The Utility of Physics-Informed Machine Learning in Solar Power Production Forecasting

This work develops a physics-informed multimodal deep learning framework for 10- to 110-minute-ahead probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting. The forecasting model is built on a four-branch architecture that separately encodes plant-level temporal history and inverter-level spatial cloud dynamics through a graph attention encoder with a learned adjacency, known-future solar geometry, and the current meteorological state, fused through gated cross-attention. The geometry branch adds two forward-looking physical signals, spatial cloud heterogeneity and inverter ramp-down activity, each empirically weighted toward the horizon where it is most predictive. The decoder anchors its prediction to a smart persistence baseline, learning a horizon-conditioned correction, and the resulting quantile forecasts are calibrated online through a kernel-weighted adaptive conformal calibration step. The proposed model outperforms all 14 baselines, achieving a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.2950, 0.099 above the next-best model. A branch-composition ablation shows that every branch contributes positively and the model retains substantial skill in challenging overcast and variable sky conditions (FSS 0.198 and 0.255).

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints. We propose PARA-PV, a Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented framework that embeds physical knowledge throughout the forecasting process. The framework first encodes multivariate PV observations into patch-level representations and, through a physics-aware retrieval-augmented learner, retrieves historical patches and analog trajectories that are consistent with the current window in temporal shape, power level, PV operating state, and intra-day period; this yields a physically grounded base forecast. To supplement local memory with broader temporal knowledge, the base forecast is then calibrated against a frozen Chronos time-series foundation-model prior through a lightweight residual adapter, so that general temporal regularities are adapted to PV-specific dynamics without overriding the physically grounded prediction. Because residual conditional distribution shifts persist when weather and diurnal regimes change, a physics-aware distribution shift correction module subsequently adjusts the preliminary forecast using power, weather, timestamp, and day/night conditions, applying gated mean-shift and scale corrections selectively. Finally, a physics-constrained loss function partitions the samples into peak, ramping, night-time, and regular regimes and adaptively reweights their error contributions, preventing the dominant regular regime from suppressing learning of operationally critical states. Our code is available at https://github.com/weican1103/PARA-PV.

Advection-diffusion plays an essential role in transport phenomena such as atmospheric and cloud dynamics. Improved forecasting of cloud motion, in turn, enhances solar power production forecasts and facilitates the integration of additional photovoltaic (PV) sources into the power grid. However, both classical numerical models and emerging deep learning approaches face challenges when applied to spatially irregular sensor networks such as those formed by weather stations. In this work, we adopt a graph signal processing perspective and model advection-diffusion particles as signals on a graph to capture the dynamics of these processes. We introduce a Physics-Informed Graph Neural Network (PING) for forecasting future advection-diffusion particle concentrations on irregular grids. The model incorporates a discretized advection-diffusion equation as a soft constraint in the loss function to guide learning toward physically consistent solutions. This model is on par with state of the art models on synthetic and real transport phenomena datasets, including sea surface temperature and cloud index datasets. Furthermore, the PING model is successfully coupled with models for forecasting PV power production. This hybrid approach leverages data fusion from ground-based sensors at PV stations and satellite images with cloud concentration to improve the accuracy of intra-day PV power production.