Surrogate Uncertainty for Black-box Visual Grounding

Trustworthy robot behavior requires not only high levels of task success but also that the robot can reliably quantify how likely it is to succeed. To this end, we present a first-of-its-kind study of confidence calibration in vision-language-action (VLA) foundation models, which map visual observations and natural language instructions to low-level robot motor commands. We establish a confidence estimation baseline for VLAs, examine how task success relates to calibration error and how calibration evolves over time, and introduce two lightweight techniques to remedy the miscalibration we observe: prompt ensembles and action-wise Platt scaling. Our aim in this study is to begin to develop the tools and conceptual understanding necessary to render VLAs trustworthy via reliable uncertainty quantification.

Understanding natural human instructions is crucial for deploying robots in human-centric environments. We study multimodal instruction grounding, where language and gesture provide complementary but uncertain cues. We present MIGU, a modular framework that combines semantic and geometric evidence into a unified grounding belief and connects it to manipulation planning. MIGU constructs a 3D geometric likelihood by propagating viewing-direction and depth uncertainty through eye-finger geometry while accounting for hand-direction estimation error. A vision-language model (VLM) provides semantic priors over candidate objects and regions, which are combined with the geometric likelihood through Bayes-inspired fusion. The resulting belief supports behavior planning to either proceed directly to downstream planning or request clarification. Grounded targets then define goals for mobile manipulation and tabletop task-and-motion planning. On a real-world benchmark, MIGU outperforms all evaluated baselines, while ablations support the benefit of explicit multimodal uncertainty modeling. Project website: multimodal-instruction.github.io

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown strong capabilities in robotic manipulation, yet existing benchmarks typically assume that task-relevant information is explicitly specified in the instruction. In practice, however, humans frequently refer to objects, quantities, and relations implicitly, requiring robots to recover the intended target from linguistic and perceptual context. We study this capability as Implicit Referential Grounding (IRG) and introduce RoboIRG-Bench, a manipulation benchmark designed to systematically evaluate it. Built upon RoboMME, RoboIRG-Bench contains 40 variants derived from 11 tasks and covers four challenges, including direct, reasoning-mediated, spatial, and contextual referential grounding. As IRG often requires retaining and retrieving previously established context, we evaluate representative VLAs spanning different memory mechanisms. Our evaluation reveals a noticeable referential robustness gap. Models that perform well under explicit instructions can degrade sharply when the same task-relevant information must be recovered from context. Reasoning-mediated and spatial references are particularly challenging, while models using external VLMs show greater robustness but still exhibit significant failures. Moreover, replacing the external VLM with a stronger model does not eliminate these gaps. We further validate these findings on a Franka Research 3 robot arm, where the gap persists under real-world manipulation and manifests as both incorrect referent grounding and downstream execution failures. These results establish IRG as a distinct and underexplored capability for reliable robotic instruction following and highlight the need for VLAs that can robustly integrate language, perception, reasoning, and action.