NLP-based Message Prioritisation for Opportunistic Routing: A Case Study of Nepal Earthquake Emergency Communication

Classifying disaster-related social-media posts into humanitarian information labels is challenging because individual messages are typically short and context-limited, humanitarian categories can overlap semantically, and the CrisisBench label distribution is strongly imbalanced. This study investigates whether lightweight lexical machine-learning methods can provide effective and computationally efficient classification under these conditions. Using the CrisisBench v1.0 English humanitarian task, comprising 87,455 records across predefined Train, Development and Test splits, we conduct a controlled comparison of TF-IDF representations and lightweight classifiers, with Macro-F1 as the primary model-selection metric. Beyond aggregate predictive performance, the study jointly examines per-label behaviour, directional error patterns, relative decision margins, computational requirements, and the effect of domain-specific training through a tropical-cyclone specialist model. The selected balanced LinearSVC with unigram-bigram TF-IDF and C=0.5 achieved an Accuracy of 0.8282, a Macro-F1 of 0.6578 and a Weighted-F1 of 0.8315 on the held-out Test split. Lower decision margins were substantially associated with prediction errors, while the tropical-cyclone specialist achieved modestly higher in-domain aggregate performance with substantially lower feature and fitting requirements. The study contributes a controlled, label-sensitive and resource-aware evaluation of lightweight humanitarian text classification that characterises not only aggregate performance, but also where these models fail and how their behaviour changes under domain-specific training.

How do people cope when disaster strikes and can we detect it at scale, in real time, from what they write? This study addresses that question using over one million Turkish-language tweets posted in the aftermath of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkiye, which unfolded in a deeply polarized political context just months before a national election. Drawing on Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) coping theory, we develop a multi-label BERTurk classifier to detect three coping styles (problem-focused, emotion-focused, and meaning-making) across four theoretically motivated crisis phases. BERTurk achieves a macro F1 of 0.693, substantially outperforming a zero-shot mDeBERTa baseline (macro F1 = 0.324). Applied to the full corpus, the classifier reveals a clear temporal trajectory: problem-focused coping dominates the urgency phase and declines sharply, emotion-focused coping rises and stabilizes, and meaning-making increases monotonically. Anger correlates most strongly with meaning-making (Spearman r = 0.387), suggesting it functions as a mobilizing force toward blame attribution rather than practical action. These findings demonstrate that coping theory can be reliably operationalized in real-world digital crisis data and that doing so can help humanitarian organizations tailor their responses to where a population actually is.

Roadblocks in Bolivia are a social conflict phenomenon with devastating economic impacts, estimated at losses equivalent to 4% of the national Gross Domestic Product. Despite their recurrence and impact, there is a lack of local predictive systems to anticipate these events for logistical decision-making. This paper presents a hybrid probabilistic forecasting system that integrates time series decomposition (Prophet) with natural language processing (NLP) techniques applied to a six-year corpus of Bolivian news coverage. The methodology employs vector semantic embeddings and zero-shot classification models to capture signals of discursive escalation prior to the materialization of the roadblocks. Using an expanding walk-forward validation scheme applied over 1,762 days and seven forecasting horizons (H+1 to H+7), seven internal configurations and four external benchmarks were compared, including SARIMA and LightGBM. The results demonstrate that the hybrid configuration (Prophet + NLP, C6) consistently outperforms purely statistical models, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.677 at H+1 and reducing the Brier Score by 10.9% relative to the baseline temporal model (0.220 vs. 0.247), maintaining a statistically significant error reduction across all evaluated horizons ($p < 0.02$). This research validates that the integration of semantic news signals allows for the detection of social tension peaks not captured by historical inertia, providing a technical tool for risk management in critical transport corridors.