Markov Decision Processes

Latest papers 116

May 2, 2026cs.LG

Robust Parameter Learning for Uncertain MDPs

Learning-based approaches to verifying unknown Markov decision processes (MDPs) often employ uncertain MDPs. These models use, for example, confidence intervals to capture transition uncertainty and allow synthesis of policies that are robust to this uncertainty. However, this approach typically quantifies uncertainty independently for individual transition probabilities, ignoring dependencies due to shared latent quantities. We propose to learn such models using parametric MDPs (pMDPs), where transition probabilities are expressions over a set of parameters. We project statistical uncertainty from empirical transition frequencies onto the pMDP's parameter space, yielding a probably approximately correct (PAC) uncertainty model for the underlying MDP that respects the algebraic dependencies between transitions. The resulting models are algorithmically challenging to solve, so we propose a hierarchy of sound polytopic outer approximations of the induced confidence set. We implement and evaluate our approach, demonstrating substantially tighter uncertainty estimates than classical interval-based uncertain MDP learning techniques.
May 2, 2026cs.LG

Breaking the Computational Barrier: Provably Efficient Actor-Critic for Low-Rank MDPs

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a fundamental framework for sequential decision-making, in which an agent learns an optimal policy through interactions with an unknown environment. In settings with function approximation, many existing RL algorithms achieve favorable sample complexity, but often rely on computationally intractable oracles. In this paper, we use supervised learning as a computational proxy to establish a clear hierarchy of commonly adopted RL oracles under low-rank Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). This hierarchy shows that policy evaluation is the most computationally efficient oracle, provided that supervised learning can be efficiently solved. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel optimistic actor-critic algorithm that relies solely on the policy evaluation oracle. We prove that our algorithm outperforms the existing sample complexity guarantees for low-rank MDPs while avoiding computationally expensive planning or optimization oracles commonly assumed in prior works. We further extend our theoretical results to approximately low-rank MDPs and demonstrate that this setting captures a broad class of real-world environments. Finally, we validate our theoretical results with experiments on several standard Gym environments.
May 1, 2026cs.LG

Reinforcement Learning with Markov Risk Measures and Multipattern Risk Approximation

For a risk-averse finite-horizon Markov Decision Problem, we introduce a special class of Markov coherent risk measures, called mini-batch measures. We also define the class of multipattern risk-averse problems that generalizes the class of linear systems. We use both concepts in a feature-based QQ-learning method with multipattern QQ-factor approximation and we prove a high-probability regret bound of O(H2NHK)\mathcal{O}\big(H^2 N^H \sqrt{ K}\big), where HH is the horizon, NN is the mini-batch size, and KK is the number of episodes. We also propose an economical version of the QQ-learning method that streamlines the policy evaluation (backward) step. The theoretical results are illustrated on a stochastic assignment problem and a short-horizon multi-armed bandit problem.
May 1, 2026cs.LG

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Double Oracle Efficiency in Policy Optimization and Offline Estimation

Reinforcement learning (RL) in large environments often suffers from severe computational bottlenecks, as conventional regret minimization algorithms require repeated, costly calls to planning and statistical estimation oracles. While recent advances have explored offline oracle-efficient algorithms, their computational complexity typically scales with the cardinality of the state and action spaces, rendering them intractable for large-scale or continuous environments. In this paper, we address this fundamental limitation by studying offline oracle-efficient episodic RL through the lens of log-barrier and log-determinant regularization. Specifically, for tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we propose a novel algorithm that achieves the optimal O~(T)\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) regret bound while requiring only O(Hlog⁡log⁡T)O(H\log\log T) calls to both the offline statistical estimation and planning oracles when TT is known and O(Hlog⁡T)O(H\log T) calls when TT is unknown. Crucially, this oracle complexity is entirely independent of the size of the state and action spaces. This strict independence drastically reduces the planning oracle complexity, representing a substantial improvement over existing offline oracle-efficient algorithms (Qian et al., 2024). Furthermore, we demonstrate the versatility of our framework by generalizing the algorithm to linear MDPs featuring infinite state spaces and arbitrary action spaces. We prove that this generalized approach successfully attains meaningful sub-linear regret. Consequently, our work yields the first doubly oracle-efficient (i.e., efficient with respect to both statistical estimation and policy optimization) regret minimization algorithm capable of solving MDPs with infinite state and action spaces, significantly expanding the boundaries of computationally tractable RL.
Apr 24, 2026cs.LG

Optimal sequential decision-making for error propagation mitigation in digital twins

Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics residuals, we develop a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in which the inferred regimes serve as states, corrective interventions serve as actions, and a scalar reward that takes into consideration the cost-benefit tradeoff between system fidelity and maintenance expense. The baseline transition matrix is extracted from the HMM-learned parameters. We then extend the formulation to a Partially Observable MDP (POMDP) that accounts for the imperfect nature of regime classification by maintaining a belief distribution updated via Bayesian filtering, with the HMM confusion matrix serving as the observation model. Both formulations are solved via dynamic programming and validated through Gillespie stochastic simulation. We then benchmark two model-free reinforcement learning algorithms, Q-learning and REINFORCE, to assess whether effective policies can be learned without explicit model knowledge. A systematic comparison of different intervention policies demonstrates that the MDP policy achieves the highest cumulative reward and fraction of time in nominal operation, while the POMDP recovers approximately 95% of MDP performance under realistic observation noise. Sensitivity analyses across observation quality, repair probability, and discount factor confirm the robustness of these conclusions, and the major gaps in the policy hierarchy are statistically significant at p<0.001p < 0.001. The gap between MDP and POMDP performance quantifies the value of information providing a principled criterion for investing in improved classification accuracy.
Apr 20, 2026cs.LG

Scale-free adaptive planning for deterministic dynamics & discounted rewards

We address the problem of planning in an environment with deterministic dynamics and stochastic rewards with discounted returns. The optimal value function is not known, nor are the rewards bounded. We propose Platypoos, a simple scale-free planning algorithm that adapts to the unknown scale and smoothness of the reward function. We provide a sample complexity analysis for Platypoos that improves upon prior work and holds simultaneously over a broad range of discount factors and reward scales, without the algorithm knowing them. We also establish a matching lower bound showing our analysis is optimal up to constants.
Apr 20, 2026cs.AI

Physics-Informed Causal MDPs for Sequential Constraint Repair in Engineering Simulation Pipelines

Off-policy learning in constrained MDPs with large binary state spaces faces a fundamental tension: causal identification of transition dynamics requires structural assumptions, while sample-efficient policy learning requires state-space compression. We introduce PI-CMDP, a framework for CMDPs whose constraint dependencies form a layered DAG under a Lifecycle Ordering Assumption (LOA). We propose an Identify-Compress-Estimate pipeline: (i) Identify: LOA enables backdoor identification of causal edge weights for cross-layer pairs, with formal partial-identification bounds when LOA is violated; (ii) Compress: a Markov abstraction compresses state cardinality from 2^(WL) to (W+1)^L under layer-priority regularity and exchangeability; and (iii) Estimate: a physics-guided doubly-robust estimator remains unbiased and reduces the variance constant when the physics prior outperforms a learned model. We instantiate PI-CMDP on constraint repair in engineering simulation pipelines. On the TPS benchmark (4,206 episodes), PI-CMDP achieves 76.2% repair success rate with only 300 training episodes versus 70.8% for the strongest baseline (+5.4 pp), narrowing to +2.8 pp (83.4% vs. 80.6%) in the full-data regime, while substantially reducing cascade failure rates. All improvements are consistent across 5 independent seeds (paired t-test p < 0.02).
Apr 19, 2026math.OC

Beyond the Bellman Fixed Point: Geometry and Fast Policy Identification in Value Iteration

Q-value iteration (Q-VI) is usually analyzed through the γγ-contraction of the Bellman operator. This argument proves convergence to Q∗Q^*, but it gives only a coarse account of when the induced greedy policy becomes optimal. We study discounted Q-VI as a switching system and focus on the practically optimal solution set (POSS), the set of QQ-functions whose tie-broken greedy policies are optimal. The main result shows that Q-VI reaches the optimal action class in finite time by entering an invariant tube around X1=Q∗+span⁡(1)\mathcal X_1=Q^*+\operatorname{span}(\mathbf 1), which is contained in the POSS. For every ε>0\varepsilon>0, the distance to X1\mathcal X_1 satisfies an exponential bound with rate (ρˉ+ε)k(\barρ+\varepsilon)^k, where ρˉ\barρ is the joint spectral radius of the projected switching family restricted to directions transverse to X1\mathcal X_1. When ρˉ<γ\barρ<γ, this transverse convergence is faster than the classical contraction rate. The analysis separates fast policy identification from the subsequent convergence to Q∗Q^*, which may still be governed by the all-ones mode. We also give spectral and graph-theoretic conditions under which the strict inequality ρˉ<γ\barρ<γ holds or fails.
Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

DARLING: Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning with Non-Stationary Guarantees

We study model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) without prior knowledge of the non-stationarity. We focus on the piecewise stationary (PS) setting, where both rewards and transition dynamics can change at unknown times. We first revisit existing state-of-the-art approaches and identify theoretical and practical limitations that change the current landscape of performance guarantees. To characterize the difficulty of the problem, we establish the first minimax lower bounds for PS-RL in tabular and linear MDPs. We then introduce Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning (DARLING), a modular wrapper for PS-RL that applies to both tabular and linear MDPs, without knowledge of the changes. In tabular MDPs, under change-point separability and reachability conditions, DARLING improves the best known dynamic regret bounds and matches our minimax lower bound. In linear MDPs, DARLING matches the minimax lower bound when the relevant reachability parameters are known, and our analysis clarifies the structural obstacles that distinguish this setting from the tabular case. Finally, through extensive experimentation across diverse non-stationary benchmarks, we show that DARLING consistently surpasses the state-of-the-art methods.
Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model

We study the sample complexity of learning an εε-optimal policy in the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. We first derive sample complexity bounds when the learner has access to a generative model. We show that there exists a worst-case SSP instance with SS states, AA actions, minimum cost cmin⁡c_{\min}, and maximum expected cost of the optimal policy over all states B⋆B_{\star}, where any algorithm requires at least Ω(SAB⋆3/(cmin⁡ε2))Ω(SAB_{\star}^3/(c_{\min}ε^2)) samples to return an εε-optimal policy with high probability. Surprisingly, this implies that whenever cmin⁡=0c_{\min} = 0 an SSP problem may not be learnable, thus revealing that learning in SSPs is strictly harder than in the finite-horizon and discounted settings. We complement this lower bound with an algorithm that matches it, up to logarithmic factors, in the general case, and an algorithm that matches it up to logarithmic factors even when cmin⁡=0c_{\min} = 0, but only under the condition that the optimal policy has a bounded hitting time to the goal state.
Apr 16, 2026cs.LG

Blazing the trails before beating the path: Sample-efficient Monte-Carlo planning

You are a robot and you live in a Markov decision process (MDP) with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. You got brains and so you plan before you act. Luckily, your roboparents equipped you with a generative model to do some Monte-Carlo planning. The world is waiting for you and you have no time to waste. You want your planning to be efficient. Sample-efficient. Indeed, you want to exploit the possible structure of the MDP by exploring only a subset of states reachable by following near-optimal policies. You want guarantees on sample complexity that depend on a measure of the quantity of near-optimal states. You want something, that is an extension of Monte-Carlo sampling (for estimating an expectation) to problems that alternate maximization (over actions) and expectation (over next states). But you do not want to StOP with exponential running time, you want something simple to implement and computationally efficient. You want it all and you want it now. You want TrailBlazer.
Apr 11, 2026cs.LG

When Can You Poison Rewards? A Tight Characterization of Reward Poisoning in Linear MDPs

We study reward poisoning attacks in reinforcement learning (RL), where an adversary manipulates rewards within constrained budgets to force the target RL agent to adopt a policy that aligns with the attacker's objectives. Prior works on reward poisoning mainly focused on sufficient conditions to design a successful attacker, while only a few studies discussed the infeasibility of targeted attacks. This paper provides the first precise necessity and sufficiency characterization of the attackability of a linear MDP under reward poisoning attacks. Our characterization draws a bright line between the vulnerable RL instances, and the intrinsically robust ones which cannot be attacked without large costs even running vanilla non-robust RL algorithms. Our theory extends beyond linear MDPs -- by approximating deep RL environments as linear MDPs, we show that our theoretical framework effectively distinguishes the attackability and efficiently attacks the vulnerable ones, demonstrating both the theoretical and practical significance of our characterization.
Apr 7, 2026math.OC

Value Mirror Descent for Reinforcement Learning

Value iteration-type methods have been extensively studied for computing a nearly optimal value function in reinforcement learning (RL). Under a generative sampling model, these methods can achieve sharper sample complexity than policy optimization approaches, particularly in their dependence on the discount factor. In practice, they are often employed for offline training. In this paper, we consider discounted Markov decision processes with state space S, action space A, discount factor γ∈(0,1)γ\in(0,1) and costs in [0,1][0,1]. We introduce a novel value optimization method, termed value mirror descent (VMD), which integrates mirror descent from convex optimization into the classical value iteration framework. In the deterministic setting with known transition kernels, we show that VMD converges linearly. For the stochastic setting with a generative model, we develop a stochastic variant, SVMD, which incorporates variance reduction commonly used in stochastic value iteration-type methods. For RL problems with general convex regularizers, SVMD attains a near-optimal sample complexity of O~(∣S∣∣A∣(1−γ)−3ε−2)\tilde{O}(|S||A|(1-γ)^{-3}ε^{-2}). Moreover, we establish that the Bregman divergence between the generated and optimal policies remains bounded throughout the iterations, even under the presence of model misspecification. This property is absent in existing stochastic value iteration-type methods but is important for enabling effective online (continual) learning following offline training. Under a strongly convex regularizer, SVMD achieves sample complexity of O~(∣S∣∣A∣(1−γ)−5ε−1)\tilde{O}(|S||A|(1-γ)^{-5}ε^{-1}), improving performance in the high-accuracy regime. Furthermore, we prove convergence of the generated policy to the optimal policy. Overall, the proposed method, its analysis, and the resulting guarantees, constitute new contributions to the RL and optimization literature.
Mar 8, 2026cs.RO

Relating Reinforcement Learning to Dynamic Programming-Based Planning

This paper bridges some of the gap between optimal planning and reinforcement learning (RL), both of which share roots in dynamic programming applied to sequential decision making or optimal control. Whereas planning typically favors deterministic models, goal termination, and cost minimization, RL tends to favor stochastic models, infinite-horizon discounting, and reward maximization in addition to learning-related parameters such as the learning rate and greediness factor. A derandomized version of RL is developed, analyzed, and implemented to yield performance comparisons with value iteration and Dijkstra's algorithm using simple planning models. Next, mathematical analysis shows: 1) conditions under which cost minimization and reward maximization are equivalent, 2) conditions for equivalence of single-shot goal termination and infinite-horizon episodic learning, and 3) conditions under which discounting causes goal achievement to fail. The paper then advocates for defining and optimizing truecost, rather than inserting arbitrary parameters to guide operations. Performance studies are then extended to the stochastic case, using planning-oriented criteria and comparing value iteration to RL with learning rates and greediness factors.
Feb 13, 2026cs.AI

Calculating Mutual Information between a Reward Maximizer and its Environment

An important question in the field of AI is the extent to which successful behaviour requires an internal representation of the world. In this work, we quantify the amount of information an optimal policy provides about the underlying environment. We consider a Controlled Markov Process (CMP) with nn states and mm actions, assuming a uniform prior over the space of possible transition dynamics. We prove that observing a deterministic policy that is optimal for any non-constant reward function then conveys exactly nlog⁡mn \log m bits of information about the environment. Specifically, we show that the mutual information between the environment and the optimal policy is nlog⁡mn \log m bits. This bound holds across a broad class of objectives, including finite-horizon, infinite-horizon discounted, and time-averaged reward maximization. These findings provide a precise information-theoretic lower bound on the ``implicit world model'' necessary for optimality.
Feb 3, 2026cs.LG

Reward Redistribution for CVaR MDPs using a Bellman Operator on L-infinity

Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire trajectories without admitting a recursive Bellman decomposition in the underlying Markov decision process. A classical resolution relies on state augmentation with a continuous variable. However, unless restricted to a specialized class of admissible value functions, this formulation induces sparse rewards and degenerate fixed points. In this work, we propose a novel formulation of the static CVaR objective based on augmentation. Our alternative approach leads to a Bellman operator with: (1) dense per-step rewards; (2) contracting properties on the full space of bounded value functions. Building on this theoretical foundation, we develop risk-averse value iteration and model-free Q-learning algorithms that rely on discretized augmented states. We further provide convergence guarantees and approximation error bounds due to discretization. Empirical results demonstrate that our algorithms successfully learn CVaR-sensitive policies and achieve effective performance-safety trade-offs.
Feb 2, 2026cs.LG

Data- and Variance-dependent Regret Bounds for Online Tabular MDPs

This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent regret bounds in the stochastic regime. We quantify MDP complexity using a first-order quantity and several new data-dependent measures for the adversarial regime, including a second-order quantity and a path-length measure, as well as variance-based measures for the stochastic regime. To adapt to these measures, we develop algorithms based on global optimization and policy optimization, both built on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with log-barrier regularization. For global optimization, our algorithms achieve first-order, second-order, and path-length regret bounds in the adversarial regime, and in the stochastic regime, they achieve a variance-aware gap-independent bound and a variance-aware gap-dependent bound that is polylogarithmic in the number of episodes. For policy optimization, our algorithms achieve the same data- and variance-dependent adaptivity, up to a factor of the episode horizon, by exploiting a new optimistic QQ-function estimator. Finally, we establish regret lower bounds in terms of data-dependent complexity measures for the adversarial regime and a variance measure for the stochastic regime, implying that the regret upper bounds achieved by the global-optimization approach are nearly optimal.
Nov 28, 2025cs.LG

Poincaré Meets Bellman: Revisable Memory, Operational Quotients, and Evidence-Supported Learning in Changing Environments

Memory consolidation determines both what a learner can do now and which changes remain implementable later. We develop a finite-model synthesis of operational state abstraction and optimal control under the stability-evidence-revision (SER) framework. ``Poincaré meets Bellman'' names two complementary roles: qualitative dynamics identifies reusable action-response structure, and dynamic programming prices acquisition, retention, reuse, merging, and forgetting. Recurrence enters separately through the timing and value of future demands. We distinguish active quotient merging from historical information erasure, characterize exact repair by zero-error functional coding and causal migration, and derive a Bellman recursion over the joint law of hidden state and complete deployed memory. A first-return model yields an explicit retention rule. Conditional results show how factor sharing avoids enumerating combinations and how independent informative observations improve identification, while leaving some zero-error evidence budgets unchanged. Finite enumerations verify the coding and retention calculations. The synthesis gives an exact benchmark for specified finite models, without claiming universal recurrence, bounded-memory open-ended learning, or tractable global planning.
Sep 24, 2025cs.LG

Beyond Slater's Condition in Online CMDPs with Stochastic and Adversarial Constraints

We study \emph{online episodic Constrained Markov Decision Processes} (CMDPs) under both stochastic and adversarial constraints. We provide a novel algorithm whose guarantees greatly improve those of the state-of-the-art best-of-both-worlds algorithm introduced by Stradi et al. (2025). In the stochastic regime, \emph{i.e.}, when the constraints are sampled from fixed but unknown distributions, our method achieves O~(T)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}) regret and constraint violation without relying on Slater's condition, thereby handling settings where no strictly feasible solution exists. Moreover, we provide guarantees on the stronger notion of \emph{positive} constraint violation, which does not allow to recover from large violation in the early episodes by playing strictly safe policies. In the adversarial regime, \emph{i.e.}, when the constraints may change arbitrarily between episodes, our algorithm ensures sublinear constraint violation without Slater's condition, and achieves sublinear αα-regret with respect to the \emph{unconstrained} optimum, where αα is a suitably defined multiplicative approximation factor. We further validate our results through synthetic experiments, showing the practical effectiveness of our algorithm.
Jun 10, 2025cs.LG

Learning The Minimum Action Distance

This paper presents a state representation framework for Markov decision processes (MDPs) that can be learned solely from state trajectories, requiring neither reward signals nor the actions executed by the agent. We propose learning the minimum action distance (MAD), defined as the minimum number of actions required to transition between states, as a fundamental metric that captures the underlying structure of an environment. MAD naturally enables critical downstream tasks such as goal-conditioned reinforcement learning and reward shaping by providing a dense, geometrically meaningful measure of progress. Our self-supervised learning approach constructs an embedding space where the distances between embedded state pairs correspond to their MAD, accommodating both symmetric and asymmetric approximations. We evaluate the framework on a comprehensive suite of environments with known MAD values, encompassing both deterministic and stochastic dynamics, as well as discrete and continuous state spaces, and environments with noisy observations. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed approach not only efficiently learns accurate MAD representations across these diverse settings but also significantly outperforms existing state representation methods in terms of representation quality.
May 17, 2025cs.LG

Adaptive Resolving Methods for Markov Decision Processes with Function Approximations

Learning the optimal policy for Markov decision process problems (MDPs) from samples is a fundamental problem in online and data-driven decision-making. Function approximations are usually deployed to handle large or infinite state-action space. In our work, we consider the MDP problems with function approximation and we develop a new algorithm to solve it efficiently. Our algorithm is based on a linear programming (LP) reformulation and repeatedly resolves the identified reduced linear system as new transition samples arrive. After the optimal basis is identified, we show that, after NN resolving rounds, the expected averaged iterate achieves an instance-dependent O~(Cinst/N)\widetilde O(C_{\mathrm{inst}}/N) objective shortfall and signed constraint residual. We separately account for the historical samples used for basis identification and the d2d_2 transition queries used in each resolving round, which yields the corresponding total transition-query complexity. We further complement our result with a \textit{robust} O(1/N)O(1/\sqrt{N}) bound that is independent of ΔΔ. In comparison to the guarantees established in the previous literature, our instance dependent guarantee is tighter when the underlying instance is favorable, and the numerical experiments also reveal the wide applications and efficient empirical performances of our algorithms.
Mar 24, 2025cs.LG

Reinforcement Learning in Switching Non-Stationary Markov Decision Processes: Algorithms and Convergence Analysis

We introduce the Switching Non-Stationary Markov Decision Process (SNS-MDP) framework, in which the environment transitions among a finite set of MDPs governed by a latent Markov chain while the agent observes only the external state. We show that the long-term effect of this switching is equivalent to stationary dynamics parameterized by the stationary distribution of the hidden Markov chain. For fixed policies, we derive a closed-form expression for the SNS value function and prove that standard temporal-difference (TD) learning converges to it almost surely despite persistent non-stationarity. We further establish that policy iteration converges to the optimal policy of the equivalent averaged environment, and prove that tabular Q-learning converges almost surely to the optimal Q-function. The framework is validated on a wireless communication network with Markovian channel noise, demonstrating its practical efficacy for decision-making in rapidly time-varying systems.
Sep 22, 2024stat.ML

Exploiting Exogenous Structure for Sample-Efficient Reinforcement Learning

We study a structured class of Markov Decision Processes, known as Exo-MDPs, in which the state space is partitioned into exogenous and endogenous components. Exogenous states evolve stochastically, independent of the agent's actions, while endogenous states evolve deterministically based on both state components and actions. Exo-MDPs capture many operations research settings, including inventory control, resource management, and ride-sharing. Our first contribution is structural: we establish a representational equivalence between discrete MDPs, Exo-MDPs, and discrete linear mixture MDPs. Our second contribution is statistical. We characterize the minimax regret of learning in Exo-MDPs when the effective dimension r is small relative to the endogenous state and action spaces. When the exogenous states are unobserved, we prove matching upper and lower regret bounds of order Θ(HrK)Θ(Hr \sqrt{K}) over KK episodes of horizon HH, where rr is the effective dimension of the Exo-MDP. When exogenous states are observed, the minimax regret improves to Θ(HrK)Θ(H\sqrt{ r K}), revealing a Θ(r)Θ(\sqrt{r}) statistical gap due to observation of the exogenous states. These results show that Exo-MDPs decouple sample complexity from action space and endogenous state space. We validate these insights with experiments on inventory control and resource allocation.
May 14, 2024stat.ML

Thompson Sampling for Infinite-Horizon Discounted Decision Processes

This paper develops a framework for learning in discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with Borel state and action spaces, whose rewards and transitions depend on an unknown parameter.To analyze sampling-based adaptive learning algorithms in this setting, we introduce a canonical probability space that explicitly incorporates sampled parameters into the history of the process. As a performance criterion, we adopt the per-period suboptimality gap used in discounted-MDP regret analysis and specialize it to our parametrized Bayesian setting. Since this quantity captures the remaining loss in future performance from the current period onward, we refer to it as residual regret. We use the expected residual regret to connect discounted-MDP regret analysis with asymptotic discount optimality from adaptive control and the temporal-difference error perspective from reinforcement learning. We then focus on Thompson sampling (TS) in discounted infinite-horizon MDPs. Under assumptions that extend those used in prior work on finite state and action spaces to the Borel setting, we show that the expected residual regret for TS converges to zero exponentially fast. We further show that, under mild conditions ensuring the existence of the relevant limits, the ample-path residual regret converges to zero almost surely and TS achieves complete learning.
Oct 11, 2023cs.LG

Bridging the Gap between Newton-Raphson Method and Regularized Policy Iteration

Regularization is a cornerstone of modern reinforcement learning. Regularized policy iteration (RPI) provides a fundamental scheme for solving regularized Markov decision processes (RMDPs), and the widely used soft actor-critic algorithm arises as a special case when the regularizer is Shannon entropy. Despite its empirical success, the theoretical underpinnings of RPI remain unclear. In this paper, we address this gap by proving that RPI is formally equivalent to the standard Newton-Raphson method applied to the Bellman equation smoothed by strongly convex regularizers. This equivalence enables a unified convergence analysis of existing methods and supports the development of accelerated algorithms. We show that RPI enjoys local quadratic convergence; notably, for Shannon entropy, the guarantee is dimension-free. We further study RPI with inexact policy evaluation, establishing its equivalence to an inexact Newton method in which each Newton step is solved via truncated iterations, and derive an asymptotic linear convergence rate of γMγ^{M}, where MM denotes the number of operator steps used in policy evaluation. Finally, motivated by higher-order Newton schemes, we propose a new algorithm for RMDPs that achieves third-order local convergence. Numerical experiments corroborate our theory and demonstrate the practical advantages of the proposed algorithm. Overall, our results advance the theoretical understanding of regularization in reinforcement learning and suggest new directions for efficient algorithm design.
Date pendingcs.RO

Optimization-Based Robust Permissive Synthesis for Interval MDPs

We present an optimization-based framework for robust permissive synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs). While robust IMDP controller synthesis typically yields a single policy and most permissive-synthesis methods assume exact transition models, we synthesize multi-strategies that retain multiple actions while guaranteeing satisfaction of probabilistic reachability or expected-reward specifications under all admissible transition probabilities. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that maximizes the number of enabled state--action pairs subject to robust Bellman constraints. We develop two encodings: a direct vertex-enumeration formulation and a dualization-based formulation that avoids explicit enumeration of uncertainty-polytope vertices and has size linear in the number of successor transitions. Experiments on four benchmark domains show that both encodings achieve the same optimal permissiveness and scale to IMDPs with hundreds of thousands of states. Compared with standard robust single-policy synthesis, the resulting multi-strategies retain substantially more action choices.