Large Deviation Principles

We show how large-deviation statistics allows one to obtain reliable estimates of the multiplicity of stable fixed-points in a model of neural ordinary differential equations previously employed in computational tasks. The result is obtained by developing a suitable perturbative method in the amplitude of the disorder. It turns out that for not-too-large coupling strengths there are no qualitative differences between the symmetric case, when the dynamics is a purely gradient evolution, and the asymmetric case, when limit cycles and chaos can, in principle, arise. The selection of this specific model is dictated by pedagogical reasons, but we are confident that the approach can be extended to other many-degree-of-freedom dynamical models characterized by different classes of random coupling matrices.

We propose annealed entropic allocation, an adaptive sampling policy based on an annealed, weighted soft-min formulation of static budget allocation. We replace the maximin large-deviation rate objective with a weighted log-sum-exp surrogate that blends challenger-specific pairwise scores through soft-min weights, avoiding hard switching when several challengers are nearly active. To capture tail behavior beyond the leading exponent, the surrogate incorporates saddlepoint prefactors from refined pairwise tail asymptotics. Because these corrections are subexponential, decreasing the annealing temperature with the budget preserves the same first-order target allocation. For the static problem, we prove uniform convergence to the hard minimum, concentration of soft-min weights on active challengers, and continuity of the induced target-allocation map under fixed weights. Experiments show that the proposed methods are consistently competitive: the no-saddlepoint ablation performs best in symmetric Gaussian and exponential slippage settings, while saddlepoint weighting can help in heterogeneous or asymmetric cases.

Let $S$ be the set of unit norm linear classifiers $θ\in \mathbb{R}^d$ which correctly classify every point of a labeled dataset $(X_i,y_i)_{i=1}^n$, $X_i \in \mathbb{R}^d$, $y_i \in \{-1,+1\}$, with a possibly negative margin $κ$ fixed in advance. Under two natural data-generating distributions of the $(X,y)$ pairs -- a Gaussian mixture model and a logistic model with Gaussian features -- and in the proportional regime $n/d \to α$ with small enough $α$, we establish a large deviation principle on the event that a point $θ$ chosen uniformly at random from $S$ achieves a given generalization error, with high probability over the choice of the data. The associated large deviation rate function is deterministic and describes the proportion, at the exponential scale in $d$, of interpolating classifiers having a given desired performance. As a consequence, we establish the following concentration phenomenon: all but an exponentially small fraction of interpolating classifiers have approximately the same generalization performance given by the unique maximizer of this rate function. We numerically compare this maximizer to the performance of empirical risk minimization by gradient descent and to the performance of a natural linear program, both finding a point in $S$, and deduce that in the overparametrized regime of small $α$, these efficient procedures outperform the vast majority of interpolators, pointing to their nontrivial benign overfitting in this setting.

Data acquisition efficiency is a central challenge in deploying reinforcement learning in business and healthcare operations, where interactions are costly, slow, and often involve humans in the loop. This paper develops a unified large deviations framework for data acquisition in infinite-horizon reinforcement learning. We introduce the exponential decay rate of the policy-selection error probability as a principled efficiency metric and derive a variational characterization of this rate via large deviations theory for Markov chains, yielding a nested optimization problem. Based on this characterization, we formalize two complementary notions of optimality in terms of the optimal solution of the nested problem. Because the resulting program is implicit and generally intractable, we propose a tractable convex relaxation with explicit constraints. We then develop a lazy one-step projected subgradient method to solve the relaxed problem and use its iterates to construct an adaptive data acquisition policy. We prove that the resulting reinforcement learning algorithm is near-robustly optimal under our optimality criterion, up to a constant factor. Finally, we extend the framework to linear function approximation to improve scalability, and numerical experiments support the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Large loss spikes in stochastic gradient descent are studied through a rigorous large-deviations analysis for a shallow, fully connected network in the NTK scaling. In contrast to full-batch gradient descent, the catapult phase is shown to split into inflationary and deflationary regimes, determined by an explicit log-drift criterion. In both cases, large spikes are shown to be at least polynomially likely. In addition, these spikes are shown to be the dominant mechanism by which sharp minima are escaped and curvature is reduced, thereby favouring flatter solutions. Corresponding results are also obtained for certain ReLU networks, and implications for curriculum learning are derived.

The forward and reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences arise as limiting objectives in learning and inference yet induce markedly different inductive biases that cannot be explained at the level of expectations alone. In this work, we introduce the Surprisal-Rényi Free Energy (SRFE), a log-moment-based functional of the likelihood ratio that lies outside the class of $f$-divergences. We show that SRFE recovers forward and reverse KL divergences as singular endpoint limits and derive local expansions around both limits in which the variance of the log-likelihood ratio appears as a first-order correction. This reveals an explicit mean-variance tradeoff governing departures from KL-dominated regimes. We further establish a Gibbs-type variational characterization of SRFE as the unique minimizer of a weighted sum of KL divergences and prove that SRFE directly controls large deviations of excess code-length via Chernoff-type bounds, yielding a precise Minimum Description Length interpretation. Together, these results identify SRFE as a variance- and tail-sensitive free-energy functional that clarifies the geometric and large-deviation structure underlying forward and reverse KL limits, without unifying or subsuming distinct learning frameworks.

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate functions-on predictors, providing an emerging notion of complexity and feature learning directly at the functional level. We show that the posterior output rate function is obtained by a joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels, in contrast with fixed-kernel (NNGP) theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the resulting predictions accurately describe finite-width behavior for moderately sized networks, capturing non-Gaussian tails, posterior deformation, and data-dependent kernel selection effects.

Gibbs measures, such as Coulomb gases, are popular in modelling systems of interacting particles. Recently, we proposed to use Gibbs measures as randomized numerical integration algorithms with respect to a target measure $π$ on $\mathbb R^d$, following the heuristics that repulsiveness between particles should help reduce integration errors. A major issue in this approach is to tune the interaction kernel and confining potential of the Gibbs measure, so that the equilibrium measure of the system is the target distribution $π$. Doing so usually requires another Monte Carlo approximation of the potential, i.e. the integral of the interaction kernel with respect to $π$. Using the methodology of large deviations from Garcia--Zelada (2019), we show that a random approximation of the potential preserves the fast large deviation principle that guarantees the proposed integration algorithm to outperform independent or Markov quadratures. For non-singular interaction kernels, we make minimal assumptions on this random approximation, which can be the result of a computationally cheap Monte Carlo preprocessing. For the Coulomb interaction kernel, we need the approximation to be based on another Gibbs measure, and we prove in passing a control on the uniform convergence of the approximation of the potential.