Nonlinear System Identification

Networks of modern industrial systems are increasingly monitored by distributed sensors, where each system comprises multiple subsystems that generate high-dimensional time-series. These subsystems are often interdependent, making it important to understand how temporal patterns observed at one subsystem relate to those observed across others. This problem is particularly challenging in decentralized settings where raw measurements cannot be shared, and client observations are heterogeneous. Moreover, in practice, each subsystem (client) operates a fixed, proprietary model that cannot be modified or retrained, limiting the applicability of existing approaches. Separately, nonlinear dynamics make cross-client temporal interdependencies difficult to characterize, as they are embedded implicitly within nonlinear state-transition functions. This paper presents a vertical federated learning framework for learning one-step-ahead cross-client temporal interdependencies under these constraints. Each client maps high-dimensional local observations to low-dimensional latent states using a nonlinear state-space model, while a Graph Attention Network (GAT)-based central server learns a state-transition model over the communicated states. Given a candidate graph skeleton, the server learns state-dependent attention coefficients that capture cross-client interactions. We analytically relate the GAT attention coefficients to the Jacobian of the learned state-transition model, yielding a first-order characterization of cross-client interdependencies. We further establish bounded closeness of the learned dynamics and Jacobians to a corresponding centralized oracle. Synthetic experiments validate the theoretical results on controlled systems with known graph skeletons. Experiments on real-world datasets with unknown graph skeletons demonstrate superior federated root cause analysis over baselines.

A spatially aware dictionary-free eigenfunction discovery (SADFED) framework is proposed for identification of low-rank Koopman models from data without prescribing a lifting dictionary, kernel, or neural-network eigenfunction architecture. A reference trajectory is selected and used to determine the Koopman modes by regularized least squares (LS). Then, a transformed temporal basis allows the eigenfunction values at all sampled initial conditions to be obtained by a second regularized LS projection. Consequently, only the real and imaginary parts of the eigenvalues remain as the optimization variables. Interpolation of the identified eigenfunction samples reveals their spatial structure, enabling numerical estimation of their gradients. A joint objective combines trajectory reconstruction error with a normalized Koopman partial differential equation (KPDE) residual, promoting spatial consistency with the KPDE over the sampled region and serving as a physics-informed regularizer. The method is evaluated on a system with analytical Koopman eigenfunctions, the FitzHugh-Nagumo system, the van der Pol oscillator, the Duffing system, and a two-spool turbojet engine. The examples demonstrate recovery of known eigenfunctions, sensitivity to reference trajectory and hyperparameters, limit-cycle harmonics and isochrons, discontinuous indicator eigenfunctions and isostables, symmetry exploitation, and construction of state-dependent lifted input dynamics. For the turbojet example, the identified model is further used for state estimation and design of a gain-scheduled tracking linear quadratic Gaussian controller. The results indicate the applicability of SADFED to Koopman spectral identification and control-oriented modeling of nonlinear dynamical systems.

The deep learning revolution has enabled major AI advances in physical sciences, particularly in discovering dynamical systems from observational data. Yet the reliability of learned surrogates and symbolically discovered models is often undermined by non-uniqueness: models may fit observed trajectories perfectly, but lack genuine predictive power. We show that chaos, despite its association with unpredictability, is often what makes governing equations discoverable. We prove that the classical Lorenz system is analytically discoverable and verify experimentally that for many systems out-of-domain generalization emerges precisely at chaos onset. Conservative systems, by contrast, are inherently non-discoverable from data alone. The prevalence of chaotic systems in benchmarks may have inadvertently obscured this limitation. These findings help explain why AI excels at weather forecasting, yet struggles in many engineering applications: the systems most amenable to discovery (chaotic ones) are often least amenable to control.

The accurate forecasting of complex, high-dimensional dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental task across numerous scientific and engineering disciplines. A significant challenge arises from noise-corrupted measurements, which severely degrade the performance of data-driven models. In chaotic dynamical systems, where small initial errors amplify exponentially, it is particularly difficult to develop a model from noisy data that achieves short-term accuracy while preserving long-term invariant properties. To overcome this, we consider the weak formulation as a complementary approach to the classical $L2$-loss function for training models of dynamical systems. We empirically verify that the weak formulation, with a proper choice of test function and integration domain, effectively filters noisy data. This insight explains why a weak form loss function is analogous to fitting a model to filtered data and provides a practical way to parameterize the weak form. Subsequently, we demonstrate how this approach overcomes the instability and inaccuracy of standard Neural ODE (NODE) in modeling chaotic systems. Through numerical examples, we show that our proposed training strategy, the Weak Penalty NODE, is computationally efficient, solver-agnostic, and yields accurate and robust forecasts across benchmark chaotic systems and a real-world climate dataset.

This work focuses on learning non-canonical Hamiltonian dynamics from data, where long-term predictions require the preservation of structure both in the learned model and in numerical schemes. Previous research focused on either facet, respectively with a potential-based architecture and with degenerate variational integrators, but new issues arise when combining both. In experiments, the learnt model is sometimes numerically unstable due to the gauge dependency of the scheme, rendering long-time simulations impossible. In this paper, we identify this problem and propose two different training strategies to address it, either by directly learning the vector field or by learning a time-discrete dynamics through the scheme. Several numerical test cases assess the ability of the methods to learn complex physical dynamics, like the guiding center from gyrokinetic plasma physics.

Hamiltonian dynamics describe a wide range of physical systems. As such, data-driven simulations of Hamiltonian systems are important for many scientific and engineering problems. In this work, we propose kernel-based methods for identifying and forecasting Hamiltonian systems directly from trajectory data. We present two approaches: a 2-step method that reconstructs trajectories before learning the Hamiltonian, and a 1-step method that jointly infers both. Across several benchmark systems, including mass-spring dynamics, a nonlinear pendulum, and the Henon-Heiles system, we demonstrate that our framework achieves accurate, data-efficient predictions and outperforms 2-step kernel-based baselines, particularly in scarce-data regimes, while preserving the Hamiltonian structure. Moreover, we prove a priori error estimates, ensuring reliability of the learned models. We also provide a more general, problem-agnostic numerical framework that goes beyond Hamiltonian systems and can be used for data-driven learning of arbitrary dynamical systems.

We study the fundamental problem of one-step prediction of a marginally stable unknown nonlinear dynamical system. We describe an algorithm for this problem, based on the technique of spectral filtering, which learns a mapping from past observations to the next based on a spectral representation of the system. Using techniques from online convex optimization, we prove vanishing prediction error for any nonexpansive nonlinear dynamical system with finitely many marginally stable modes, with rates governed by a novel quantitative control-theoretic notion of learnability. The main technical component of our method is a new spectral filtering algorithm for linear dynamical systems, which incorporates past observations and applies to general noisy and marginally stable systems. This generalizes the original spectral filtering algorithm to both asymmetric dynamics as well as incorporating noise correction, and is of independent interest.

Equation discovery is a fundamental learning task for uncovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems, with wide-ranging applications in areas such as brain connectivity analysis, climate modeling, gene regulation, and physical simulation. However, many existing approaches rely on accurate derivative estimation and are limited to first-order dynamical systems, restricting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose Sparse Equation Matching (SEM), a unified framework that encompasses several existing equation discovery methods under a common formulation. SEM introduces an integral-based sparse regression approach using Green's functions, enabling derivative-free estimation of differential operators and their associated driving functions in general-order dynamical systems. The effectiveness of SEM is demonstrated through extensive simulations, benchmarking its performance against derivative-based approaches. We then apply SEM to electroencephalographic (EEG) data recorded during multiple oculomotor tasks, collected from 52 participants in a brain-computer interface experiment. Our method identifies active brain regions across participants and reveals task-specific connectivity patterns. These findings offer valuable insights into brain connectivity and the underlying neural mechanisms.

In many applications, one needs to learn a dynamical system from its solutions sampled at a finite number of time points. The learning problem is often formulated as an optimization problem over a chosen function class. However, in the optimization procedure, prediction data from generic dynamics requires a numerical integrator to assess the mismatch with the observed data. This paper reveals potentially serious effects of a chosen numerical scheme on the learning outcome. Specifically, the analysis demonstrates that a damped oscillatory system may be incorrectly identified as having "anti-damping" and exhibiting a reversed oscillation direction, even though it adequately fits the given data points. This paper shows that the stability region of the selected integrator will distort the nature of the learned dynamics. Crucially, reducing the step size or raising the order of an explicit integrator does not, in general, remedy this artifact, because higher-order explicit methods have stability regions that extend further into the right half complex plane. Furthermore, it is shown that the implicit midpoint method can preserve either conservative or dissipative properties from discrete data, offering a principled integrator choice even when the only prior knowledge is that the system is autonomous.

Data-driven discovery of dynamics in biological systems allows for better observation and characterization of processes, such as calcium signaling in cell culture. Recent advancements in techniques allow the exploration of previously unattainable insights of dynamical systems, such as the Sparse Identification of Non-Linear Dynamics (SINDy), overcoming the limitations of more classic methodologies. The latter requires some prior knowledge of an effective library of candidate terms, which is not realistic for a real case study. Using inspiration from fields like traffic density estimation and control theory, we propose a methodology for characterization and performance analysis of calcium delivery in a family of cells. In this work, we compare the performance of the Constrained Regularized Least-Squares Method (CRLSM) and Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) for system identification and parameter discovery for governing ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The CRLSM achieves a fairly good parameter estimate and a good data fit when using the learned parameters in the Consensus problem. On the other hand, despite the initial hypothesis, PINNs fail to match the CRLSM performance and, under the current configuration, do not provide fair parameter estimation. However, we have only studied a limited number of PINN architectures, and it is expected that additional hyperparameter tuning, as well as uncertainty quantification, could significantly improve the performance in future works.

We study how the degree of nonlinearity in the input data affects the optimal design of reservoir computers, focusing on how closely the model's nonlinearity should align with that of the data. By reducing minimal RCs to a single tunable nonlinearity parameter, we explore how the predictive performance varies with the degree of nonlinearity in the reservoir. To provide controlled testbeds, we generalize to the fractional Halvorsen system, a novel chaotic system with fractional exponents. Our experiments reveal that the prediction performance is maximized when the reservoir's nonlinearity matches the nonlinearity present in the data. In cases where multiple nonlinearities are present in the data, we find that the correlation dimension of the predicted signal is reconstructed correctly when the smallest nonlinearity is matched. We use this observation to propose a method for estimating the minimal nonlinearity in unknown time series by sweeping the reservoir exponent and identifying the transition to a successful reconstruction. Applying this method to both synthetic and real-world datasets, including financial time series, we demonstrate its practical viability. Finally, we transfer these insights to classical RC by augmenting traditional architectures with fractional, generalized reservoir states. This yields performance gains, particularly in resource-constrained scenarios such as physical reservoirs, where increasing reservoir size is impractical or economically unviable. Our work provides a principled route toward tailoring RCs to the intrinsic complexity of the systems they aim to model.

System identification has greatly benefited from deep learning techniques, particularly for modeling complex, nonlinear dynamical systems with partially unknown physics where traditional approaches may not be feasible. However, deep learning models often require large datasets and significant computational resources for both training and inference due to their high-dimensional parameterizations. To address this challenge, we propose a meta-learning framework that discovers a low-dimensional manifold within the parameter space of an over-parameterized neural network architecture. This manifold is learned from an abundant meta-dataset of input-output sequences generated by a simulator of the class of systems of interest, and thereafter enables efficient model training while preserving the network's expressive power for the considered system class. Unlike bilevel meta-learning approaches, our method employs an auxiliary neural network to map datasets directly onto the learned manifold, eliminating the need for costly second-order gradient computations during meta-training and generally reducing the number of first-order updates required in inference, which could be expensive for large models. Finally, we derive a probabilistic bound that quantifies the performance gap between training on the learned low-dimensional manifold and the full parameterization. We validate our approach on a family of Bouc-Wen oscillators, which is a well-studied nonlinear system identification benchmark. We demonstrate that we are able to learn accurate models even in small-data scenarios.