Best-Arm Identification

We study fixed-confidence best-action identification (BAI) in stochastic minimax trees. This problem is increasingly relevant in modern AI planning, where deep minimax search and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with language model long rollouts face a fundamental tradeoff: heuristic evaluations are cheap but biased, while accurate rollouts are reliable but prohibitively expensive. We propose 2FFS, a two-fidelity tree-search algorithm that brings multi-fidelity flat bandit ideas into trees. The algorithm combines minimax-style fast expansion with MCTS-style stochastic sampling, adaptively deciding when to exploit cheap biased evaluations and when to invoke expensive accurate evaluations for local certification. We prove fixed-confidence correctness, establish finite stopping for exact identification, and give a polynomial-depth cost upper bound for general-depth trees. Across numerical stochastic-tree experiments, 2FFS uses substantially fewer samples and computational operations comparing to existing BAI-MCTS baseline.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is effective for expensive black-box optimization, but its performance often degrades on multimodal or high-dimensional problems. A promising remedy is to run multiple local search processes, such as trust region--based BO, and allocate evaluations to those with high potential. However, current best values do not always reflect the final performance of each process. We propose a trajectory-aware best-arm identification (BAI) framework that uses optimization history to guide this allocation. The proposed method extrapolates improvement trajectories, estimates final performance, and progressively eliminates low-potential candidates. For trust region--based BO, we theoretically show that the proposed BAI-guided allocation accelerates convergence to the global optimum under mild assumptions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that our method improves BO on multimodal problems. We also show that the same mechanism can enhance other local or population-based optimizers, suggesting its potential as a general extension strategy for multimodal black-box optimization.

We study the contextual multi-armed bandit problem with a finite context space (a.k.a. subpopulations), where the learner recommends a best action for each context and is evaluated by context-weighted simple regret. Our guarantees are worst-case over the reward distributions, while remaining instance-dependent with respect to the context distribution vector $p$. Akin to experimental design problems where the population of interest is fixed but the sampled subpopulation can be controlled, we allow the learner to actively choose which context to sample from. For a known $p$, we characterize tight regret rates: passive sampling where contexts are randomly revealed achieves regret of order $\sqrt{n/T \, \lVert p \rVert_{1/2}}$, whereas active sampling with allocation $q_j \propto p_j^{2/3}$ achieves the tight rate $\sqrt{n/T} \, \lVert p \rVert_{2/3}$. The resulting improvement can be as large as $Θ(k^{1/4})$, where $k$ is the number of contexts. We further extend the analysis to budgeted active sampling, characterize the corresponding tight rate, and identify when a limited active budget suffices to recover the fully active rate. When $p$ is unknown, we propose the Explore-Explore-Then-Commit (EETC) algorithm, which optimally balances estimating the context distribution and the time to switch to active allocation, such that for large horizons, it matches the known-$p$ active rate up to constants. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data support our theoretical findings.

We study the minimax sample complexity of $\varepsilon$-best arm identification in linear bandits. Given a compact action set $\mathcal{X}$ that spans $\mathbb{R}^d$ and an unknown reward vector $θ\in\mathbb{R}^d$, the goal is to output an arm $\widehat{x}\in\mathcal{X}$ such that $\langle \widehat{x},θ\rangle \ge \max_{x\in\mathcal{X}} \langle x,θ\rangle - \varepsilon$ with probability at least $1-δ$, using as few samples as possible. First, we present a non-adaptive fixed-design method with sample complexity $\mathcal{O}\!\left(\frac{d\log(1/δ)}{\varepsilon^2}+\frac{w(\mathcal{X})^2}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$, where $w(\mathcal{X})$ is a Gaussian width term dependent on $\mathcal{X}$, and we prove a matching lower bound $Ω\!\left(\frac{d\log(1/δ)}{\varepsilon^2}+\frac{w(\mathcal{X})^2}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ for all non-adaptive fixed-design methods. We then turn to adaptive sampling. We raise an important structural question: beyond the canonical basis, are there structured action sets for which adaptivity yields only logarithmic-factor improvements over the optimal non-adaptive rate? We answer in the affirmative for several natural action sets, namely the hypercube, the $\ell_2$ ball, $m$-sets, and multi-task multi-armed bandits. Finally, we provide the first construction of an action set $\mathcal{X}$ for which adaptivity yields a polynomial-factor improvement over every non-adaptive algorithm. A key ingredient behind this separation is an $\ell_2$-norm estimation subroutine: we design an adaptive algorithm that uses $\mathcal{O}\!\left(\frac{d\log(1/δ)}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ samples from the unit $\ell_2$ ball in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and outputs an estimate $\widehat r$ satisfying $|\widehat r-\|θ\|_2|\le \varepsilon$ with probability at least $1-δ$, where $θ$ is the unknown reward vector.

Selecting the best large language model (LLM) for a fixed benchmark is often expensive, since exhaustive evaluation requires running every model on every example. Multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms can reduce the number of LLM calls by sequentially selecting the next model-example pair to evaluate, thereby avoiding wasted evaluations on clearly underperforming models. Further savings can be achieved by predicting model scores from the partially observed model-example score matrix using low-rank factorization. However, such predictions are not ground truth: they can be biased and may therefore lead to incorrect identification of the best model. In this work, we propose a principled framework that combines MAB with cheap predicted scores without compromising statistical validity. Specifically, we derive doubly robust estimators of each model's performance that use the low-rank predictions to reduce variance. This enables the construction of valid finite-sample confidence intervals in our setting, where models are selected adaptively and examples are sampled without replacement. Empirical results on real-world benchmarks show that our approach reduces the number of required evaluations, yielding meaningful savings in compute and cost while accurately identifying the best-performing model.

Many high-stakes decisions in health care, public policy, and clinical development require committing to a single policy that will be applied uniformly across a heterogeneous population. Regulatory and fairness standards sometime requires that the chosen policy performs adequately in every pre-specified subpopulation, not only on average. We formalize this as a Selection of the Best with Fairness Constraints (SBFC) problem, in order to identify the policy with the highest average performance among those policies that meet a minimum per-subpopulation threshold. We establish an instance-specific lower bound on sample complexity of the SBFC problem. We then develop a Track-and-Stop with Constraints on Subpopulation (T-a-S-CS) algorithm that achieves the lower bound asymptotically. We extend the framework to general closed-set and penalty-based fairness specifications with matching guarantees. Numerical experiments and a case study using the International Stroke Trial demonstrate substantial efficiency gains over policy-level allocation baselines.

We study fixed-confidence best arm identification in generalized linear bandits under a hybrid feedback model: at each round, the learner may query either (i) absolute reward feedback from a single arm or (ii) relative (dueling) feedback from an arm pair, both governed by generalized linear models. We introduce a likelihood-ratio--based confidence sequence that unifies heterogeneous generalized linear observations and yields an explicit ellipsoidal confidence set under a self-concordance assumption. Building on this confidence set, we propose a hybrid Track-and-Stop algorithm that adaptively allocates queries by tracking a minimax-optimal design over a joint action space of arms and pairs. We establish $δ$-correctness and provide high-probability upper bounds on the stopping time. We further extend the framework to a cost-aware setting that accounts for heterogeneous acquisition costs across feedback modalities. Empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithms significantly improve sample efficiency over baseline methods.

In multi-armed bandits, the most-explored arms are the most informative, while reward maximization typically pulls only the best arm. We study the tradeoff between identifying arm means accurately and accumulating reward, and present an algorithm with regret guarantees that interpolates between the two objectives. We provide both upper and lower bounds and validate empirically.

We study bandit best-arm identification with arbitrary and potentially adversarial rewards. A simple random uniform learner obtains the optimal rate of error in the adversarial scenario. However, this type of strategy is suboptimal when the rewards are sampled stochastically. Therefore, we ask: Can we design a learner that performs optimally in both the stochastic and adversarial problems while not being aware of the nature of the rewards? First, we show that designing such a learner is impossible in general. In particular, to be robust to adversarial rewards, we can only guarantee optimal rates of error on a subset of the stochastic problems. We give a lower bound that characterizes the optimal rate in stochastic problems if the strategy is constrained to be robust to adversarial rewards. Finally, we design a simple parameter-free algorithm and show that its probability of error matches (up to log factors) the lower bound in stochastic problems, and it is also robust to adversarial ones.

Large language models (LLMs) have significant potential to improve operational efficiency in operations management. Deploying these models requires specifying a policy that governs response quality, shapes user experience, and influences operational value. In this research, we treat LLMs as stochastic simulators and propose a pairwise comparison-based adaptive simulation experiment framework for identifying the optimal policy from a finite set of candidates. We consider two policy spaces: an unstructured space with no parametric assumption, and a structured space in which the data are generated from a preference model. For both settings, we characterize the fundamental data requirements for identifying the optimal policy with high probability. In the unstructured case, we derive a closed-form expression for the optimal sampling proportions, together with a clear operational interpretation. In the structured case, we formulate a regularized convex program to compute the optimal proportions. We then develop an adaptive experimental procedure, termed LLM-PO, for both policy spaces, and prove that it identifies the optimal policy with the desired statistical guarantee while asymptotically attaining the fundamental data requirements. Numerical experiments demonstrate that LLM-PO consistently outperforms benchmark methods and improves LLM performance.

We study fixed-confidence Best Arm Identification (BAI) in semiparametric bandits, where rewards are linear in arm features plus an unknown additive baseline shift. Unlike linear-bandit BAI, this setting requires orthogonalized regression, and its instance-optimal sample complexity has remained open. For the transductive setting, we establish an attainable instance-dependent lower bound characterized by the corresponding linear-bandit complexity on shifted features. We then propose a computationally efficient phase-elimination algorithm based on a new $XY$-design for orthogonalized regression. Our analysis yields a nearly optimal high-probability sample-complexity upper bound, up to log factors and an additive $d^2$ term, and experiments on synthetic instances and the Jester dataset show clear gains over prior baselines.

In this paper, we consider a multi-armed bandit (MAB) instance and study how to identify the best arm when arm commands are conveyed from a central learner to a distributed agent over a discrete memoryless channel (DMC). Depending on the agent capabilities, we provide communication schemes along with their analysis, which interestingly relate to the zero-error capacity of the underlying DMC.

We study best-arm identification in stochastic dueling bandits under the sole assumption that a Condorcet winner exists, i.e., an arm that wins each noisy pairwise comparison with probability at least $1/2$. We introduce a new identification procedure that exploits the full gap matrix $Δ_{i,j}=q_{i,j}-\tfrac12$ (where $q_{i,j}$ is the probability that arm $i$ beats arm $j$), rather than only the gaps between the Condorcet winner and the other arms. We derive high-probability, instance-dependent sample-complexity guarantees that (up to logarithmic factors) improve the best known ones by leveraging informative comparisons beyond those involving the winner. We complement these results with new lower bounds which, to our knowledge, are the first for Condorcet-winner identification in stochastic dueling bandits. Our lower-bound analysis isolates the intrinsic cost of locating informative entries in the gap matrix and estimating them to the required confidence, establishing the optimality of our non-asymptotic bounds. Overall, our results reveal new regimes and trade-offs in the sample complexity that are not captured by asymptotic analyses based only on the expected budget.

Designing service systems requires selecting among alternative configurations -- choosing the best chatbot variant, the optimal routing policy, or the most effective quality control procedure. In many service systems, the primary evidence of performance quality is textual -- customer support transcripts, complaint narratives, compliance review reports -- rather than the scalar measurements assumed by classical optimization methods. Large language models (LLMs) can read such textual evidence and produce standardized quality scores, but these automated judges exhibit systematic biases that vary across alternatives and evaluation instances. Human expert review remains accurate but costly. We study how to identify the best service configuration with high confidence while minimizing expensive human audits, given that automated evaluation is cheap but biased. We formalize this as a sequential decision problem where a biased proxy score is observed for every evaluation, and a verified outcome can be acquired selectively at additional cost. We prove that LLM-only selection fails under arm-dependent bias, and that naive selective-audit estimators can be asymptotically biased. We develop an estimator combining proxy scores with inverse-propensity-weighted residuals and construct anytime-valid confidence sequences. Our algorithm, PP-LUCB, jointly decides which alternatives to evaluate and whether to request human audits, concentrating reviews where the LLM judge is least reliable. We prove correctness and establish instance-dependent cost bounds showing near-optimal efficiency. On a customer support ticket classification task, our algorithm correctly identifies the best model in 40/40 trials while achieving 90% audit cost reduction.

We study the fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) problem in non-stationary linear bandits. Concretely, given a fixed time budget $T\in \mathbb{N}$, finite arm set $\mathcal{X} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$, and a potentially adversarial sequence of unknown parameters $\lbrace θ_t\rbrace_{t=1}^{T}$ (hence non-stationary), a learner aims to identify the arm with the largest cumulative reward $x_* = \arg\max_{x \in \mathcal{X}} x^\top\sum_{t=1}^T θ_t$ with high probability. In this setting, it is well-known that i.i.d. sampling arms from the G-optimal design yields a minimax-optimal error probability of $\exp\left(-Θ\left(T / H_{G}\right)\right)$, where $H_{G}$ scales proportionally with the dimension $d$. However, this notion of complexity is overly pessimistic, as it is derived from a lower bound in which the arm set consists only of the standard basis vectors, thus masking any potential advantages arising from arm sets with richer geometric structure. To address this, we establish an arm-set-dependent lower bound that, in contrast, holds for any arm set. Motivated by the ideas underlying our lower bound, we propose the Adjacent-optimal design, a specialization of the well-known $\mathcal{X}\mathcal{Y}$-optimal design, and develop the $\textsf{Adjacent-BAI}$ algorithm. We prove that the error probability of $\textsf{Adjacent-BAI}$ matches our lower bound up to constants, verifying the tightness of our lower bound, and establishing the arm-set-dependent complexity of this setting.

We study fixed budget constrained best-arm identification in grouped bandits, where each arm consists of multiple independent attributes with stochastic rewards. An arm is considered feasible only if all its attributes' means are above a given threshold. The aim is to find the feasible arm with the largest overall mean. We first derive a lower bound on the error probability for any algorithm on this setting. We then propose Feasibility Constrained Successive Rejects (FCSR), a novel algorithm that identifies the best arm while ensuring feasibility. We show it attains optimal dependence on problem parameters up to constant factors in the exponent. Empirically, FCSR outperforms natural baselines while preserving feasibility guarantees.

In many applications, evaluating the effectiveness of different alternatives comes with varying costs or resource usage. Motivated by such heterogeneity, we study the Best Arm Identification with Resource Constraints (BAIwRC) problem, where an agent seeks to identify the best alternative (aka arm) in the presence of resource constraints. Each arm pull consumes one or more types of limited resources. We make two key contributions. First, we propose the Successive Halving with Resource Rationing (SH-RR) algorithm, which integrates resource-aware allocation into the classical successive halving framework on best arm identification. The SH-RR algorithm unifies the theoretical analysis for both the stochastic and deterministic consumption settings, with a new \textit{effective consumption measure

We introduce Box Thirding (B3), a flexible and efficient algorithm for Best Arm Identification (BAI) under fixed-budget constraints. It is designed for both anytime BAI and scenarios with large N, where the number of arms is too large for exhaustive evaluation within a limited budget T. The algorithm employs an iterative ternary comparison: in each iteration, three arms are compared--the best-performing arm is explored further, the median is deferred for future comparisons, and the weakest is discarded. Even without prior knowledge of T, B3 achieves an epsilon-best arm misidentification probability comparable to Successive Halving (SH), which requires T as a predefined parameter, applied to a randomly selected subset of c0 arms that fit within the budget. Empirical results show that B3 outperforms existing methods under limited-budget constraints in terms of simple regret, as demonstrated on the New Yorker Cartoon Caption Contest dataset.

In active sequential testing, also termed pure exploration, a learner is tasked with the goal to adaptively acquire information so as to identify an unknown ground-truth hypothesis with as few queries as possible. This problem has several motivating applications, including Best-Arm Identification (BAI) in bandits, where actions index hypotheses, and generalized search problems, where strategically chosen queries reveal partial information about a hidden label. In many modern settings, however, the hypothesis, or recommendation space, is continuous: for example, identifying a near optimal action in a continuous-armed bandit, localizing an $ε$-ball contained in a target region, or estimating the minimizer of a function from noisy observations. Existing methods are predominantly frequentist and model-specific, while learned approaches have been limited to finite recommendation spaces. We introduce C-ICPE, a theory-guided learned model for Bayesian fixed-confidence pure exploration with continuous recommendations. C-ICPE meta-trains sequential architectures over a task prior to jointly learn exploration, stopping and recommendations strategies. At inference time, it actively gathers evidence on tasks and identifies an $ε$-optimal recommendation without parameter updates.