A robot action can satisfy shape and range constraints yet carry the wrong semantics: axes may be permuted, signs inverted, rotations rescaled, or gripper polarity reversed. We study learned state-action-effect relations as offline contracts for detecting these mismatches and ranking their likely fields. Clean held-out transitions calibrate alarms; a fixed inverse vocabulary supports closed-set localization. On ten LIBERO Spatial tasks comprising 432 source episodes, a capacity-controlled comparison at 2.5% empirical clean false-positive rate gives 46.1% recall for a ridge forward residual, 61.0% for a four-component joint Gaussian mixture, and 65.7% for the exact conditional of that same mixture. The joint score retains a 14.9 percentage-point advantage over ridge, while conditioning improves recall by a further 4.7 points. Joint scoring instead has higher localization: 95.8% versus 94.6%. These matched-rate comparisons are retrospective diagnostics, not deployment calibration guarantees. Earlier Object/Goal results broaden tasks within the LIBERO convention; DROID, all three HYDRA tasks, short temporal faults, small offsets, exact repair, and simulated mitigation fail their respective gates, while xArm contributes one task only. The evidence supports a bounded offline diagnostic and a detection-localization tradeoff, rather than joint-density superiority or cross-robot safety.
Figures & tables
Score
Matched recall (%)
Calibration FPR (%)
Localization (%)
Ridge forward
46.08 [41.58, 50.17]
2.63
92.70
Joint GMM
60.96 [56.90, 64.28]
3.22
95.81
Conditional GMM
65.66 [62.61, 68.40]
2.85
94.62
Table 1: Post-decision Spatial comparison over 432 source episodes. Recall is at 2.5% matched empirical clean FPR; brackets are conditional paired task/episode bootstrap 95% intervals. Achieved FPR uses a separate, calibration-only 2.5% nominal threshold and equal-episode weighting. Matched FPR uses clean rows within each split. Localization includes all valid fault rows, not just alarms.
Figure 1: Retrospective clean-reference FPR comparison on the same Spatial episodes. All methods use the same train/calibration/test partitions. Bands are pointwise 95% task/episode bootstrap intervals conditional on fitted scores and reference thresholds. They are not simultaneous bands or deployment-FPR guarantees.
Scope
Gate
Result
Supported interpretation
Small X-offset
0/10
GMM recall 0.0340
Explanation may rank well below alarm threshold
Temporal faults
0/10
median gain 0.0421
Short latency/hold/chunk order unsupported
DROID-100
fail
recalls 0.0193–0.0865
Structural compatibility is not detector transfer
xArm Lift
1 task
GMM recall 0.6016
One-task offline sanity only
HYDRA
0/3
recalls 0.1063–0.1213
Multi-task external convention fails
Exact repair
0/10
median within-0.01 0.4930
Localization is not reliable action repair
Table 2: Material boundaries retained in the main paper. “Pass” always refers to the frozen gate for that row; proxy and simulator rows are not physical trials.
Level
Statistical unit
May support
Fresh locked replay
task summaries over unseen split seeds
Detector ordering and clean-FPR compliance on recorded tasks
Clustered confirmation
task, then immutable source episode
Finite-source Spatial effect and paired uncertainty
Selection-frozen reuse
previously used task–episodes
Mechanism, heterogeneity, and failure description only
Post-hoc severity
task summaries at fixed severities
Explanatory sensitivity, not rescue of a failed family
External convention
source-defined episodes and tasks
Transfer only when the independently frozen gate passes
Simulator proxy
simulator episodes under matched budgets
Only the specified mitigation comparison, never physical safety
Table 1: Evidence hierarchy. “May support” is deliberately narrower than what the underlying metric could be used to suggest.
Suite
Tasks
Transitions
Task–episodes
Episodes/task
LIBERO Spatial
10
52,538
432
35–47
LIBERO Object
10
56,262
383
31–41
LIBERO Goal
10
51,614
428
33–50
Total
30
160,414
1,243
31–50
Table 2: Immutable source units. A task–episode is the inferential cluster; a transition is not treated as an independent trial.
Status
Family
Exact transformation
Supported
Motion scale
a1:6←0.5a1:6
Supported
XY permutation
(ax,ay)←(ay,ax)
Supported
X sign
ax←−ax
Supported
Rotation units
a4:6←a4:6/57.2957795
Supported
Gripper polarity
a7←1−a7
Stress test
Fixed X offset
ax←ax+0.05
Table 3: Frozen mutation vocabulary. Motion transformations act on the first six coordinates unless a smaller coordinate set is named.
Task
ΔR
GMM loc.
ΔLf
ΔLj
0
0.1605
0.9632
0.0281
0.0151
1
0.2431
0.9656
0.0232
0.0172
2
0.1555
0.9577
0.0310
0.0181
3
0.2653
0.9466
0.0414
0.0287
4
0.0826
0.9417
0.0305
0.0197
5
0.1035
0.9650
0.0315
0.0129
Table 4: Fresh Spatial task results for the four-component GMM. ΔR is GMM-minus-forward recall; ΔLf and ΔLj are localization gains over forward and joint Gaussian.
Effect
Estimate
Paired 95% CI
FWER lower
Holm p
GMM − forward recall
0.16753
[0.13642, 0.20297]
0.13401
0.00293
GMM − forward loc.
0.03089
[0.02679, 0.03541]
0.02645
0.00293
GMM − joint loc.
0.01837
[0.01522, 0.02198]
0.01497
0.00293
Table 5: Fresh 432-episode Spatial effects. The sign-flip family has ten paired task summaries, so its smallest attainable unadjusted one-sided value is 1/1024.
Table 8: External-convention outcomes. All use low-dimensional source-semantic actions; video and simulator assets are excluded.
ID
Role
Wall (s)
Max RSS (bytes)
042b
fresh GMM recall
465.445
220,004,352
043
fresh localization
225.377
250,036,224
044
Object/Goal GMM
43.810
960,430,080
051
static metadata baseline
51.542
241,270,784
053a
split coverage
0.899
42,762,240
054a
clustered effects
46.422
588,038,144
Table 9: Exact CPU resource evidence for the ten retained main-evidence paths.
Claim
Command/script locator
Result locator
GMM recall
run-gmm-confirmation-042b.sh
gmm-joint-confirmation-042b.json
GMM localization
run-gmm-localization-043.sh
gmm-localization-confirmation-043.json
Suite repeat
run-cross-suite-gmm-044.sh
gmm-cross-suite-confirmation-044.json
Static comparator
run-metadata-displacement-baseline-051.sh
metadata-displacement-baseline-051.json
Split coverage
run-statistical-unit-audit-053a.sh
statistical-unit-audit-053a.json
Clustered effects
run-clustered-effect-intervals-054a.sh
clustered-effect-intervals-054a.json
Table 10: Key evidence locators. Paths are relative to the private project root.
FPR (%)
Ridge forward
Joint GMM
Conditional GMM
1.00
34.13
52.27
56.49
2.50
46.08
60.96
65.66
5.00
58.41
68.62
72.83
Table 11: Matched empirical clean FPR: mutation recall in percent. All rows use the same finite source episodes, so different FPRs are correlated descriptive views.
Score
Nominal 1%
Nominal 2.5%
Nominal 5%
Ridge forward
1.16 / 31.34
2.63 / 44.13
5.05 / 57.26
Joint GMM
1.71 / 51.09
3.22 / 60.86
5.62 / 68.50
Conditional GMM
1.34 / 54.76
2.85 / 65.04
5.32 / 72.64
Table 12: Calibration-only operating points in percent. Each cell gives achieved clean FPR / mutation recall; calibration targets are nominal, not achieved rates.
Comparison
Effect
95% interval
97.5% interval
Joint − ridge
14.88
[12.07, 17.98]
[11.72, 18.43]
Joint − conditional
-4.70
[-6.32, -3.50]
[-6.58, -3.39]
Table 13: Primary matched-FPR paired effects, in percentage points. The wider intervals control the two declared comparisons by Bonferroni under the stated conditional bootstrap interpretation.
Spatial task
Episodes
Ridge
Joint
Conditional
0
46
47.98
62.57
67.76
1
42
45.12
66.84
69.45
2
39
45.59
61.01
65.07
3
35
30.80
54.84
57.54
4
45
39.22
46.67
57.66
5
43
58.18
67.80
72.93
Table 14: Task-level recall at matched 2.5% empirical clean FPR, in percent. Task means equal-weight their source episodes and five represented families.
Evaluation
Pass
Gain vs. action/range
Loc.
Max FPR
Spatial, 2,000 seeds/task
10/10
0.3157
0.8567
0.0279
Object + Goal, 500/suite
2/2
0.2989
0.8474
0.0286
Five-family Spatial, 4,000/task
10/10
0.3793
0.9134
0.0279
Five-family Object + Goal, 4,000/suite
2/2
0.3579
0.8993
0.0284
Forward Spatial, fresh 2,000/task
10/10
0.3739
0.9285
0.0287
Forward Object + Goal, fresh 2,000/suite
2/2
0.3474
0.9092
0.0279
Table 15: Locked replay evidence. Gains are absolute recall differences. “Seeds” are repeated episode-split seeds over fixed data, not independent trajectories.
Evidence
Comparison
Effect
95% interval
Spatial splits
GMM − forward recall
0.15663
task median
Spatial splits
GMM − forward loc.
0.02932
[0.02472, 0.03553]
432 episodes
GMM − forward recall
0.16753
[0.13642, 0.20297]
432 episodes
GMM − forward loc.
0.03089
[0.02679, 0.03541]
432 episodes
GMM − joint loc.
0.01837
[0.01522, 0.02198]
Metadata baseline
metadata − GMM recall
-0.31196
[-0.33328, -0.24729]
Table 16: Paired historical evidence for the four-component GMM. Achieved FPR is not matched. The clustered rows first average repeated split appearances within each source episode.
School of Future Technology, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China · National University of Singapore, Singapore · Nanyang Technological University, Singapore