SciGame: Let Agents Play the Scientific Discovery Games in the Real and Counterfactual World

Building AI Scientist agents with Large Language Models (LLMs) has recently attracted growing attention. Since scientific discovery fundamentally relies on uncovering causal relationships from observations, the capability of causal thinking, i.e., distinguishing causation from correlation and recognizing hidden biases, is essential to LLM agents. Although a number of benchmarks exist for AI Scientists, none explicitly incorporate challenges from selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders that widely exist in real-world scientific discovery. To this end, we present CausalGame, a benchmark that evaluates the causal thinking capabilities of LLM agents through interactive games. CausalGame asks LLM agents to actively design experimental protocols, collect observation data, and derive a final solution with an explanation report. To emulate realistic scientific discovery challenges, we design 14 scenarios that incorporate selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders. Across 30 LLM agents, none demonstrates reliable causal thinking: the best model reaches only 68.0% survival against analytical optima of 78-85%, and merely 5-7% of sessions receive credits on the causal-reasoning rubrics. CausalGame provides a scalable and controlled testbed for evaluating the causal thinking of AI Scientist agents.

Large language model agents have shown promising capabilities in data-driven scientific discovery tasks, where an agent interacts with an execution environment and produces a statistical claim. Long-horizon scientific analysis remains constrained by the lack of process supervised environments over real-world scientific data. This paper introduces SciDisco, a scalable framework for training Scientific Discovery agents in process-verifiable environments. SciThèque compiles hypotheses, datasets, hidden evidence graphs, and verifiers into task environments where analytical progress can be checked during interaction. DAG-grounded trajectory synthesis uses these environments to construct verifier-filtered multi-turn demonstrations. DiscoPO then uses the environment as the source of training signal, assigning turn-level credit to actions that produce verifiable analytical evidence. Experiments show that SciDisco-14B reaches state-of-the-art on hypothesis-driven scientific data analysis benchmarks.

Scientific law discovery has long been central to scientific progress, proceeding through iterative cycles of generating hypotheses, testing them against empirical evidence, and refining them under scientific constraints. As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly involved in scientific research, whether they can discover scientific laws and how to evaluate this ability remain open questions. A central evaluation challenge is to move beyond familiar published equations while keeping discovery tasks grounded in scientific data and constraints. We introduce SciLaws-Bench, a curated collection of scientific task packages grounded in the source literature, each linking a scientific problem, supporting data, published reference equations, and scientific-validity rubrics. Through agent-assisted curation and human verification, we assemble 118 problems spanning six disciplines, drawing on 381 papers, 291 candidate laws, and roughly 8M data points. Each problem supports two complementary evaluation settings. SciLaws-Real uses fixed scientific data to evaluate proposed laws for held-out predictive fit and scientific validity. SciLaws-Parallel evaluates recovery of a newly synthesized structural variant of a published equation through active queries to a simulator calibrated to the source data. Our evaluation reveals three limitations: good predictive fit need not imply scientific validity, recovering a published formula does not establish recovery of its new structural terms, and candidate selection remains a bottleneck in scientific law discovery. Project page: https://yiyihum.github.io/SciLaws-Bench