SATFRONT: Detecting Atmospheric Fronts with Satellite Data using Machine Learning

Weather fronts are transition regions between air masses with contrasting thermodynamic properties and are associated with mid-latitude precipitation and severe weather. We investigate machine learning (ML) methods for detecting weather fronts and quantify the contribution of reanalysis data to performance. We compare two configurations of the same ML model for pixel-wise frontal classification over the North Atlantic and Europe: (1) using only geostationary infrared satellite observations, and (2) additionally using 28 ERA5 reanalysis fields. The satellite-only model achieves a neighbourhood critical success index at a 150 km tolerance (CSI@150) of $0.402$, which lies within the range of agreement between analyses from different meteorological services. The satellite$+$ERA5 model achieves $0.575$, an improvement of $0.173$. Our analysis shows that low-level winds are the least predictable from the satellite representation ($R^2 = 0.23$, compared with $0.88$ for temperature), while removing winds or moisture causes the largest decreases in detection performance.

Space weather disturbances driven by the solar wind can degrade satellite navigation, disrupt radio communications, and threaten power infrastructure, making accurate forecasting of the high-latitude ionosphere's response a critical operational need. Existing approaches, empirical climatological models and physics-based magnetohydrodynamic simulations, either smooth out the ionosphere's time-dependent, non-linear response or are too computationally expensive for real-time use, while prior machine learning efforts have mostly targeted scalar indices rather than the full spatial structure of ionospheric convection. Here we train and compare three deep learning architectures, a probabilistic diffusion model conditioned on multi-variate solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements at the L1 Lagrange point, an unconditioned diffusion ablation, and a deterministic U-Net baseline, to forecast Southern Hemisphere high-latitude electric potential maps derived from SuperDARN radar observations. Using five years (2020--2025) of SuperDARN data synchronised with DSCOVR L1 measurements, we evaluate the models under a single-pass regime, an extended autoregressive rollout of up to 350 frames, and an out-of-distribution case study on the intense March 2015 St.\ Patrick's Day storm, unseen during training. We find that the relative advantage of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches is not fixed: the deterministic model is competitive over short horizons and calm conditions, while the diffusion model's advantage grows and eventually dominates as the forecast horizon lengthens and the event becomes more dynamic, evidence that probabilistic, sample-based generative models are the more promising direction for operational, long-horizon space weather forecasting.

The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) offers new opportunities for tropospheric temperature and humidity profiling, at higher spatio-temporal resolutions and expanded spectral coverage relative to its predecessor. Vertically resolved retrievals from broadband imagers are inherently challenging, and operational retrieval algorithms typically rely on numerical weather prediction (NWP) background fields to compensate for limited infrared spectral resolution, reducing the retrievals' independence. We develop a spatially aware deep learning framework to retrieve all-sky tropospheric temperature and humidity profiles from FCI, without forecast profiles as input. A Residual U-Net that exploits spatial context across all 16 FCI channels was trained on 14 months of collocated FCI observations and CERRA reanalysis targets over Europe. Validated against independent radiosondes, retrieved temperatures show biases below 0.4 K and standard deviations of 1.5-1.9 K. Retrieved relative humidity standard deviations range from 12-20 %, compared to 9-19 % for CERRA. Performance degrades modestly under clouds, with standard deviation increases below 0.4 K and 3 % RH beneath cloud tops despite limited direct radiative information. Ablation experiments show that spatial context improves retrievals, with the largest gains below cloud tops. Feature sensitivity analysis indicates broad consistency with FCI bands' established radiative transfer characteristics. Visible and near-infrared channels contribute despite not being commonly used in physics-based profile inversions. These results demonstrate that spatially aware deep learning models can extract statistically reliable tropospheric profiles from geostationary imager observations, independent of NWP forecast fields, enabling more rapid autonomous monitoring of the atmosphere.