Multifidelity Modeling

Surrogate modeling is an essential data-driven technique for quantifying relationships between input variables and system responses in manufacturing and engineering systems. Two major challenges limit its effectiveness: (1) large data requirements for learning complex nonlinear relationships, and (2) heterogeneous data collected from sources with varying fidelity levels. Multi-task learning (MTL) addresses the first challenge by enabling information sharing across related processes, while multi-fidelity modeling addresses the second by accounting for fidelity-dependent uncertainty. However, existing approaches typically address these challenges separately, and no unified framework simultaneously leverages inter-task similarity and fidelity-dependent data characteristics. This paper develops a novel hierarchical multi-task multi-fidelity (H-MT-MF) framework for Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling. The proposed framework decomposes each task's response into a task-specific global trend and a residual local variability component that is jointly learned across tasks using a hierarchical Bayesian formulation. The framework accommodates an arbitrary number of tasks, design points, and fidelity levels while providing predictive uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method using a 1D synthetic example and a real-world engine surface shape prediction case study. Compared to (1) a state-of-the-art MTL model that does not account for fidelity information and (2) a stochastic kriging model that learns tasks independently, the proposed approach improves prediction accuracy by up to 19% and 23%, respectively. The H-MT-MF framework provides a general and extensible solution for surrogate modeling in manufacturing systems characterized by heterogeneous data sources.

In complex real-world settings, optimization is challenged by the presence of diverse models of differing fidelity. In many optimization problems, a single model is treated as the most accurate representation of the underlying system, while other models are evaluated primarily by their agreement with this presumed most accurate model. Yet in real-world applications, model accuracy is rarely known a priori and assuming a single most accurate model can be misleading. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a flexible set-based optimization methodology called Set-Based Optimization with Multiple Models (S-BOMM) that works with multiple models without the assumption of a most accurate high-fidelity model. Unlike traditional optimization approaches that focus on finding an optimal solution according to the high-fidelity model, our methodology utilizes consistency between models to identify good solutions across multiple models. A probabilistic analysis of the consistency method is provided that bounds the likelihood of the methodology producing correct or incorrect results. Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of S-BOMM on test problems. By focusing on the consistency across models rather than relying on a single best solution, this set-based approach offers a practical alternative to optimization problems where multiple models must be considered without assuming a single most accurate high-fidelity model.

In engineering design and scientific computing, computational cost and predictive accuracy are intrinsically coupled. High-fidelity simulations provide accurate predictions but at substantial computational costs, while lower-fidelity approximations offer efficiency at the expense of accuracy. Multi-fidelity surrogate modelling addresses this trade-off by combining abundant low-fidelity data with sparse high-fidelity observations. However, existing methods rely on global correlation assumptions that can often fail in practice to capture how fidelity relationships vary across the input space, leading to poor performance, particularly under tight budget constraints. We introduce MAST, a method that blends corrected low-fidelity observations with high-fidelity predictions, trusting high-fidelity near observed samples and relying on corrected low-fidelity elsewhere. MAST achieves this through explicit discrepancy modelling and distance-based weighting with closed-form variance propagation, producing a single heteroscedastic Gaussian process. Across multi-fidelity synthetic benchmarks, MAST shows a marked improvement over the current state-of-the-art techniques. Crucially, MAST maintains robust performance across varying total budget and fidelity gaps, conditions under which competing methods exhibit significant degradation or unstable behaviour. More broadly, MAST provides a spatially adaptive framework for multi-fidelity Gaussian-process modelling, in which the contribution of low-fidelity information is governed by its proximity to high-fidelity calibration data, opening a new direction for more reliable surrogate construction under sparse and budget-constrained settings.

High-fidelity (HF) simulations of parametric partial differential equations are expensive, whereas low-fidelity (LF) models such as coarse grids or simplified physics are cheap but biased. Multi-fidelity physics-informed neural networks combine the two, yet it remains unclear when cheap physics actually reduces the number of HF solves, and existing methods silently fail when the LF model is misleading and offer no guaranteed uncertainty. We answer the first question with a sharp sample-complexity bound: learning the HF field through its discrepancy from the LF model reduces the number of HF samples needed for accuracy $\varepsilon$ by the factor $κ^{2γ}$, where $κ$ is the ratio of the complexity of the discrepancy to that of the HF field and $γ$ is the effective-dimension exponent, and we confirm the predicted scaling with exact risk computations in a kernel model. Guided by the analysis, we propose GaMF-PINN, a gated multi-fidelity PINN that learns where to trust the LF model and falls back to physics-only learning where it does not, together with a function-level conformal procedure that returns uncertainty bands containing the entire HF solution with probability at least $1-α$ in finite samples. We release MFPDE-Bench, an open benchmark of paired LF/HF solvers for four parametric PDEs with coarse-grid and simplified-physics LF models. Across MFPDE-Bench, GaMF-PINN reaches the accuracy of a standard HF-PINN with up to 8x fewer HF solves, remains robust when the LF model is deliberately corrupted, and attains the nominal coverage where Bayesian PINNs and deep ensembles under-cover.

Multi-fidelity (MF) regression often operates in regimes of extreme data imbalance, where the commonly-used Gaussian-process (GP) surrogates struggle with cubic scaling costs and overfit to sparse high-fidelity observations, limiting efficiency and generalization in real-world applications. We introduce FIRE, a training-free MF framework that couples tabular foundation models (TFMs) to perform zero-shot in-context Bayesian inference via a high-fidelity correction model conditioned on the low-fidelity model's posterior predictive distributions. This cross-fidelity information transfer via distributional summaries captures heteroscedastic errors, enabling robust residual learning without model retraining. Across 31 benchmark problems spanning synthetic and real-world tasks (e.g., DrivAerNet, LCBench), FIRE delivers a stronger performance-time trade-off than seven state-of-the-art GP-based or deep learning MF regression methods, ranking highest in accuracy and uncertainty quantification with runtime advantages. Limitations include context window constraints and dependence on the quality of the pre-trained TFM's.

We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional parameter estimation methods rely on repeated simulations of potentially expensive forward models to determine the posterior distribution of the parameter values, which may result in computationally intractable workflows. Furthermore, methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) necessitate rerunning the entire algorithm for each new data observation, further increasing the computational burden. Hence, we propose a novel method for efficiently obtaining posterior distributions of parameter estimates for high-fidelity models given data observations of interest. The method first constructs a low-fidelity, conditional generative model capable of amortized Bayesian inference and hence rapid posterior density approximation over a wide-range of data observations. When higher accuracy is needed for a specific data observation, the method employs adaptive refinement of the density approximation. It uses outputs from the low-fidelity generative model to refine the parameter sampling space, ensuring efficient use of the computationally expensive high-fidelity solver. Subsequently, a high-fidelity, unconditional generative model is trained to achieve greater accuracy in the target posterior distribution. Both low- and high- fidelity generative models enable efficient sampling from the target posterior and do not require repeated simulation of the high-fidelity forward model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several numerical examples, including cases with multi-modal densities, as well as an application in plasma physics for a runaway electron simulation model.