Organizational Learning in Materials Discovery Campaigns: Which Databases, Calculations, and Agent Teams Pay Off
Organizations: Department of Materials Science and Engineering, The University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
Abstract
More databases can make a materials campaign worse. Through an organizational lens, we trace each source's contribution. One band-gap campaign ranks seven anion families from archived measured gaps, one vote per source. In the first half of its budget, all seven pooled rank worse (rank agreement 0.737; 1 = measured order) than the best pool of three (0.851). As a stability check, choosing the pool on half the runs and testing on the rest kept the gap. Splitting Materials Project afterwards points to its transition-metal oxides and fluorides. Two databases from one pipeline add nothing over one, but pooling gives their shared ordering two votes. New calculations repay their cost early only when two or three campaigns reuse them. Flat language-model agent teams trailed a random-pick baseline (mean 0.876, sd 0.096, 20 searches). An adaptive Al-Mg-Si team, mostly interatomic potentials, was scored on unseen HSE06 calculations. In its first quarter of compute it found 49% of the ten lowest-formation-energy compounds, against at most 40% for fixed teams and 73% for MACE-MP-0 alone. Merging members whose orderings agreed carried most of its gain. This suggests pooling a few sources that fit the measurements, counting each pipeline once and charging for computation.
Figures & tables
| Construct | Quantity in the campaigns | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Knowledge integration; negative transfer | best value by pool size; full pool against the best pool; Shapley value of each database and of the MP GGA+U (TM-O/F) | 2.2; S2, S3 |
| Redundancy; structural equivalence | increment of the second SNUMAT copy; leave-one-out against Shapley; one vote per ordering | 2.3; S3 |
| Exploration and its cost | contribution of the computed PBE ordering under HSE06-only and charged cost; cost-share sweep | 2.4; S11 |
| Communication structure (meetings) | restricted-game values under declared and recorded meetings (sum and best-group rules) | 2.5; S4 |
| Coordination; process loss | coordinator effect paired by seed; share of distinct trays; random-tray search baseline with its spread | 2.5; S5 |
| Organizational learning (trust learned from the record) | early share of the record-ranked team against fixed tiers and a flat team; ablations; held-out receivers | 2.6; S6 |
| Database | Seven sources | Eight donors | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| JARVIS TB-mBJ | |||
| JARVIS OptB88vdW | |||
| MP GGA (unsplit) | |||
| MP GGA (no +U) | |||
| MP GGA+U (TM-O/F) | |||
| MP GGA (ICSD) |
| Size | Best | Pool |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6949 | (no donors) |
| 1 | 0.8019 | SNUMAT GGA |
| 2 | 0.8686 | MP GGA (no +U), SNUMAT GGA |
| 3 | 0.8533 | MP GGA (no +U), SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 |
| 4 | 0.8789 | JARVIS TB-mBJ, MP GGA (no +U), SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 |
| 5 | 0.8156 | JARVIS TB-mBJ, MP GGA (no +U), MP SCAN, SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 |
| Order | Coalitions | Sum | Positive / negative | Sum of | 95% interval of sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 6 / 2 | 0.4895 | ||
| 2 | 28 | 17 / 11 | 0.7360 | ||
| 3 | 56 | 11 / 44 | 2.6305 | ||
| 4 | 70 | 65 / 5 | 6.3158 | ||
| 5 | 56 | 3 / 53 | 7.8396 | ||
| 6 | 28 | 28 / 0 | 5.1714 |
| Pair | 95% interval | |
|---|---|---|
| SNUMAT GGA + SNUMAT HSE06 | ||
| JARVIS TB-mBJ + MP GGA (no +U) | ||
| MP GGA (no +U) + MP SCAN | ||
| JARVIS OptB88vdW + MP GGA (no +U) | ||
| MP GGA (no +U) + SNUMAT GGA | ||
| MP GGA (no +U) + SNUMAT HSE06 |
| Database | Shapley | Banzhaf | LOO | B | B | B | B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JARVIS TB-mBJ | |||||||
| JARVIS OptB88vdW | |||||||
| MP GGA (no +U) | |||||||
| MP GGA (ICSD) | |||||||
| MP GGA+U (TM-O/F) | |||||||
| MP SCAN |
| Size | Best pool of this size | Removal path: source dropped | after | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | all eight | – | ||
| 7 | JARVIS TB-mBJ, JARVIS OptB88vdW, MP GGA (no +U), MP GGA (ICSD), MP SCAN, SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 | MP GGA+U (TM-O/F) | ||
| 6 | MP GGA (no +U), MP GGA (ICSD), MP GGA+U (TM-O/F), MP SCAN, SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 | MP GGA (ICSD) | ||
| 5 | JARVIS TB-mBJ, MP GGA (no +U), MP SCAN, SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 | JARVIS OptB88vdW | ||
| 4 | JARVIS TB-mBJ, MP GGA (no +U), SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 | MP SCAN | ||
| 3 | MP GGA (no +U), SNUMAT GGA, SNUMAT HSE06 | JARVIS TB-mBJ |
| Database | Per source | Per distinct ordering |
|---|---|---|
| JARVIS TB-mBJ | ||
| JARVIS OptB88vdW | ||
| MP GGA (no +U) | ||
| MP GGA (ICSD) | ||
| MP GGA+U (TM-O/F) | ||
| MP SCAN |
| Measure | Mean pairwise | 95% interval | Minimum | To averaged Shapley | Shapley-last named | Sign flips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shapley | 0.850 | 0.542 | 0.923 | 10 | 0 | |
| Banzhaf | 0.890 | 0.542 | 0.947 | 10 | 4 | |
| Leave-one-out | 0.280 | 0.547 | 2 | 10 | ||
| Beta | 0.694 | – | 0.036 | 0.831 | 9 | 6 |
| Beta | 0.619 | – | 0.788 | 8 | 7 | |
| Beta | 0.718 | – | 0.229 | 0.843 | 6 | 7 |
| Tolerance | Permutations | Median max error | 90th pct | Sign reversals | Lookups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 21 | 0.0099 | 0.0139 | 16/50 | 147 |
| 0.00 | 1000 | 0.0014 | 0.0025 | 0/50 | 7000 |
| 0.01 | 21 | 0.0126 | 0.0183 | 23/50 | 135 |
| 0.01 | 1000 | 0.0039 | 0.0052 | 0/50 | 6425 |
| 0.05 | 21 | 0.0120 | 0.0190 | 17/50 | 131 |
| 0.05 | 1000 | 0.0048 | 0.0066 | 0/50 | 6283 |
| Game | Donor | Shapley | Banzhaf | Beta(16,1) | Beta(1,16) | LOO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBE, fixed | MACE-MP-0 relaxation | |||||
| MP archive | ||||||
| MEAM MD | ||||||
| NEP89 MD | ||||||
| PBE, learned | MP archive | |||||
| MACE-MP-0 relaxation |
| Run-pair Spearman | Top (runs) | Other potentials | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiver, trust | Shapley | Banzhaf | Beta(16,1) | LOO | Shapley | LOO | Shapley | LOO | runs |
| MEAM 453 K, learned | 0.846 | 0.834 | 0.875 | 0.302 | 20 | 11 | 20 | ||
| MEAM 453 K, fixed | 0.905 | 0.880 | 0.970 | 0.701 | 20 | 20 | 20 | ||
| MEAM 803 K, learned | 0.852 | 0.885 | 0.620 | 0.637 | 20 | 19 | 20 | ||
| MEAM 803 K, fixed | 0.971 | 0.953 | 0.989 | 0.607 | 20 | 19 | 20 | ||
| NEP89 453 K, learned | 0.932 | 0.945 | 0.855 | 0.419 | 20 | 18 | 18 | ||
| Hub | Unrestricted | Degree-weighted | Myerson, sum | Graph value, best-group rule | Rank (sum, best) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JARVIS TB-mBJ | 7, 7 | ||||
| JARVIS OptB88vdW | 7, 7 | ||||
| MP GGA | 7, 7 | ||||
| MP GGA (ICSD) | 7, 7 | ||||
| MP SCAN | 7, 7 | ||||
| SNUMAT GGA | 2, 2 |
| Structure A | Structure B | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Database | None | Hyper sum | Hyper best | Clique sum | Clique best | Hyper sum | Hyper best | Clique sum | Clique best |
| SNUMAT GGA | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| SNUMAT HSE06 | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| MP SCAN | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (3) | (4) | (3) | (3) |
| JARVIS OptB88vdW | (4) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| JARVIS TB-mBJ | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (3) | (5) | (5) |
| Team | Campaigns | Team | Distinct trays | Coordinator effect | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flat | coordinated | flat | coordinated | |||
| Qwen3-4B, 5 agents | 20 + 20 | 0.756 | 0.852 | 9.6% | 11.3% | |
| Nemotron 30B-A3B, 5 agents | 10 + 10 | 0.670 | 0.790 | 5.3% | 17.0% | |
| Qwen3-4B, 10 agents | 8 + 8 | 0.812 | 0.857 | 5.6% | 8.4% | |
| Set | Team | MP GGA | MP SCAN | OptB88vdW | TB-mBJ | SNUMAT HSE06 | Coord. sum | Coord. best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 Qwen 5 | flat | 0.099 | 0.201 | 0.219 | 0.149 | 0.332 | ||
| S1 Qwen 5 | coordinated | 0.129 | 0.255 | 0.138 | 0.213 | 0.265 | ||
| S2 Nemotron 5 | flat | 0.104 | 0.193 | 0.224 | 0.077 | 0.403 | ||
| S2 Nemotron 5 | coordinated | 0.185 | 0.167 | 0.245 | 0.199 | 0.203 | ||
| S3 Qwen 10 | flat | 0.077 | 0.216 | 0.160 | 0.212 | 0.335 | ||
| S3 Qwen 10 | coordinated | 0.167 | 0.207 | 0.139 | 0.197 | 0.290 |
| Implemented protocol | Learned protocol | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiver | PBE | HSE06 | SCAN | PBE | HSE06 | SCAN |
| Leader share, MACE-MP-0 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| Leader share, MP archive | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Leader changes per campaign | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.85 | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Tier persistence between batches | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Cells per batch | 1.18 | 1.14 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Three tiers | Changing shape | Changing shape, learned | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of tiers, range over all batches | 3 | 1–6 | 1–7 |
| Mean number of tiers after the first batch | 3.00 | 2.05–2.08 | 4.37–4.40 |
| Mean number of tiers at the end | 3.00 | 4.04–4.22 | 5.00–5.24 |
| Share of campaigns flat after the first batch | 0 | 0.12–0.13 | 0 |
| Changes in the number of tiers per campaign | 0 | 12.8–13.4 | 12.8–13.7 |
| Members in the top tier after the first batch | 1 | 3.14–3.24 | 1.51–1.53 |
| PBE | HSE06 | SCAN | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swarms | eq. | size | rec. | isol. | eq. | size | rec. | isol. | eq. | size | rec. | isol. |
| One swarm of 7 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| 4 + 3 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| 2 + 5, strong pair | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| 2 + 5, weak pair | 0.60 | 0.66 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| 1 + 6, MACE-MP-0 alone | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| Value | Groups at a quarter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | Rule set | PBE | HSE06 | SCAN | PBE | HSE06 | SCAN |
| Seven single members | fixed | 0.592 | 0.424 | 0.459 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| combine only | 0.621 | 0.451 | 0.477 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | |
| both, default | 0.613 | 0.440 | 0.478 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | |
| both, learned | 0.624 | 0.435 | 0.462 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | |
| 2 + 2 + 3 | fixed | 0.661 | 0.534 | 0.534 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Value | Shared at a quarter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | Member rule | PBE | HSE06 | SCAN | PBE | HSE06 | SCAN |
| Seven single members | none | 0.592 | 0.424 | 0.459 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| move, default | 0.640 | 0.494 | 0.485 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| share, default | 0.596 | 0.431 | 0.462 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
| both, default | 0.642 | 0.494 | 0.487 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | |
| move, learned | 0.640 | 0.496 | 0.487 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Body | Equal | Compute | 1/compute | Solo gain | Seniority | Proportional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBE receiver ( , ) | ||||||
| MACE-MP-0 relaxation | ||||||
| NEP89 MD | ||||||
| NEP89 relaxation | ||||||
| MEAM MD | ||||||
| MP archive | ||||||
| Source | Formation energy (eV/atom) | Volume (Å 3 /atom) |
|---|---|---|
| NEP89, relaxed at 0 K | 21.00 | |
| MEAM, published (Table IX of Jelinek et al. [62] ) | 23.05 | |
| MACE-MP-0, relaxed at 0 K | 21.36 | |
| Quantum ESPRESSO PBE relaxation (main text, Methods) | 21.43 | |
| Materials Project mp-1367 (corrected entry) | – | |
| CALPHAD assessment [ 112 ] , as tabulated by Jelinek et al. [62] | (enthalpy) | – |
| Game | Trust | whole budget | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Band gap | fixed | , | , | , | , |
| Band gap | learned | , | , | , | , |
| Al–Mg–Si | fixed | , | , | , | never |
| Al–Mg–Si | learned | , | , | , | , |
| Member | Al, Mg, Si | residual sd | raw | without linear part | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEP89 MD | 188 | , , | ||||
| NEP89 relaxation | 179 | , , | ||||
| MEAM MD | 185 | , , | ||||
| MEAM relaxation | 179 | , , |
| System | Donor | HSE06 only | HSE06 + PBE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al–Mg–Si | PBE | / | / |
| MACE-MP-0, 0 K | / | / | |
| MP archive | / | / | |
| MEAM MD | / | / | |
| NEP89 MD | / | / | |
| ; | ; / | ; / |