Hybrid Machine Learning for Imbalanced Landing-Phase Safety Event Prediction from Flight Data

Improving flight safety with flight data requires not only accurate detection of risk events, but more importantly, clear interpretation of their underlying causes at the level of pilot control behavior. Existing explainable AI techniques, such as feature importance maps, often require considerable domain knowledge to translate them into operationally meaningful explanations. Large Language Models (LLMs), which excel at language reasoning, bring a promising solution to this issue. However, applying LLMs in this domain presents key challenges such as modal inconsistency, limited classification ability, scarcity of task-specific data for fine-tuning, and lack of domain knowledge. To overcome these challenges, we propose FlightLLM, a prior-guided semantic LLM-based approach for interpretable flight safety analysis. Specifically, we first perform feature engineering to address modal inconsistency, combining statistical descriptors with physically meaningful flight indicators. This representation is further processed by a Semantic Discretization module, which converts abstract numerical patterns into qualitative descriptions that are more compatible with language reasoning. In addition, since LLMs are not inherently strong classifiers, CatBoost is incorporated as a statistical expert, and its prediction results are injected into the prompt as prior guidance. A contrastive few-shot learning strategy is further adopted to compensate for limited data. Finally, we design structured prompts to embed aviation-specific knowledge into the inference process. Using hard landing, a representative risk event with complex causal mechanisms, as an anchor point, we evaluate FlightLLM on a dataset of 704 real-world A320 flight samples. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves competitive classification performance while generating direct and reasonable explanations for event causes.

Airport surface operations increasingly constrain performance at high-throughput hubs. This study examines arrival taxi-in decisions at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (KATL) and proposes a two-stage, data-driven decision aid that mirrors controller workflow. Stage I predicts the runway exit selected by an arriving aircraft. Stage II predicts whether, given that exit, the aircraft will cross the active departure runway at a designated point or use the end-around taxiway. Models are trained using ASDE-X surface trajectories, aircraft characteristics, ramp destinations, short-horizon traffic rates, and weather across multiple look-back windows. We benchmark nine classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and evaluate accuracy, macro-F1, precision-recall behavior, confusion matrices, Brier score, and Expected Calibration Error. Across east and west flows, XGBoost and LightGBM outperform Random Forest. Stage I achieves 0.86-0.89 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.40-0.50, while Stage II achieves 0.70-0.74 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.28-0.55. Feature-importance analysis shows that approach speed is the main driver of exit choice. Departure rate, crossing rate, ramp destination, and, for west flow, the selected exit are the strongest predictors of crossing versus end-around routing. Minority classes remain harder to predict because of feature-space overlap, as shown by t-SNE and UMAP analyses. The proposed framework supports controller situational awareness through calibrated, explainable predictions while preserving human responsibility for final routing decisions.

We investigate frameworks for post-flight safety analysis at non-towered airports using large language models (LLMs). Non-towered airports rely on the Common Traffic Advisory Frequency (CTAF) for air traffic coordination and experience frequent near mid-air collisions due to the pilot self-announcement communication protocol. We propose a general vision-language model (VLM) approach to analyze the transcribed CTAF radio communications in natural language, METeorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) weather data, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) flight trajectories, and Visual Flight Rules sectional charts of the airfield. We provide a preliminary study at Half Moon Bay Airport, with a qualitative real world case study and a quantitative evaluation using a new synthetic dataset of communications and weather modalities. We qualitatively evaluate our framework on real flight data using Gemini 2.5 Pro, demonstrating accurate identification of a right-of-way violation. The synthetic dataset is derived from real examples and includes a 12-category hazard taxonomy, and is used to benchmark three open-source (Qwen 2.5-7B, Mistral-7B, Gemma-2-9B) and three closed-source (GPT-4o, GPT-5.4, Claude Sonnet 4.6) LLM models on the subset of inputs related to CTAF and METAR. Even limited to CTAF and METAR inputs and open source LLMs, instances of our framework typically achieve a macro F1 score above 0.85 on a binary nominal/danger classification task. Future work includes a quantitative evaluation across all modalities and a larger number of real world examples. Taken together, our results suggest that VLM analysis of safety at non-towered airports may be a valuable future capability.