Open-World Object Motion Anticipation via Meta-Learned Semantic Adaptation
Authors: Mason Peterson, Gage MacLin, Camilla Tabasso, Jonathan P. How, Joshua Migdal, Tye Brady, Taskin Padir
Organizations: Amazon Fulfillment Technologies & Robotics, Westborough MA, USA. · Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA. · University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52240.
Anticipating the motion of nearby objects is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation. Without a proper understanding of what may move, a robot may plan overly conservative, inefficient trajectories to guarantee safety, or it may be overly risky, resulting in unacceptable collisions. While tracking and predicting the motion of known objects has seen significant progress, little research addresses how a robot should adapt online to novel objects, including anticipating how one object may move another (e.g., a person operating a forklift to move a pallet). To enable this capability, we propose a meta-learned graph neural network that leverages a semantic, geometric, and relational history of objects to accurately predict, from a few online observations, when objects will begin to move in new environments. We demonstrate that our method, which is trained only in simulation, accurately anticipates the motion of objects unseen at training time, transfers to hardware without any fine-tuning, and outperforms a vision-language model and a class-frequency baseline in both simulation and hardware experiments. Our method's accurate prediction enables collision-free traversals in a closed-loop navigation simulation, while remaining within four seconds of the fastest, collision-prone planner.
Figures & tables
Fig. 1 : Our method leverages spatial and semantic information to learn from a few observations how objects interact and move in new environments. Our model is trained in simulation to adapt to novel object classes. It transfers to hardware, correctly recognizing robots as objects that frequently move and anticipating the container being picked up by a person. Box color encodes probability of motion (see color bar); boxes are not drawn around objects with motion probability <0.1 .
Fig. 2 : Model architecture. Per-object positions, velocities, and DINO embeddings [ 4 ] are used to construct node and edge features of a scene graph. Node features are concatenated with a recurrent hidden state from a GRU, and a persistent scene node connects to every object. Two GATv2 layers [ 29 ] , a per-node GRU, and an MLP produce a probability of motion onset for each object.
Fig. 3 : Semantic embedding augmentation illustration. To enable use of arbitrary DINO [ 4 ] feature inputs at test time, we perform random data augmentation in DINO feature embedding space, including adding jitter, splitting, merging, spreading, and scrambling, and finally reproject to the unit hypersphere.
Fig. 4 : Snapshots at 1.5 second intervals demonstrating the performance of the proposed method against two baselines on part of the robot-view hardware dataset. Colored boxes representing probabilities are drawn around an object if the probability of motion is >0.1 . The proposed method accurately anticipates the motion of the chair and picked-up Astro robot moved by the two people in these figures.
Fig. 5 : Reliability diagrams showing calibration results of each evaluated method on the robot-view hardware dataset. In each plot, 10 bins are shown, made up of predictions within a given probability interval. An ideal reliability diagram would show bars reaching the diagonal line, demonstrating accurate calibration ( i.e. , the observed onset frequency equals the assigned probability). The proposed method demonstrates well-calibrated performance.
Fig. 6 : Cumulative BSS over time pooled over the seven overview hardware runs, with curves below the axis floor drawn as dotted lines at the bottom. The proposed method adapts quickly and maintains the highest skill score from early on.
Fig. 7 : Contribution of individual augmentation components on the hardware dataset. Before adding embedding randomized merging, BSS are strongly negative, suggesting that until merging happens, the method struggles with the strongly out-of-distribution hardware input. Spread and scramble additions each positively improve performance afterward.
Metric
All Static
All Dynamic
Proposed
Failure to Reach Goal ↓
20%
35%
5%
Collision Failure ↓
15%
5%
0%
Avg. Min. Clearance (m) ↑
0.260
0.436
0.377
Avg. Completion Time (s) ↓
64.8
77.0
68.5
TABLE IV : Planning-in-the-loop results over 20 simulated scenes.
Manipulating previously unseen objects remains challenging, as their dynamics depend on latent physical properties, such as friction and mass distribution, that cannot be inferred from perception alone. Prior experience across objects can provide an initial estimate of unseen object dynamics, but this estimate remains uncertain and can degrade further during sim-to-real transfer. Adapting the dynamics through interaction can progressively refine the estimation, however, updating the model may invalidate the planned trajectory. Successful and efficient manipulation therefore requires both rapid dynamics adaptation and a planning strategy that can incorporate this evolution. In this work, we introduce MetaPusher, a meta-learning and adaptive planning framework for nonprehensile manipulation of unseen objects without prior object-specific interactions. A meta-learned dynamics model rapidly adapts from interactions during task execution, while an adaptive kinodynamic planner updates long-horizon plans by reusing and refining its existing search tree. This coupling enables manipulation and adaptation without a separate data collection phase. We evaluate MetaPusher on unseen objects in simulation and in sim-to-real scenarios, comparing against fine-tuning and active learning methods, MPPI-based control, and a reinforcement learning policy. It achieves lower prediction error and improves task success rate by up to 20%.
We present a general declarative framework for anticipatory reasoning about interactive motion in complex dynamic environments. Our focus is on (explainable) anticipatory space-time mental model formation at a semantic level to heuristically guide low-level motion computation. Our method is hybrid, modular and elaboration tolerant integrating: 1) An ASP model characterising the dynamics of interactive motion trajectories; 2) Semantically-guided prediction for deriving `branching trajectory futures'; and 3) An energy-based {optimisation} model to evaluate, rank and filter anticipations. We evaluate with the Argoverse 2 benchmark, where each anticipated trajectory carries an explicit, inspectable event-level hypothesis, unlike end-to-end stochastic prediction.
Julius Monsen, Jakob Suchan, Mehul Bhatt
Örebro University, Sweden · CoDesign Lab EU · Constructor University Bremen, Germany
Moving obstacles can block a previously clear route while a quadruped robot executes a motion command. We investigate whether predicting changing clearance improves navigation when motion selection accounts for the robot footprint and the time needed to react and brake. We present FutureRay, which predicts ranges across viewing directions and future times, together with encounter risk, from depth-derived range history and observable robot motion. Training emphasizes near-term clearance and penalizes errors that overstate available space. A local planner queries the same forecast for candidate headings and combines it with current observations to check clearance around the robot footprint. Model-based reaction--braking limits guide speed selection, and the resulting velocity commands are passed to a fixed locomotion policy. In paired evaluations on 60 static and dynamic simulation scenes, FutureRay achieves 93.3% completion, compared with 75.0% for current-range persistence and 80.0% for Cartesian Kalman rollout, with perception, planning, and locomotion held fixed. FutureRay also records fewer collisions than both baselines. Qualitative trials on a physical quadruped show avoidance initiated while an obstacle is approaching the route, followed by renewed goal progress. These results show that joint range and encounter-risk prediction can improve obstacle avoidance without retraining the locomotion policy.
Tianhao Zang, Shanze Wang, Ziqian Wang +4
College of Information Science and Technology, Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo, P. R. China. · University of Maryland, USA. · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong. +2