updates pseudo-labels via $k$-means. Theoretically, we prove that neighborhood-preserving embeddings such as t-SNE and UMAP are fundamentally constrained. Preserving the neighbor graph leaves the cross-cluster cut fraction unchanged, and preserving all but a fraction $\varepsilon$ of its links moves that fraction by at most $\varepsilon$. Neither bound depends on the target dimension. A margin objective rewrites the graph and drives the cut fraction to zero. Empirically, on 30,602 Solar Orbiter observations, thirty combinations of dimensionality reduction and clustering peak at a silhouette of $0.454$, whereas Solar-CDC reaches $0.869$. Escaping the geometric bound alone does not guarantee physical validity: TriMap also optimizes triplets and reaches $0.824$, yet its clusters score below chance against the published composition taxonomy. Solar-CDC instead recovers clusters with mean charge-state ratios of $0.080$, $0.160$, and $0.400$, placing the intermediate population inside the window associated with coronal-hole boundaries. Even when the defining charge-state ratio is withheld from the inputs entirely, the model still recovers the taxonomy defined on it. Solar-CDC thus connects self-supervised representation learning to coronal source diagnostics. Importantly, a learning loss recovers physical populations only when driven by dynamically updated physically-aware clusters rather than distances.

In this work, we develop, for the first time, a supervised classification framework with class-dependent rewards (CDR) to predict $\geq$MM flares within 24 hr. We construct multiple datasets, covering knowledge-informed features and line-of sight (LOS) magnetograms. We also apply three deep learning models (CNN, CNN-BiLSTM, and Transformer) and three CDR counterparts (CDR-CNN, CDR-CNN-BiLSTM, and CDR-Transformer). First, we analyze the importance of LOS magnetic field parameters with the Transformer, then compare its performance using LOS-only, vector-only, and combined magnetic field parameters. Second, we compare flare prediction performance based on CDR models versus deep learning counterparts. Third, we perform sensitivity analysis on reward engineering for CDR models. Fourth, we use the SHAP method for model interpretability. Finally, we conduct performance comparison between our models and NASA/CCMC. The main findings are: (1)Among LOS feature combinations, R_VALUE and AREA_ACR consistently yield the best results. (2)Transformer achieves better performance with combined LOS and vector magnetic field data than with either alone. (3)Models using knowledge-informed features outperform those using magnetograms. (4)While CNN and CNN-BiLSTM outperform their CDR counterparts on magnetograms, CDR-Transformer is slightly superior to its deep learning counterpart when using knowledge-informed features. Among all models, CDR-Transformer achieves the best performance. (5)The predictive performance of the CDR models is not overly sensitive to the reward choices.(6)Through SHAP analysis, the CDR model tends to regard TOTUSJH as more important, while the Transformer tends to prioritize R_VALUE more.(7)Under identical prediction time and active region (AR) number, the CDR-Transformer shows superior predictive capabilities compared to NASA/CCMC.