Crop Yield Prediction Using Regression Models: A Comparative Evaluation of Model Performance

Crop yield prediction requires substantial data to train scalable models. However, creating yield prediction datasets is constrained by high acquisition costs, heterogeneous data quality, and data privacy regulations. Consequently, existing datasets are scarce, low in quality, or limited to regional levels or single crop types, hindering the development of scalable data-driven solutions. In this work, we release YieldSAT, a large, high-quality, and multimodal dataset for high-resolution crop yield prediction. YieldSAT spans various climate zones across multiple countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Germany, and includes major crop types, including corn, rapeseed, soybeans, and wheat, across 2,173 expert-curated fields. In total, over 12.2 million yield samples are available, each with a spatial resolution of 10 m. Each field is paired with multispectral satellite imagery, resulting in 113,555 labeled satellite images, complemented by auxiliary environmental data. We demonstrate the potential of large-scale and high-resolution crop yield prediction as a pixel regression task by comparing various deep learning models and data fusion architectures. Furthermore, we highlight open challenges arising from severe distribution shifts in the ground truth data under real-world conditions. To mitigate this, we explore a domain-informed Deep Ensemble approach that exhibits significant performance gains. The dataset is available at https://yieldsat.github.io/.

Yield forecasts help planners and farmers decide on inputs, storage and imports, but small agricultural tables can make reported accuracy fail on a new season. We built a crop-yield prototype for Punjab, Pakistan that combines Random Forest, XGBoost, support vector regression and a Ridge-stacked ensemble with a MobileNetV2 leaf-health classifier, and deployed it as a web application with SHAP explanations. A random 80/20 split of a merged Kaggle-derived table (414 rows) gives the ensemble an R2 of 0.991. An audit showed that the table contains only 46 independent observations: a join with nine temperature records per year copied every crop-year nine times. Holding out whole years takes XGBoost on the same rows from R2 = 0.994 to -0.20. On deduplicated data, and on a longer FAOSTAT table (1990-2024, 70 observations), a per-crop linear trend (leave-one-year-out RMSE 0.29 Ton/Ha) beats every model not given the year (0.84-1.06). Neither pesticide use nor national temperature change explains the trend residuals. An apparent pesticide gain in the Kaggle table disappears on FAOSTAT, where the pesticide series is mostly imputed and the two releases disagree. An independent district-level wheat panel (36 districts, 13 seasons) shows that most variation in Punjab is spatial and that a district mean with a common trend matches the learned models. The leaf classifier reaches 99.87% accuracy on held-out PlantVillage images and recalls 96.4% of 336 unseen diseased leaves after near-duplicates were removed. However, no leaf image is paired with a yield record, so the health score used in the yield models had to be constructed and adds nothing. We report these negative findings together with the prototype.

This paper proposes a new method for crop yield prediction, which is essential for developing management strategies, informing insurance assessments, and ensuring long-term food security. Although existing data-driven approaches have shown promise in this domain, their performance often degrades when applied across large geographic regions and long time periods. This limitation arises from two key challenges: (1) difficulty in jointly capturing short-term and long-term temporal patterns, and (2) inability to effectively accommodate spatial data variability in agricultural systems. Ignoring these issues often leads to unreliable predictions for specific regions or years, which ultimately affects policy decisions and resource allocation. In this paper, we propose a new predictive framework to address these challenges. First, we introduce a new backbone model architecture that captures both short-term daily-scale crop growth dynamics and long-term dependencies across years. To further improve generalization across diverse spatial regions, we augment this model with a retrieval-based adaptation strategy. Recognizing the substantial yield variation across years, we design a novel retrieval-and-refinement pipeline that adjusts retrieved samples by removing cross-year bias not explained by input features. Our experiments on real-world county-level corn yield data over 630 counties in the US demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms different types of baselines. The results also verify the effectiveness of the retrieval-based augmentation method in improving model robustness under spatial heterogeneity.