Conditional Diffusion Models

Typically, numerical simulations of Earth systems are coarse, and Earth observations are sparse and gappy. We apply four generative diffusion modeling approaches to super-resolution and inference of forced two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic turbulence on the beta-plane from coarse, sparse, and gappy observations. Two guided approaches minimally adapt a pre-trained unconditional model: SDEdit modifies the initial condition, and Diffusion Posterior Sampling (DPS) modifies the reverse diffusion process score. Two conditional approaches, a vanilla variant and classifier-free guidance, require training with paired high-resolution and observation data. We consider multiple test cases spanning: two regimes, eddy and anisotropic-jet turbulence; two Reynolds numbers, 10^3 and 10^4; and two observation types, 4x coarse-resolution fields and coarse, sparse and gappy observations. Our comprehensive skill metrics include norms of the reconstructed vorticity fields, turbulence statistical quantities, and quantifications of the super-resolved probabilistic ensembles and their errors. We also study the sensitivity to tuning parameters such as guidance strength. Results show that the generated super-resolution fields of SDEdit are unphysical, while those of DPS are reasonable but with smoothed fine-scale features; however, neither of these lower-cost models propagates observational information effectively to unobserved regions. The two conditional models require re-training, but reconstruct missing fine-scale features, are cycle-consistent with observations, and predict correct turbulence statistics, including the tails. Further, their mean errors are highly correlated with and predictable from their ensemble standard deviations. Results highlight the tradeoffs between ease of implementation, fidelity (sharpness), and cycle-consistency of the diffusion models, and offer practical guidance for deployment.

We propose a latent score-based generative AI framework for learning stochastic, non-local closure models and constitutive laws in nonlinear dynamical systems of computational mechanics. This work addresses a key challenge of modeling complex multiscale dynamical systems without a clear scale separation, for which numerically resolving all scales is prohibitively expensive, e.g., for engineering turbulent flows. While classical closure modeling methods leverage domain knowledge to approximate subgrid-scale phenomena, their deterministic and local assumptions can be too restrictive in regimes lacking a clear scale separation. Recent developments of diffusion-based stochastic models have shown promise in the context of closure modeling, but their prohibitive computational inference cost limits practical applications in many real-world settings. This work addresses this limitation by jointly training convolutional autoencoders with conditional diffusion models in latent space, significantly reducing the dimensionality of the sampling process while preserving essential physical characteristics. Numerical results demonstrate that the joint training approach helps discover a proper latent space that not only guarantees small reconstruction errors but also ensures good performance of the diffusion model in the latent space. When integrated into numerical simulations, the proposed stochastic modeling framework via latent conditional diffusion models achieves significant computational acceleration while maintaining comparable predictive accuracy to standard diffusion models in physical space.

Diffusion models generate conditional samples by progressively denoising Gaussian noise, yet the denoising trajectory can stall at visually plausible but low-quality outcomes with conditional misalignment or structural artifacts. We interpret this behavior as local optima in a surrogate quality landscape: Once early denoising commits to a suboptimal global structure, later steps mainly sharpen details and seldom correct the underlying mistake. While existing inference-time approaches explore alternative diffusion states via re-noising with fixed strength or direction, they exhibit limited capacity to escape steep quality plateaus. We propose Controlled Random Zigzag Sampling (Ctrl-Z Sampling),a scalable sampling strategy that detects plateaus in quality landscape via a surrogate score, and allocates exploration only when a plateau is detected. Upon detection, Ctrl-Z Sampling rolls back to noisier states, samples a set of alternative continuations, and updates the trajectory when a candidate improves the score, otherwise escalating the exploration depth to escape the current plateau. The proposed method is model-agnostic and broadly compatible with existing diffusion frameworks. Experiments show that Ctrl-Z Sampling consistently improves generation quality over other inference-time scaling samplers across different NFE budgets, offering a scalable compute-quality trade-off. Code available at: https://github.com/ShunqiM/Ctrl-Z-Sampling.

Diffusion models now serve as a common foundation for multimedia generation, and useful intermediate representations emerge during their generative training. Standard architectures, however, propagate these representations through the main feature stream, without explicitly reintroducing their encoded semantics to later denoising layers. Meanwhile, such backbones already provide a conditioning pathway for global modulation by predefined inputs. This work examines whether this native pathway can also route internally inferred semantics as evolving, sample-dependent cues. We propose Conditioning Residuals, a lightweight feedback mechanism that converts aggregated features into residuals added to condition embeddings. By feeding back compact feature summaries, it provides adaptive generative guidance and encourages a tighter semantic bottleneck, without external encoders, auxiliary objectives, or sampling-time changes. It supports feedback at one or multiple depths in UNet and DiT backbones, with negligible overhead. Across diffusion formulations, backbone configurations, and datasets, experiments show consistent gains in generative performance, along with stronger representations in downstream linear probing and segmentation. Mechanistic analyses reveal improved generative training dynamics and reshaped feature structure, suggesting a grounded, generalizable way to enhance diffusion backbones from within.

We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional parameter estimation methods rely on repeated simulations of potentially expensive forward models to determine the posterior distribution of the parameter values, which may result in computationally intractable workflows. Furthermore, methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) necessitate rerunning the entire algorithm for each new data observation, further increasing the computational burden. Hence, we propose a novel method for efficiently obtaining posterior distributions of parameter estimates for high-fidelity models given data observations of interest. The method first constructs a low-fidelity, conditional generative model capable of amortized Bayesian inference and hence rapid posterior density approximation over a wide-range of data observations. When higher accuracy is needed for a specific data observation, the method employs adaptive refinement of the density approximation. It uses outputs from the low-fidelity generative model to refine the parameter sampling space, ensuring efficient use of the computationally expensive high-fidelity solver. Subsequently, a high-fidelity, unconditional generative model is trained to achieve greater accuracy in the target posterior distribution. Both low- and high- fidelity generative models enable efficient sampling from the target posterior and do not require repeated simulation of the high-fidelity forward model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several numerical examples, including cases with multi-modal densities, as well as an application in plasma physics for a runaway electron simulation model.