Overview

Markov decision processes describe how an agent chooses actions as a system changes state probabilistically and rewards accumulate over time. Dynamic programming methods such as value iteration and policy iteration use Bellman equations to plan, while reinforcement learning methods such as Q-learning, policy gradients, and posterior sampling learn when transition models are unknown. Current work extends these tools to settings with constraints, risk, partial observability, non-stationarity, and large or structured state spaces, using methods such as robust optimization, state abstraction, and function approximation. A central tension is obtaining reliable safety and performance guarantees while keeping learning and planning computationally and statistically efficient beyond small tabular problems.

Latest papers

159 papers30 papers in the last four weeks, up 150% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Apr 20, 2026

Physics-Informed Causal MDPs for Sequential Constraint Repair in Engineering Simulation Pipelines

Off-policy learning in constrained MDPs with large binary state spaces faces a fundamental tension: causal identification of transition dynamics requires structural assumptions, while sample-efficient policy learning requires state-space compression. We introduce PI-CMDP, a framework for CMDPs whose constraint dependencies form a layered DAG under a Lifecycle Ordering Assumption (LOA). We propose an Identify-Compress-Estimate pipeline: (i) Identify: LOA enables backdoor identification of causal edge weights for cross-layer pairs, with formal partial-identification bounds when LOA is violated; (ii) Compress: a Markov abstraction compresses state cardinality from 2^(WL) to (W+1)^L under layer-priority regularity and exchangeability; and (iii) Estimate: a physics-guided doubly-robust estimator remains unbiased and reduces the variance constant when the physics prior outperforms a learned model. We instantiate PI-CMDP on constraint repair in engineering simulation pipelines. On the TPS benchmark (4,206 episodes), PI-CMDP achieves 76.2% repair success rate with only 300 training episodes versus 70.8% for the strongest baseline (+5.4 pp), narrowing to +2.8 pp (83.4% vs. 80.6%) in the full-data regime, while substantially reducing cascade failure rates. All improvements are consistent across 5 independent seeds (paired t-test p < 0.02).
Apr 19, 2026

Beyond the Bellman Fixed Point: Geometry and Fast Policy Identification in Value Iteration

Q-value iteration (Q-VI) is usually analyzed through the γγ-contraction of the Bellman operator. This argument proves convergence to Q∗Q^*, but it gives only a coarse account of when the induced greedy policy becomes optimal. We study discounted Q-VI as a switching system and focus on the practically optimal solution set (POSS), the set of QQ-functions whose tie-broken greedy policies are optimal. The main result shows that Q-VI reaches the optimal action class in finite time by entering an invariant tube around X1=Q∗+span⁡(1)\mathcal X_1=Q^*+\operatorname{span}(\mathbf 1), which is contained in the POSS. For every ε>0\varepsilon>0, the distance to X1\mathcal X_1 satisfies an exponential bound with rate (ρˉ+ε)k(\barρ+\varepsilon)^k, where ρˉ\barρ is the joint spectral radius of the projected switching family restricted to directions transverse to X1\mathcal X_1. When ρˉ<γ\barρ<γ, this transverse convergence is faster than the classical contraction rate. The analysis separates fast policy identification from the subsequent convergence to Q∗Q^*, which may still be governed by the all-ones mode. We also give spectral and graph-theoretic conditions under which the strict inequality ρˉ<γ\barρ<γ holds or fails.
Apr 17, 2026

DARLING: Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning with Non-Stationary Guarantees

We study model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) without prior knowledge of the non-stationarity. We focus on the piecewise stationary (PS) setting, where both rewards and transition dynamics can change at unknown times. We first revisit existing state-of-the-art approaches and identify theoretical and practical limitations that change the current landscape of performance guarantees. To characterize the difficulty of the problem, we establish the first minimax lower bounds for PS-RL in tabular and linear MDPs. We then introduce Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning (DARLING), a modular wrapper for PS-RL that applies to both tabular and linear MDPs, without knowledge of the changes. In tabular MDPs, under change-point separability and reachability conditions, DARLING improves the best known dynamic regret bounds and matches our minimax lower bound. In linear MDPs, DARLING matches the minimax lower bound when the relevant reachability parameters are known, and our analysis clarifies the structural obstacles that distinguish this setting from the tabular case. Finally, through extensive experimentation across diverse non-stationary benchmarks, we show that DARLING consistently surpasses the state-of-the-art methods.
Apr 17, 2026

Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model

We study the sample complexity of learning an εε-optimal policy in the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. We first derive sample complexity bounds when the learner has access to a generative model. We show that there exists a worst-case SSP instance with SS states, AA actions, minimum cost cmin⁡c_{\min}, and maximum expected cost of the optimal policy over all states B⋆B_{\star}, where any algorithm requires at least Ω(SAB⋆3/(cmin⁡ε2))Ω(SAB_{\star}^3/(c_{\min}ε^2)) samples to return an εε-optimal policy with high probability. Surprisingly, this implies that whenever cmin⁡=0c_{\min} = 0 an SSP problem may not be learnable, thus revealing that learning in SSPs is strictly harder than in the finite-horizon and discounted settings. We complement this lower bound with an algorithm that matches it, up to logarithmic factors, in the general case, and an algorithm that matches it up to logarithmic factors even when cmin⁡=0c_{\min} = 0, but only under the condition that the optimal policy has a bounded hitting time to the goal state.
Apr 16, 2026

Blazing the trails before beating the path: Sample-efficient Monte-Carlo planning

You are a robot and you live in a Markov decision process (MDP) with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. You got brains and so you plan before you act. Luckily, your roboparents equipped you with a generative model to do some Monte-Carlo planning. The world is waiting for you and you have no time to waste. You want your planning to be efficient. Sample-efficient. Indeed, you want to exploit the possible structure of the MDP by exploring only a subset of states reachable by following near-optimal policies. You want guarantees on sample complexity that depend on a measure of the quantity of near-optimal states. You want something, that is an extension of Monte-Carlo sampling (for estimating an expectation) to problems that alternate maximization (over actions) and expectation (over next states). But you do not want to StOP with exponential running time, you want something simple to implement and computationally efficient. You want it all and you want it now. You want TrailBlazer.
Apr 13, 2026

Offline-Online Reinforcement Learning for Linear Mixture MDPs

We study offline-online reinforcement learning in linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs) under environment shift. In the offline phase, data are collected by an unknown behavior policy and may come from a mismatched environment, while in the online phase the learner interacts with the target environment. We propose an algorithm that adaptively leverages offline data. When the offline data are informative, either due to sufficient coverage or small environment shift, the algorithm provably improves over purely online learning. When the offline data are uninformative, it safely ignores them and matches the online-only performance. We establish regret upper bounds that explicitly characterize when offline data are beneficial, together with nearly matching lower bounds. Numerical experiments further corroborate our theoretical findings.
Apr 11, 2026

When Can You Poison Rewards? A Tight Characterization of Reward Poisoning in Linear MDPs

We study reward poisoning attacks in reinforcement learning (RL), where an adversary manipulates rewards within constrained budgets to force the target RL agent to adopt a policy that aligns with the attacker's objectives. Prior works on reward poisoning mainly focused on sufficient conditions to design a successful attacker, while only a few studies discussed the infeasibility of targeted attacks. This paper provides the first precise necessity and sufficiency characterization of the attackability of a linear MDP under reward poisoning attacks. Our characterization draws a bright line between the vulnerable RL instances, and the intrinsically robust ones which cannot be attacked without large costs even running vanilla non-robust RL algorithms. Our theory extends beyond linear MDPs -- by approximating deep RL environments as linear MDPs, we show that our theoretical framework effectively distinguishes the attackability and efficiently attacks the vulnerable ones, demonstrating both the theoretical and practical significance of our characterization.
Apr 8, 2026

Contraction-Aligned Analysis of Soft Bellman Residual Minimization with Weighted Lp-Norm for Markov Decision Problem

The problem of solving Markov decision processes under function approximation remains a fundamental challenge, even under linear function approximation settings. A key difficulty arises from a geometric mismatch: while the Bellman optimality operator is contractive in the Linfty-norm, commonly used objectives such as projected value iteration and Bellman residual minimization rely on L2-based formulations. To enable gradient-based optimization, we consider a soft formulation of Bellman residual minimization and extend it to a generalized weighted Lp -norm. We show that this formulation aligns the optimization objective with the contraction geometry of the Bellman operator as p increases, and derive corresponding performance error bounds. Our analysis provides a principled connection between residual minimization and Bellman contraction, leading to improved control of error propagation while remaining compatible with gradient-based optimization.
Apr 7, 2026

Value Mirror Descent for Reinforcement Learning

Value iteration-type methods have been extensively studied for computing a nearly optimal value function in reinforcement learning (RL). Under a generative sampling model, these methods can achieve sharper sample complexity than policy optimization approaches, particularly in their dependence on the discount factor. In practice, they are often employed for offline training. In this paper, we consider discounted Markov decision processes with state space S, action space A, discount factor γ∈(0,1)γ\in(0,1) and costs in [0,1][0,1]. We introduce a novel value optimization method, termed value mirror descent (VMD), which integrates mirror descent from convex optimization into the classical value iteration framework. In the deterministic setting with known transition kernels, we show that VMD converges linearly. For the stochastic setting with a generative model, we develop a stochastic variant, SVMD, which incorporates variance reduction commonly used in stochastic value iteration-type methods. For RL problems with general convex regularizers, SVMD attains a near-optimal sample complexity of O~(∣S∣∣A∣(1−γ)−3ε−2)\tilde{O}(|S||A|(1-γ)^{-3}ε^{-2}). Moreover, we establish that the Bregman divergence between the generated and optimal policies remains bounded throughout the iterations, even under the presence of model misspecification. This property is absent in existing stochastic value iteration-type methods but is important for enabling effective online (continual) learning following offline training. Under a strongly convex regularizer, SVMD achieves sample complexity of O~(∣S∣∣A∣(1−γ)−5ε−1)\tilde{O}(|S||A|(1-γ)^{-5}ε^{-1}), improving performance in the high-accuracy regime. Furthermore, we prove convergence of the generated policy to the optimal policy. Overall, the proposed method, its analysis, and the resulting guarantees, constitute new contributions to the RL and optimization literature.
Apr 6, 2026

Nash Approximation Gap in Truncated Infinite-horizon Partially Observable Markov Games

Partially Observable Markov Games (POMGs) provide a general framework for modeling multi-agent sequential decision-making under asymmetric information. A common approach is to reformulate a POMG as a fully observable Markov game over belief states, where the state is the conditional distribution of the system state and agents' private information given common information, and actions correspond to mappings (prescriptions) from private information to actions. However, this reformulation is intractable in infinite-horizon settings, as both the belief state and action spaces grow with the accumulation of information over time. We propose a finite-memory truncation framework that approximates infinite-horizon POMGs by a finite-state, finite-action Markov game, where agents condition decisions only on finite windows of common and private information. Under suitable filter stability (forgetting) conditions, we show that any Nash equilibrium of the truncated game is an ε\varepsilon-Nash equilibrium of the original POMG, where ε→0\varepsilon \to 0 as the truncation length increases.
Apr 4, 2026

Delayed homomorphic reinforcement learning for environments with delayed feedback

Reinforcement learning in real-world systems often involves delayed feedback, which breaks the Markov assumption and impedes both learning and control. Canonical augmentation-based approaches cause state-space explosion, which imposes a severe sample-complexity burden. Despite recent progress, state-of-the-art augmentation-based baselines either mainly alleviate the burden on the critic or rely on non-unified treatments for the actor and critic. In this study, we propose delayed homomorphic reinforcement learning (DHRL), a framework grounded in MDP homomorphisms that defines a belief-equivalence relation over the augmented state space to collapse control-redundant augmented states. In principle, this yields exact abstraction under deterministic dynamics and approximate abstraction under stochastic dynamics, enabling both the actor and critic to benefit from a structured abstraction mechanism. In finite domains, exact abstraction preserves optimality and recovers the delay-free sample-complexity order, whereas approximate abstraction admits a value-loss bound on the resulting policy. For continuous domains, we introduce deep delayed homomorphic policy gradient (D2^2HPG), a deep actor-critic instantiation of the DHRL framework. Experiments on continuous-control tasks in MuJoCo show that D2^2HPG outperforms strong augmentation-based baselines.
Apr 4, 2026

Multi-Robot Multi-Queue Control via Exhaustive Assignment Actor-Critic Learning

We study online task allocation for multi-robot, multi-queue systems with asymmetric stochastic arrivals and switching delays. We formulate the problem in discrete time: each location can host at most one robot per slot, servicing a task consumes one slot, switching between locations incurs a one-slot travel delay, and arrivals at locations are independent Bernoulli processes with heterogeneous rates. Building on our previous structural result that optimal policies are of exhaustive type, we formulate a discounted-cost Markov decision process and develop an exhaustive-assignment actor-critic policy architecture that enforces exhaustive service by construction and learns only the next-queue allocation for idle robots. Unlike the exhaustive-serve-longest (ESL) queue rule, whose optimality is known only under symmetry, the proposed policy adapts to asymmetry in arrival rates. Across different server-location ratios, loads, and asymmetric arrival profiles, the proposed policy consistently achieves lower discounted holding cost and smaller mean queue length than the ESL baseline, while remaining near-optimal on instances where an optimal benchmark is available. These results show that structure-aware actor-critic methods provide an effective approach for real-time multi-robot scheduling.
Apr 2, 2026

Computing the Exact Pareto Front in Average-Cost Multi-Objective Markov Decision Processes

Many communication and control problems are cast as multi-objective Markov decision processes (MOMDPs). The complete solution to an MOMDP is the Pareto front. Much of the literature approximates this front via scalarization into single-objective MDPs. Recent work has begun to characterize the full front in discounted or simple bi-objective settings by exploiting its geometry. In this work, we characterize the exact front in average-cost MOMDPs. We show that the front is a continuous, piecewise-linear surface lying on the boundary of a convex polytope. Each vertex corresponds to a deterministic policy, and adjacent vertices differ in exactly one state. Each edge is realized as a convex combination of the policies at its endpoints, with the mixing coefficient given in closed form. We apply these results to a remote state estimation problem, where each vertex on the front corresponds to a threshold policy. The exact Pareto front and solutions to certain non-convex MDPs can be obtained without explicitly solving any MDP.
Apr 2, 2026

Efficient Constraint Generation for Stochastic Shortest Path Problems

Stochastic Shortest Path problems (SSPs) are traditionally solved by computing each state's cost-to-go by applying Bellman backups. A Bellman backup updates a state's cost-to-go by iterating through every applicable action, computing the cost-to-go after applying each one, and selecting a minimal action's cost-to-go. State-of-the-art algorithms use heuristic functions; these give an initial estimate of costs-to-go, and lets the algorithm apply Bellman backups only to promising states, determined by low estimated costs-to-go. However, each Bellman backup still considers all applicable actions, even if the heuristic tells us that some of these actions are too expensive, with the effect that such algorithms waste time on unhelpful actions. To address this gap we present a technique that uses the heuristic to avoid expensive actions, by reframing heuristic search in terms of linear programming and introducing an efficient implementation of constraint generation for SSPs. We present CG-iLAO*, a new algorithm that adapts iLAO* with our novel technique, and considers only 40% of iLAO*'s actions on many problems, and as few as 1% on some. Consequently, CG-iLAO* computes on average 3.5x fewer costs-to-go for actions than the state-of-the-art iLAO* and LRTDP, enabling it to solve problems faster an average of 2.8x and 3.7x faster, respectively.
Mar 29, 2026

Near-Optimal Primal-Dual Algorithm for Learning Linear Mixture CMDPs with Adversarial Rewards

We study safe reinforcement learning in finite-horizon linear mixture constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) with adversarial rewards under full-information feedback and an unknown transition kernel. We propose a primal-dual policy optimization algorithm that achieves regret and constraint violation bounds of O~(d2H3K)\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d^2 H^3 K}) under mild conditions, where dd is the feature dimension, HH is the horizon, and KK is the number of episodes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first provably efficient algorithm for linear mixture CMDPs with adversarial rewards. In particular, our regret bound is near-optimal, matching the known minimax lower bound up to logarithmic factors. The key idea is to introduce a regularized dual update that enables a drift-based analysis. This step is essential, as strong duality-based analysis cannot be directly applied when reward functions change across episodes. In addition, we extend weighted ridge regression-based parameter estimation to the constrained setting, allowing us to construct tighter confidence intervals that are crucial for deriving the near-optimal regret bound.
Mar 27, 2026

Beyond Freshness and Semantics: A Coupon-Collector Framework for Effective Status Updates

For status update systems operating over unreliable energy-constrained wireless channels, we address Weaver's long-standing Level-C question: do my packets actually improve the plant's behavior? Each fresh sample carries a stochastic expiration time -- governed by the plant's instability dynamics -- after which the information becomes useless for control. Casting the problem as a coupon-collector variant with expiring coupons, we (i) formulate a two-dimensional average-reward MDP, (ii) prove that the optimal schedule is doubly thresholded in the receiver's freshness timer and the sender's stored lifetime, (iii) derive a closed-form policy for deterministic lifetimes, and (iv) design a Structure-Aware Q-learning algorithm (SAQ) that learns the optimal policy without knowing the channel success probability or lifetime distribution. Simulations validate our theoretical predictions: SAQ matches optimal Value Iteration performance while converging significantly faster than baseline Q-learning, and expiration-aware scheduling achieves up to 50% higher reward than age-based baselines by adapting transmissions to state-dependent urgency -- thereby delivering Level-C effectiveness under tight resource constraints.
Mar 18, 2026

Operator-Theoretic Foundations and Policy Gradient Methods for General MDPs with Unbounded Costs

Markov decision processes (MDPs) is viewed as an optimization of an objective function over certain linear operators over general function spaces. A new existence result is established for the existence of optimal policies in general MDPs, which differs from the existence result derived previously in the literature. Using the well-established perturbation theory of linear operators, policy difference lemma is established for general MDPs and the Gauteaux derivative of the objective function as a function of the policy operator is derived. By upper bounding the policy difference via the theory of integral probability metric, a new majorization-minimization type policy gradient algorithm for general MDPs is derived. This leads to generalization of many well-known algorithms in reinforcement learning to cases with general state and action spaces. Further, by taking the integral probability metric as maximum mean discrepancy, a low-complexity policy gradient algorithm is derived for finite MDPs. The new algorithm, called MM-RKHS, appears to be superior to PPO algorithm due to low computational complexity, low sample complexity, and faster convergence.
Mar 13, 2026

Weakly Time-Coupled Approximation of Markov Decision Processes

Finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with high-dimensional exogenous uncertainty and endogenous states arise in operations and finance, including the valuation and exercise of Bermudan and real options, but face a scalability barrier as computational complexity grows with the horizon. A common approximation represents the value function using basis functions, but methods for fitting weights treat cross-stage optimization differently. Least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) fits weights via backward recursion and regression, avoiding joint optimization but accumulating error over the horizon. Approximate linear programming (ALP) and pathwise optimization (PO) jointly fit weights to produce upper bounds, but temporal coupling causes computational complexity to grow with the horizon. We show this coupling is an artifact of the approximation architecture, and develop a weakly time-coupled approximation (WTCA) where cross-stage dependence is independent of horizon. For any fixed basis function set, the WTCA upper bound is tighter than that of ALP and looser than that of PO, and converges to the optimal policy value as the basis family expands. We extend parallel deterministic block coordinate descent to the stochastic MDP setting exploiting weak temporal coupling. Applied to WTCA, weak coupling yields computational complexity independent of the horizon. Within equal time budget, solving WTCA accommodates more exogenous samples or basis functions than PO, yielding tighter bounds despite PO being tighter for fixed samples and basis functions. On Bermudan option and ethanol production instances, WTCA produces tighter upper bounds than PO and LSM in every instance tested, with near-optimal policies at longer horizons.
Mar 10, 2026

Impact of Markov Decision Process Design on Sim-to-Real Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated strong potential for industrial process control, yet policies trained in simulation often suffer from a significant sim-to-real gap when deployed on physical hardware. This work systematically analyzes how core Markov Decision Process (MDP) design choices -- state composition, target inclusion, reward formulation, termination criteria, and environment dynamics models -- affect this transfer. Using a color mixing task, we evaluate different MDP configurations and mixing dynamics across simulation and real-world experiments. We validate our findings on physical hardware, demonstrating that physics-based dynamics models achieve up to 50% real-world success under strict precision constraints where simplified models fail entirely. Our results provide practical MDP design guidelines for deploying RL in industrial process control.
Mar 8, 2026

Relating Reinforcement Learning to Dynamic Programming-Based Planning

This paper bridges some of the gap between optimal planning and reinforcement learning (RL), both of which share roots in dynamic programming applied to sequential decision making or optimal control. Whereas planning typically favors deterministic models, goal termination, and cost minimization, RL tends to favor stochastic models, infinite-horizon discounting, and reward maximization in addition to learning-related parameters such as the learning rate and greediness factor. A derandomized version of RL is developed, analyzed, and implemented to yield performance comparisons with value iteration and Dijkstra's algorithm using simple planning models. Next, mathematical analysis shows: 1) conditions under which cost minimization and reward maximization are equivalent, 2) conditions for equivalence of single-shot goal termination and infinite-horizon episodic learning, and 3) conditions under which discounting causes goal achievement to fail. The paper then advocates for defining and optimizing truecost, rather than inserting arbitrary parameters to guide operations. Performance studies are then extended to the stochastic case, using planning-oriented criteria and comparing value iteration to RL with learning rates and greediness factors.
Mar 6, 2026

Joint MDPs and Reinforcement Learning in Coupled-Dynamics Environments

Many distributional quantities in reinforcement learning are intrinsically joint across actions, including distributions of gaps and probabilities of superiority. However, the classical Markov decision process (MDP) formalism specifies only marginal laws and leaves the joint law of counterfactual one-step outcomes across multiple possible actions at a state unspecified. We study coupled-dynamics environments with a multi-action generative interface which can sample counterfactual one-step outcomes for multiple actions under shared exogenous randomness. We propose joint MDPs (JMDPs) as a formalism for such environments by augmenting an MDP with a multi-action sample transition model which specifies a coupling of one-step counterfactual outcomes, while preserving standard MDP interaction as marginal observations. We adopt and formalize a one-step coupling regime where dependence across actions is confined to immediate counterfactual outcomes at the queried state. In this regime, we derive Bellman operators for nnth-order return moments, providing dynamic programming and incremental algorithms with convergence guarantees.
Mar 3, 2026

Learning in Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Dynamics

Reinforcement learning algorithms are typically designed for generic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where any state-action pair can lead to an arbitrary transition distribution. In many practical systems, however, only a subset of the state variables is directly influenced by the agent's actions, while the remaining components evolve according to exogenous dynamics and account for most of the stochasticity. In this work, we study a structured class of MDPs characterized by exogenous state components whose transitions are independent of the agent's actions. We show that exploiting this structure yields significantly improved learning guarantees, with only the size of the exogenous state space appearing in the leading terms of the regret bounds. We further establish a matching lower bound, showing that this dependence is information-theoretically optimal. Finally, we empirically validate our approach across classical toy settings and real-world-inspired environments, demonstrating substantial gains in sample efficiency compared to standard reinforcement learning methods.
Feb 23, 2026

κκ-Explorer: Minimax Active Model Estimation in MDPs

Accurately estimating the transition dynamics of an unknown Markov decision process (MDP) is a central problem in reinforcement learning. The accuracy of overall model estimation, however, depends on both the stochasticity of the transitions given state--action pairs, what we call the intrinsic (statistical) complexity of each pair, and the visitation frequency of each state--action pair, dictated extrinsically by the exploration policy and its induced occupancy measure. We propose κκ-Explorer, an active exploration algorithm that constructs an exploration reward for each state--action pair, using a κκ-powered ratio of estimated intrinsic complexity to extrinsic visitation frequency of each pair. By planning with these rewards, κκ-Explorer adapts its extrinsic visitation frequency to the intrinsic complexity of transitions. More specifically, we show that κκ-Explorer optimizes a surrogate objective function which bounds the minimax estimation error. Furthermore, we establish a surrogate objective gap of O~(t−1/3)\widetilde{O}(t^{-1/3}), yielding a finite-sample guarantee for sufficiently large κκ. Finally, we extend the framework to alternative estimation losses and objectives beyond the minimax setting.
Feb 19, 2026

MDP Planning as Policy Inference

We formulate episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. The primary contribution is conceptual: the policy itself is treated as the latent variable, and expected return defines an unnormalized posterior density over policies. This preserves the standard expected-return objective, in contrast to trajectory-centric planning-as-inference formulations that introduce auxiliary optimality variables and to entropy-regularized policy optimization methods that solve a different objective. In the exact formulation, the posterior over deterministic policies induces what we define here as an optimal stochastic policy under preference uncertainty, namely the stochastic policy induced by that posterior. For discrete MDPs with stochastic transitions, we study variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) as one approximate inference method for this posterior, introducing policy consistency under state revisitation and coupled transition randomness across particles. Experiments on grid worlds, Blackjack, Triangle Tireworld, and Academic Advising examine the consequences of inference over policies and compare its induced behavior with entropy-regularized policy optimization. The results support the view that MDP planning can be naturally cast as Bayesian inference over policies.
Feb 13, 2026

Calculating Mutual Information between a Reward Maximizer and its Environment

An important question in the field of AI is the extent to which successful behaviour requires an internal representation of the world. In this work, we quantify the amount of information an optimal policy provides about the underlying environment. We consider a Controlled Markov Process (CMP) with nn states and mm actions, assuming a uniform prior over the space of possible transition dynamics. We prove that observing a deterministic policy that is optimal for any non-constant reward function then conveys exactly nlog⁡mn \log m bits of information about the environment. Specifically, we show that the mutual information between the environment and the optimal policy is nlog⁡mn \log m bits. This bound holds across a broad class of objectives, including finite-horizon, infinite-horizon discounted, and time-averaged reward maximization. These findings provide a precise information-theoretic lower bound on the ``implicit world model'' necessary for optimality.
Feb 3, 2026

Reward Redistribution for CVaR MDPs using a Bellman Operator on L-infinity

Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire trajectories without admitting a recursive Bellman decomposition in the underlying Markov decision process. A classical resolution relies on state augmentation with a continuous variable. However, unless restricted to a specialized class of admissible value functions, this formulation induces sparse rewards and degenerate fixed points. In this work, we propose a novel formulation of the static CVaR objective based on augmentation. Our alternative approach leads to a Bellman operator with: (1) dense per-step rewards; (2) contracting properties on the full space of bounded value functions. Building on this theoretical foundation, we develop risk-averse value iteration and model-free Q-learning algorithms that rely on discretized augmented states. We further provide convergence guarantees and approximation error bounds due to discretization. Empirical results demonstrate that our algorithms successfully learn CVaR-sensitive policies and achieve effective performance-safety trade-offs.
Feb 2, 2026

Data- and Variance-dependent Regret Bounds for Online Tabular MDPs

This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent regret bounds in the stochastic regime. We quantify MDP complexity using a first-order quantity and several new data-dependent measures for the adversarial regime, including a second-order quantity and a path-length measure, as well as variance-based measures for the stochastic regime. To adapt to these measures, we develop algorithms based on global optimization and policy optimization, both built on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with log-barrier regularization. For global optimization, our algorithms achieve first-order, second-order, and path-length regret bounds in the adversarial regime, and in the stochastic regime, they achieve a variance-aware gap-independent bound and a variance-aware gap-dependent bound that is polylogarithmic in the number of episodes. For policy optimization, our algorithms achieve the same data- and variance-dependent adaptivity, up to a factor of the episode horizon, by exploiting a new optimistic QQ-function estimator. Finally, we establish regret lower bounds in terms of data-dependent complexity measures for the adversarial regime and a variance measure for the stochastic regime, implying that the regret upper bounds achieved by the global-optimization approach are nearly optimal.
Nov 28, 2025

Poincaré Meets Bellman: Revisable Memory, Operational Quotients, and Evidence-Supported Learning in Changing Environments

Memory consolidation determines both what a learner can do now and which changes remain implementable later. We develop a finite-model synthesis of operational state abstraction and optimal control under the stability-evidence-revision (SER) framework. ``Poincaré meets Bellman'' names two complementary roles: qualitative dynamics identifies reusable action-response structure, and dynamic programming prices acquisition, retention, reuse, merging, and forgetting. Recurrence enters separately through the timing and value of future demands. We distinguish active quotient merging from historical information erasure, characterize exact repair by zero-error functional coding and causal migration, and derive a Bellman recursion over the joint law of hidden state and complete deployed memory. A first-return model yields an explicit retention rule. Conditional results show how factor sharing avoids enumerating combinations and how independent informative observations improve identification, while leaving some zero-error evidence budgets unchanged. Finite enumerations verify the coding and retention calculations. The synthesis gives an exact benchmark for specified finite models, without claiming universal recurrence, bounded-memory open-ended learning, or tractable global planning.
Oct 22, 2025

On the Hardness of Reinforcement Learning with Transition Look-Ahead

We study reinforcement learning (RL) with transition look-ahead, where the agent may observe which states would be visited upon playing any sequence of ℓ\ell actions before deciding its course of action. While such predictive information can drastically improve the achievable performance, we show that using this information optimally comes at a potentially prohibitive computational cost. Specifically, we prove that optimal planning with one-step look-ahead (ℓ=1\ell=1) can be solved in polynomial time through a novel linear programming formulation. In contrast, for ℓ≥2\ell \geq 2, the problem becomes NP-hard. Our results delineate a precise boundary between tractable and intractable cases for the problem of planning with transition look-ahead in reinforcement learning.
Oct 3, 2025

Optimization-Based Robust Permissive Synthesis for Interval MDPs

We present an optimization-based framework for robust permissive synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs). While robust IMDP controller synthesis typically yields a single policy and most permissive-synthesis methods assume exact transition models, we synthesize multi-strategies that retain multiple actions while guaranteeing satisfaction of probabilistic reachability or expected-reward specifications under all admissible transition probabilities. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that maximizes the number of enabled state--action pairs subject to robust Bellman constraints. We develop two encodings: a direct vertex-enumeration formulation and a dualization-based formulation that avoids explicit enumeration of uncertainty-polytope vertices and has size linear in the number of successor transitions. Experiments on four benchmark domains show that both encodings achieve the same optimal permissiveness and scale to IMDPs with hundreds of thousands of states. Compared with standard robust single-policy synthesis, the resulting multi-strategies retain substantially more action choices.