Pixel-Level Prediction

We present a general approach to visualizing uncertainty in static 2-D statistical graphics. If we treat a visualization as a function of its underlying quantities, uncertainty in those quantities induces a distribution over images. We show how to aggregate these images into a single visualization that represents the uncertainty. The approach can be viewed as a generalization of sample-based approaches that use overlay. Notably, standard representations, such as confidence intervals and bands, emerge with their usual coverage guarantees without being explicitly quantified or visualized. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach in the IID setting using resampling, provided as an open-source Python library. Because the approach operates directly on images, the user needs only to supply the data and the code for visualizing the quantities of interest without uncertainty. Through several examples, we show how both familiar and novel forms of uncertainty visualization can be created. The implementation is not only a practical validation of the underlying theory but also an immediately usable tool that can complement existing uncertainty-visualization libraries.

Robots in human-centered environments require accurate scene understanding to perform high-level tasks effectively. This understanding can be achieved through instance-aware semantic mapping, which involves reconstructing elements at the level of individual instances. Neural networks, the de facto solution for scene understanding, still face limitations such as overconfident incorrect predictions with out-of-distribution objects or generating inaccurate masks. Placing excessive reliance on these predictions makes the reconstruction susceptible to errors, reducing the robustness of the resulting maps and hampering robot operation. In this work, we propose Voxeland, a probabilistic framework for incrementally building instance-aware semantic maps. Inspired by the Theory of Evidence, Voxeland treats neural network predictions as \textit{subjective opinions} regarding map instances at both geometric and semantic levels. These opinions are aggregated over time to form evidence, and are formalized through a probabilistic model. This enables us to quantify uncertainty in the reconstruction process, facilitating the identification of map areas requiring improvement (e.g. reobservation or reclassification). As a possible strategy to exploit this uncertainty quantification, we incorporate a Large Vision-Language Model (LVLM) to perform semantic level disambiguation for instances with high uncertainty. Results from the standard benchmarking on the publicly available SceneNN dataset demonstrate that Voxeland outperforms state-of-the-art methods, highlighting the benefits of incorporating and leveraging both instance- and semantic-level uncertainties to enhance reconstruction robustness. This is further validated through qualitative and quantitative experiments conducted on the real-world ScanNet dataset.

Feed-forward 3D reconstruction models output a per-pixel confidence that is used by downstream systems as an uncertainty signal. The confidence is trained to serve as a weight in the training loss of models. Whether the confidence can be used as an uncertainty magnitude has not been measured. We audit seven backbones on 13 datasets and score the confidence on four properties, i.e., ranking of error, ratio of error to uncertainty on average, slope of this ratio across the confidence range, and coverage of the implied error distribution. Although the confidence ranks error quite well, the uncertainty decoded from the confidence is too small compared to the actual error. The uncertainty has the right size only under the exact training conditions. The median case is off by at least 2.4x across all seven models, while the uncertainty is further off the more confident the model is. Our work shows that the overconfidence appears on unseen scenes even when the model reaches its loss's optimum. As a post-hoc repair we fit a power law on the confidence with two constants per backbone--dataset pair. The repair brings all four audited properties to target at the dataset level, while leaving ranking untouched. Fitted with the target dataset held out, the constants bring the median case from 2.4x off to 1.35x. The repair does not hold below the dataset level, where two-thirds of held-out scenes are still more than five points off in coverage. We attribute what the repair cannot reach to the model, which carries neither the scale of the error nor the shape of its distribution across predictions. We release the audit protocol, its results, and the fitted constants per backbone-dataset pair.