Vision-Based Density Estimation for Adaptive Traffic Control
Authors: Mohammad Usaid, Deepak Silaych, Hrithik Mhatre, Archak Mittal
Organizations: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California San Diego
Traffic congestion is becoming a critical challenge in rapidly growing urban centers, particularly in developing nations where rapid urbanization and inadequate transport infrastructure place increasing strain on transport networks. In highly heterogeneous and chaotic traffic flows, camera-based traffic-state estimation is limited by severe vehicle occlusion and overlap. In this paper, we propose a framework to optimize traffic flow directly from stochastic visual observations. The architecture is structurally decoupled into three primary components: (a) vehicle density estimation, (b) predictive dynamics modeling, and (c) policy optimization. The proposed methodology introduces a convolutional neural network (CNN) that learns the mapping from camera feeds to spatial density maps, utilizing an adaptive k-nearest-neighbor (k-NN) Gaussian kernel to handle varying congestion levels. This feeds into an ST3DNet predictive module for spatiotemporal forecasting, followed by a hierarchical Graph-Transformer Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) algorithm to optimize signal phases. The density estimation stage was evaluated on 40 annotated intersection images from Rambagh 4, Jaipur, India, with a reported five-fold validation mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.32±0.95 vehicles and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 14.5%. These results pertain to the perception component; empirical training and evaluation of the forecasting and control stages remain future work.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Three-stage pipeline. Current density and forecast density enter the controller state; the controller selects traffic-signal phases.
Figure 2: Example camera frame (A), annotation-derived density map (B), and YOLO26 detections (C). This illustration is not a benchmark comparison.
Figure 3: Vehicle density estimator: convolutional stem, two residual blocks, and a 32→64→1000→400→1 regression head.
Figure 4: ST3DNet-based forecasting architecture with closeness and weekly branches, spatial recalibration, and parametric fusion.
Figure 5: Hierarchical signal controller with sub-node encoding, set-based aggregation, GATv2 and GRU processing, and phase-policy and state-value heads.
Configuration
Mean Fold MAE
Ensemble MAE
Ensemble MAPE
Max Error
Round 1 (single model, fixed σ )
2.84
—
—
—
Round 2 (5-fold, fixed σ=1.5 )
3.07 ± 1.03
1.83
9.2%
8.7
Round 3 (5-fold, adaptive σ )
3.32 ± 0.95
1.44
6.7%
5.1
Table 1: 5-fold cross-validation results across three training rounds on 40 real-world intersection images (vehicle counts 12–49). Mean Fold MAE is the mean validation MAE across five folds. The Ensemble columns are computed over the full 40-sample dataset, where four of the five ensemble members have seen each image during training, and are therefore in-sample rather than held-out.
Traffic density estimation from camera feeds requires connecting visual perception with short-horizon forecasting. We present a two-stage pipeline that combines vehicle detection and tracking with a spatial logic layer, followed by a temporal estimator. The spatial layer filters bounding boxes by their overlap with a precomputed road mask and extracts per-frame traffic features. LSTM, GRU, and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) estimators use these features to predict five future steps from a ten-frame input window. We benchmark ten detector variants from six families on a dataset of 5,716 annotated frames using a single NVIDIA GPU. YOLOv5l achieves the highest mAP@50:95 of 0.524 at 56 frames per second, while YOLOv8n reaches 258 frames per second at 0.487 mAP@50:95; these rates measure detector inference without tracking or spatial filtering. Temporal evaluation on 29,243 held-out windows yields aggregate R-squared values of 0.858 for GRU, 0.856 for LSTM, and 0.840 for TCN. These metrics measure forecasts of detector-derived telemetry and are dominated by direction variance, rather than establishing absolute traffic-density accuracy. No road mask was available for the evaluation stream, limiting validation of the spatial filtering component. A live run on a third camera stream examines forecasting behavior within the complete pipeline. The results characterize detector speed-accuracy trade-offs and the limitations of short-window traffic telemetry forecasting.
Prince Kwabena Appiah Boadu
Department of Computer Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
Learning-based traffic signal control (TSC) has achieved promising performance, but most methods rely on structured traffic states that must be estimated from sensor observations in real deployments. Visual TSC learns signal decisions directly from images, yet existing methods depend on fixed roadside cameras and remain tied to specific intersection configurations and visual domains. UAVs offer on-demand bird's-eye-view (BEV) observations that jointly capture intersection topology and traffic dynamics, making them a promising sensing platform for visual TSC. We present BEVLight, a generalizable TSC framework that directly maps BEV observations to signal actions. BEVLight grounds visual features onto individual lanes and composes them along the junction topology into movement and phase representations, allowing a shared policy to score candidate phases across heterogeneous intersection layouts and signal plans. To train the policy, we develop a web-based virtual teleoperation platform and collect over 5K human control decisions together with their underlying traffic states. Simulator-provided traffic states first supervise lane- and movement-level representations, after which human phase selections and rankings supervise the phase scorer. Re-rendering the recorded trajectories under diverse appearances preserves both forms of supervision and encourages robustness to visual changes. Closed-loop experiments demonstrate zero-shot generalization across traffic demands, signal plans, and intersections: BEVLight reduces average waiting time by 7--9% relative to perception-to-control visual baselines and matches or outperforms structured-state RL controllers that receive ground-truth traffic states, achieving the lowest waiting time in 12 of 16 scenarios. An offline study further shows that BEVLight transfers to real UAV observations without target-domain adaptation.
Maonan Wang, Yuxin Cai, Junming Liu +5
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · Shanghai AI Lab · Nanyang Technological University +1
Traffic signal control (TSC) is essential for improving urban mobility and reducing congestion. Although roadside cameras are widely deployed at signalized intersections and provide rich visual observations of evolving traffic, existing TSC methods typically rely on manually engineered traffic states or separate perception modules, creating a gap between physical observations and control decisions. We present VLALight, the first vision-language-action (VLA) model for end-to-end traffic signal control from multi-view roadside videos. VLALight directly maps visual observations to coordinated signal actions through multi-target spatiotemporal traffic reasoning and topology-aware cooperative perception across intersections. To establish this capability, we develop a two-stage supervised cold-start training strategy for visual traffic understanding and signal decision-making, followed by cooperative agentic reinforcement learning that jointly optimizes local control and network-wide traffic efficiency. Furthermore, VLALight introduces adaptive fast and slow reasoning modes, enabling the policy to allocate deeper reasoning only when additional deliberation provides sufficient control benefits. Through balanced mode-aware rollouts and relative advantage optimization, VLALight learns to trade off decision quality and inference cost. Extensive experiments on seven real-world traffic-flow datasets across three urban networks demonstrate that VLALight consistently outperforms transportation-based, RL-based, and LLM/VLM-based baselines. Ablation studies validate the effectiveness of cooperative perception, network-level optimization, and adaptive reasoning. These results demonstrate the potential of VLA models for real-world physical traffic control. Our project is available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/VLALight.git.
Pan Zhang, Siqi Lai, Kemu Dong +1
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · Dalian University of Technology