Pixel-Level Prediction

Polarization image fusion combines the stable luminance and structural information of the total- intensity image S0 with the material-sensitive details of the degree of linear polarization (DoLP) image. However, the reliability of DoLP varies spatially, and indiscriminate polarization transfer may amplify unstable responses or disturb the structural appearance anchored by S0. We therefore propose LG-PF, a lightweight confidence-guided framework that formulates polarization fusion as a selective residual transfer process. A Polarization Confidence Prior estimates spatially reliable polarization responses, a Mask-guided Multi-scale Fusion module regulates their transfer across three feature scales, and a Lightweight Context-aware Bounded Correction Head stabilizes local photometric and structural transitions. Confidence guidance is also incorporated into the optimization objectives to preserve reliable polarization details while suppressing unsupported responses. We also construct MSP, a multi-scene polarization fusion dataset containing 1000 pixel-aligned image pairs from 17 indoor and outdoor scene categories. LG-PF achieves the best results across all six evaluated metrics on MSP, while subset-based evaluations on PIF and GAND show promising transferability without fine-tuning. With only 0.2936 M parameters and an inference time of 21.712 ms per image, LG-PF achieves competitive fusion quality with low computational cost. The source code, dataset, and official data splits will be made publicly available upon publication.

Long-term change understanding from images of the same place revisited over time is a challenging task with applications in map maintenance and urban infrastructure monitoring. Prior work addresses it either through pixel-level prediction or difference captioning, neither of which is sufficient to reliably measure how well models detect and describe such changes. We introduce SPOT-THE-SHIFT, a human-verified benchmark for grounded image difference captioning of long-term changes in real-world driving scenes. Our benchmark provides natural language captions and spatial masks for structural changes across each image pair. We further propose an evaluation protocol that reliably assesses models' captioning ability, validated through human studies. Benchmarking state-of-the-art MLLMs, we find that models struggle with the fine-grained multi-image spatial capability required for this task. Finally, we develop a synthetic data generation pipeline that improves an off-the-shelf MLLM without sacrificing general capabilities.

Image super-resolution, which aims to reconstruct high-resolution images from their low-resolution observations, is fundamental to medical imaging, remote sensing, surveillance, microscopy, and scientific visualization. Traditional model-based methods formulate super-resolution as an inverse problem with hand-crafted regularization priors. While interpretable and theoretically grounded, they rely on fixed assumptions and require computationally intensive iterative solvers. Deep learning methods offer data-driven flexibility by learning nonlinear mappings from low- to high-resolution images, among which diffusion models have achieved particularly impressive perceptual quality. However, the standard diffusion training objective is a pixel-domain noise-prediction loss that does not explicitly enforce perceptual fidelity, which can lead to oversmoothing and loss of fine image structure. To address these limitations, we propose a perceptually regularized diffusion framework that incorporates prior knowledge through perceptual-loss-based regularization, improving training convergence and encouraging the recovery of meaningful image features. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate improved perceptual quality and competitive distortion metrics, highlighting the effectiveness of regularization for diffusion-based super resolution.

Quantitative MRI (qMRI) provides standardised tissue parameter maps, but the reliability of deep learning-based qMRI mapping methods is often not explicitly characterised. In this work we systematically evaluate uncertainty maps for quantitative MRI derived from multiple inferences of a data-consistent diffusion model-based qMRI framework. Evaluation on synthetic test data assessed error-awareness, high-error detection, selective prediction, and Gaussian interval calibration. Diffusion model-derived uncertainty was positively associated with the mapping error, while risk-coverage analysis showed that excluding high-uncertainty voxels reduced the retained error. However, the raw uncertainty was poorly calibrated for quantitative interval interpretation. Calibration was substantially improved using a post-hoc procedure combining prediction-value-dependent bias correction with scalar uncertainty scaling. Qualitative evaluation on a healthy volunteer showed spatially meaningful uncertainty patterns. These results indicate that diffusion model-derived uncertainty is informative for reliability assessment and selective prediction, but requires calibration for quantitative interval interpretation.

Modern autonomous vehicles are equipped with multiple sensors, such as cameras, LiDAR, and radar, for comprehensive environmental perception. However, robust cross-modal feature fusion remains a critical challenge, as the reliability of each sensor varies significantly across diverse real-world driving conditions, including poor visibility and adverse weather. While uncertainty quantification (UQ) mitigates this issue by allowing models to prioritize reliable signals, existing uncertainty-aware fusion methods typically rely on simple feature-level uncertainty estimates and thus often fail to generalize effectively in complex, out-of-distribution scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose CRUISE, a novel uncertainty-aware cross-modal sensor fusion framework. CRUISE integrates a vision-language model (VLM)-guided UQ module that generates fine-grained, pixel-level uncertainty estimates. By leveraging the VLM's rich prior knowledge and superior contextual reasoning, our approach provides a highly informative guide for the fusion process. Furthermore, we introduce a dynamic adaptive mechanism that explicitly models and captures cross-modal dependencies, ensuring the framework fully exploits the inherent complementary nature of multi-sensor inputs.

Vision-based navigation complements Global Navigation Satellite Systems, but certification demands integrity guarantees that account for faulty measurements. Previous work presented a probabilistic computer vision pipeline for runway-based pose estimation with fault detection inspired by Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring. This work extends that framework by deriving protection levels, which provide probabilistic bounds on pose error that remain valid under undetected faults. We present an algorithm for computing protection levels for the nonlinear Perspective-$n$-Point problem applied to an aviation setting. The algorithm covers all six degrees of freedom of the aircraft pose (position and orientation) directly. We analyze the effect of measurement redundancy, pixel-level prediction uncertainty, and runway distance on the resulting protection levels. To make the results tangible, we demonstrate tradeoffs in the protection levels on an illustrative runway example.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in image restoration tasks. However, when guiding image reconstruction, existing Diffusion Model-based Image Restoration (DMIR) methods typically rely on fixed data constraints and uniform step sizes, thereby overlooking the dynamic nature of the generative process. Such rigid designs render the models vulnerable to spatially non-uniform degradations, thus resulting in structural distortions and loss of fine details. Meanwhile, uniform step sizes introduce computational redundancy, whereas naïve step reduction strategies tend to accumulate approximation errors. To address these limitations, we propose a Local Epistemic Uncertainty Guided Active Sampling framework (LEADer). In the spatial domain, LEADer leverages pixel-wise uncertainty to dynamically modulate the prior strength within the null space, which effectively balances detail preservation and artifact suppression. In the temporal domain, it quantifies sampling stability via the uncertainty trace to enable adaptive trajectory pruning, thereby accelerating convergence. Theoretical proofs demonstrate that our framework achieves strict data consistency, while the trajectory pruning strategy admits a deterministic error bound, thereby guaranteeing stable convergence under skip sampling. Notably, our plug-and-play method can be seamlessly integrated into various DMIR baselines. Extensive experiments show that LEADer improves the performance of multiple state-of-the-art DMIR methods, while significantly reducing sampling time with negligible memory overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/JiaqiZhang-Sengoku/LEADer.

YOLO-Pose models provide efficient keypoint localization, but do not quantify the associated spatial uncertainty. We introduce a lightweight post-hoc probabilistic extension that augments a trained YOLO-Pose model with calibrated bivariate predictive distributions over keypoint locations, centered at the model's original predictions. Concretely, we train additional probabilistic heads with an importance-weighted negative log-likelihood to predict an input-dependent $2\times2$ dispersion matrix for each keypoint, followed by Gaussian calibration for broad downstream compatibility or Student-$t$ calibration for distributional fidelity. Complementing this, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines a suite of distributional calibration diagnostics with average keypoint precision (AKP), a keypoint-level extension of the COCO AP protocol for assessing reliability rankings. Experiments on COCO show that the learned uncertainty estimates enable effective keypoint-level reliability ranking, Student-$t$ calibration best captures the empirical residual distribution, and uncertainty-based pruning removes unreliable keypoints. A central application-level demonstration is vision-based aircraft landing, where calibrated covariances for runway keypoints support uncertainty-aware aircraft position estimation and downstream sensor fusion.

Accurate pixel-level classification of coronary angiograms is critical for cardiovascular disease assessment, yet the field lacks standardized evaluation protocols. In this work we demonstrate a new benchmark for the assessment of deep learning models which densely classify pixels of coronary angiograms to one of SYNTAX classes (or background). The evaluation covers 24 distinct architectures starting with classic convnets to recent state-space-based vision algorithms. We release CARDIAG - a multi-center, multi-label dataset which we carefully split to reliably compute metrics, accounting for diameter error, overlap, centerline quality and calibration. The data contains SYNTAX labels, binary, uncertainty and segmentation masks as well as intermediate frames together with the selected non-sensitive DICOM metadata. From the multitude of algorithms, we nominate ConvNeXt V2 encoder with DeepLab V3 Plus decoder as the best performing, achieving macro $F_1=0.456$, which we then ensemble with Mamba U-Net and Feature Pyramid Network, for an increased $F_1=0.479$. We demonstrate all the architectures to be well calibrated and determine the generalization of the top 5 methods, together with the data efficiency of these architectures. We highlight the importance of both high-resolution and low-resolution features in encoding. We also demonstrate the model correctness in the context of patient demographic, vessel sides and projection angle configurations. Overall the released benchmark allows for future studies to robustly and rigorously assess the proposals, not only for SYNTAX segmentation, but lesion detection and many more.

Deep gaze estimation works well in controlled capture but degrades in unconstrained settings, where systems must reject unreliable predictions. Single-pass uncertainty (e.g., heteroscedastic regression) infers uncertainty from pixels without explicit input-validity cues, while sampling based methods are often too costly for real time use. We propose Factor-Informed Uncertainty Distillation (FIUD), a teacher-student framework that aligns uncertainty with interpretable image-quality failure modes. A gradient-boosting teacher predicts expected gaze error from factors such as illumination, sharpness, eye visibility and symmetry; a neural student distills these signals via curriculum learning and ranking supervision into a lightweight single-pass uncertainty head. Across ETH-XGaze, Gaze360, and MPIIFaceGaze (>300k samples), FIUD improves uncertainty, error rank correlation and selective prediction versus deterministic and sampling-based baselines, with the largest gains in unconstrained settings.

This Good Practice Guide presents work done in the QUMPHY project (Uncertainty quantification for machine learning models applied to photoplethysmography signals) that considered both machine learning and uncertainty quantification for problems which used photoplethysmography (PPG) signals from wearable devices as input. It provides high-level guidance on what types of machine learning model might be used and how different models compare when applied to both regression and classification tasks. It provides guidance on the implementation of different methods for uncertainty quantification, covering both model-dependent and model-independent techniques, and on the validation of the results provided by those methods. It also describes six benchmark problems together with pointers to different benchmark datasets for each problem. Software is described that can assist practitioners in implementing the methods described herein and there is a brief consideration of ethical issues. It concludes with a summary and recommendations.

Real-world paired image dehazing remains challenging because haze degradation is spatially non-uniform, illumination-dependent, and physically ambiguous even when haze-free references are available. Existing end-to-end restoration networks usually learn a deterministic mapping from a hazy observation to a clean target, while degradation-sensitive feature responses, reverse haze-formation consistency, and cross-domain negative structure remain insufficiently exploited. In this paper, we propose Backbone-Agnostic Stochastic Perturbation Learning (BSPL), a plug-and-play framework for end-to-end real-world image dehazing. BSPL first introduces a Learnable Stochastic Perturbation Modulator (LSPM), which learns input-conditioned channel-wise and spatial-wise perturbation distributions and converts the resulting feature-response discrepancies into adaptive modulation weights. It then develops a Prior-informed Perturbation-guided Reconstruction Module (PPRM), which reuses the learned bottleneck perturbations together with transmission and atmospheric-light priors to reconstruct the hazy observation from the restored result and enforce degradation consistency. Furthermore, we propose a Dual-space Domain-diversified Distribution-aware Contrastive Loss ($D^3$CL) to regularize both clean restoration and hazy reconstruction spaces with real-world and synthetic negatives. Experiments on five real-world paired benchmarks show that BSPL consistently improves multiple representative backbones with only marginal additional inference overhead.

Earth Observation regression tasks such as building height, canopy height, and above-ground biomass estimation underpin critical applications in urban planning, forest monitoring, and climate policy, where both accuracy and reliability are critical. Yet most deep learning models yield only deterministic predictions, providing no indication of per-pixel reliability. These regression tasks are inherently challenging due to heterogeneous land surfaces, skewed target distributions, sensor noise, and signal saturation at high target values, making uncertainty (UC) estimation essential for reliable inference. We address this gap by modeling aleatoric uncertainty using year-long Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI time series, proposing two complementary approaches: (i) Gaussian UC, which jointly predicts mean and standard deviation under a Gaussian assumption, and (ii) Quantile UC, which estimates the 10th, 50th, and 90th quantiles to capture asymmetric and heteroscedastic error distributions. Both models are evaluated on three representative EO regression tasks at 10 m spatial resolution. Results show that both approaches match or surpass deterministic benchmarks and existing global products, while delivering well-calibrated, interpretable, and operationally useful confidence estimates. Notably, both models outperform the current 10 m state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware model for canopy height estimation. Our implementation will be available at: https://github.com/RituYadav92/EO-Regression-Uncertainty-Estimation

Single-shot fringe projection profilometry (FPP) networks that regress depth directly can exploit a shape-prior shortcut, recovering depth from object boundaries rather than from fringe phase. On a photorealistic synthetic benchmark (15,600 fringe images, 50 objects at 1.5-2.1 m standoff), the best such UNet baseline plateaus at 14.54 mm object mean absolute error (MAE), and neither more data nor more capacity removes the shortcut, because neither changes the hypothesis space the optimizer searches. We introduce PhiCalNet, which outputs a wrapped-phase representation $(\sinφ, \cosφ)$ and maps it to depth through a fixed differentiable calibration layer, removing the shape-prior solution architecturally rather than by a loss penalty. Because the single-shot mapping is non-injective without fringe order, PhiCalNet takes the fringe order as auxiliary input, an assumption a sensitivity analysis shows tolerates realistic decoding error; a physics-informed (PINN) baseline with the same physics as a soft penalty yields no gain, isolating the architectural choice as the operative factor. PhiCalNet reduces object MAE 3.3x to 4.46 mm, its residual confined to 0.103% of pixels at the $\pmπ$ wrap discontinuity, and a three-frame extension reaches 1.16 mm. Two checks agree: interpretability makes phase the most decodable internal feature, and pixel-wise conformal uncertainty quantification, to our knowledge the first for FPP, localizes error at the same discontinuity, where rejecting the top 5% of pixels by snapshot disagreement cuts root-mean-square error by 64% versus 3.5% for the baseline.

While various works address reflective symmetry understanding in 3D data and images, pixel-level semantic left-right prediction of in-the-wild images remains challenging, due to certain difficulties including the lack of 3D information, occlusion, object pose variation, partiality, etc. In this work, we propose an unsupervised learning framework to tackle this challenge. Leveraging recent advances in vertex-wise semantic left-right understanding of 3D data, our unsupervised learning method jointly utilises 3D shape and image datasets to infer pixel-wise semantic left-right predictions in single-view images. In particular, we show that a medium-scale 3D shape dataset comprising mainly of human- and quadruped animal-like shapes, combined with diverse in-the-wild image data, are sufficient to achieve high-quality semantic left-right prediction in images, even for entirely unseen 3D object categories, such as cars or trains. Overall, our approach achieves superior performance in dense pixel-wise semantic left-right predictions on both rendered and in-the-wild image datasets when compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Recent advances in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) have enabled significant progress in dense dynamic Simultaneous Localization And Mapping (SLAM). Prevailing methods typically discard predefined dynamic objects, ignoring that transiently static objects offer valuable geometric constraints for pose estimation. A recent work attempts to leverage this potential by employing per-pixel uncertainty maps to quantify the magnitude of motion. While this approach enables transiently static objects to enhance pose estimation, it erroneously integrates these objects into the static map, resulting in persistent artifacts. Moreover, its reliance on purely geometric information leads to ambiguous object boundaries in the uncertainty maps. To overcome these limitations, we present DL-SLAM, a monocular Gaussian Splatting SLAM system built upon a novel dual-level probabilistic framework. Our method computes dynamic probability maps by combining semantic and geometric information. These pixel-level probabilities are lifted to 3D and aggregated to derive an object-level dynamic probability for each instance. Object-level probability enables the categorical pruning of dynamic Gaussians, resulting in an artifact-free static map. The static map, in turn, provides a geometrically consistent guidance to refine the pixel-wise probabilities, enhancing their reliability. Experimental results demonstrate that DL-SLAM outperforms existing approaches, improving tracking accuracy by up to 13% while generating high-fidelity semantic maps.

Diffusion models enable probabilistic super-resolution and conditional generation, but pixel-space methods are computationally expensive and learned latent spaces often lack interpretable uncertainty quantification. We introduce Patch-PODiff-ViT, a structured latent diffusion framework in which the latent space is defined by patchwise Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), a fixed linear orthonormal basis over local patches, rather than learned by a nonlinear autoencoder. This yields low-dimensional, variance-ordered tokens that preserve spatial structure and enable efficient diffusion in a structured low-dimensional latent space with a Vision Transformer. Because the decoder is fixed, linear, and orthonormal, latent coefficient uncertainty can be propagated directly to physical-space predictive variance, enabling analytic propagation of predictive variance through the linear decoder without Monte Carlo estimation in pixel space. Across sea surface temperature, medical imaging, and natural images, the method achieves strong reconstruction with fewer parameters and lower memory, while producing well-calibrated spatial uncertainty that closely matches empirical ensembles.

Forecasting visual fields (VFs) is critical for personalized monitoring and treatment planning in glaucoma. This is inherently uncertain due to heterogeneous disease progression and measurement variability, yet most existing methods produce single deterministic predictions that fail to represent this uncertainty. We formulate VF forecasting as a probabilistic prediction problem and the use of conditioned denoising diffusion models to generate distributions of plausible future VFs from longitudinal observations with irregular follow-up intervals. Experiments on two independent VF cohorts show that diffusion-based predictions produce well-calibrated distributions for clinically relevant VF measures. When reduced to a standard point-estimate, the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy compared to clinical baselines and prior learning-based methods. Our results highlight the advantages of distributional modeling for VF forecasting and support a shift from point-estimate prediction toward uncertainty-aware, clinically interpretable risk assessment in glaucoma.

Path-traced synthetic stereo data underlie a large fraction of modern disparity-estimation training pipelines. We report a previously unrecognised property of such data: while the Monte Carlo (MC) noise streams of the two cameras are statistically independent, the underlying \emph{variance fields} -- deterministic per-pixel functions of the rendering integrand -- are highly correlated once aligned by the ground-truth disparity warp. Across 20 scenes rendered with Mitsuba~3, the warped Pearson correlation reaches $ρ{=}0.754{\pm}0.016$ across 20 scenes at $\mathrm{SPP}{=}512$, and on a representative scene remains essentially invariant ($ρ{=}0.778{\pm}0.001$) over a $16\times$ range of samples per pixel. The effect is strongest in Lambertian regions ($ρ{\approx}0.78$) and substantially weaker in glass ($ρ{\approx}0.30$), as predicted by an integrand decomposition into view-independent and view-dependent components. A residual-shuffle intervention that breaks the cross-view alignment while preserving the clean image degrades the GT cost margin by $33\%$ on non-glass and the variance-based winner-take-all accuracy on glass by $4.3\times$, confirming the structure functions as a matching cue. This signal is unique to MC-rendered data and constitutes a candidate sim-to-real shortcut whose impact on trained networks remains to be quantified.

Facial expression recognition (FER) is inherently ambiguous: human annotators frequently disagree, and models deployed in real environments face distribution shift. Crucially, these two conditions demand different downstream actions, as ambiguous in-distribution faces should be reported with their ambiguity whereas out-of-distribution inputs should be rejected. However, a single uncertainty score conflates the two. In this study, uncertainty decomposition into aleatoric and epistemic components for FER is investigated, and Uncertainty-Aware Routing (UAR), an inference-time routing mechanism that exploits the separation, is introduced. Specifically, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are obtained from a Deep Ensemble of fully fine-tuned DINOv2 models and are each validated against an independent external signal: aleatoric against human annotator disagreement, and epistemic against distribution shift induced by image corruptions. The proposed dual-validation protocol reveals that aleatoric recovers annotator disagreement with Spearman correlation 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.68), and epistemic detects corruption-induced shifts, achieving average AUROC of 0.699 at the highest corruption severity. UAR retains approximately 1.8 times more ambiguous in-distribution faces than single-uncertainty routing at a matched out-of-distribution rejection rate. A strong label-distribution-learning baseline achieves comparable disagreement recovery but cannot separate ambiguity from shift and therefore cannot route, establishing that the value of decomposition lies in the separation enabling interpretable and differentiated action selection.

Multimodal medical imaging fuses complementary anatomical and functional information, yet modalities frequently disagree in pathologically heterogeneous regions. Current segmentation models handle this in one of two inadequate ways: deterministic fusion that averages away disagreement, or post-hoc uncertainty estimation decoupled from the fusion process that produces it. Both obscure the clinically critical question: why is this prediction unreliable? We present EnTrust, a framework that treats inter-modal conflict as the primary source of predictive uncertainty. Our EnFuse module decomposes multimodal features into three disentangled components: shared anatomical consensus (F_c), modality-specific cues (F_{u,m}), and spatially localized conflict signals (F_{cf}), with independence enforced via a cross-covariance objective. This structured decomposition conditions SegDiff, a diffusion-based generative segmentation model whose sampled hypotheses diverge specifically in regions of modal disagreement. TrustMap then translates this hypothesis divergence into calibrated, pixel-wise uncertainty using ensemble entropy, conflict-guided perturbation probing, and a learned calibration head, enabling clinicians to understand not only where predictions are uncertain, but why. Across four benchmarks spanning brain, cardiac, lesion, and oncology domains, EnTrust achieves state-of-the-art segmentation accuracy while reducing calibration error by 40% compared to the strongest baseline. Notably, it outperforms 5x deep ensembles using a single model at roughly half the memory footprint. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/GenMI-Lab/EnTrust.git.

Unlike traditional remote sensing change detection that relies on predefined categories, Open-Vocabulary Change Detection (OVCD) identifies land cover changes flexibly using arbitrary text prompts. However, most existing OVCD methods rely on instance-level matching for stable correspondence but may overlook fine-grained variations (e.g., partial building extensions). Dense pixel-level comparison is more flexible, yet direct semantic comparison often produces unreliable candidate changes due to semantic ambiguity and spatial inconsistency. To this end, we propose ReA-OVCD, an efficient training-free framework that revisits pixel-level OVCD from a reliability assessment perspective. It first derives candidate change regions from pixel-wise semantic discrepancies to retain flexible localization. Instead of directly trusting these candidates, ReA-OVCD applies a two-stage semantic-spatial reliability assessment. The semantic stage evaluates whether a label discrepancy is supported by meaningful distributional and response-level changes, while the spatial stage validates whether a candidate region contains stable interior evidence rather than only boundary-induced responses. Extensive experiments across LEVIR-CD, WHU-CD, DSIFN, and SECOND show that the proposed framework improves the reliability of pixel-level OVCD and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, achieving $\mathrm{F}_{1}^{C}$ improvements of 3.54% to 8.45% while maintaining superior computational efficiency. The code is available at \href{https://github.com/Funny0101/ReA-OVCD}{https://github.com/Funny0101/ReA-OVCD}.

Reliable pixel-level uncertainty quantification holds the potential to transform clinical workflows by enabling high-fidelity longitudinal monitoring and distinguishing true pathological changes from artifacts. Ideally, these models provide the stability required for critical treatment planning and surgical intervention. However, standard deep learning models often suffer from miscalibration, yielding overconfident predictions that mask underlying vulnerabilities at subtle pathological boundaries. To address this, we propose QUAM-SM, a post-hoc framework using targeted adversarial search to identify "adversarially fragile" pixels. By actively seeking perturbations that expose predictive instability, our method highlights regions where decisions are most vulnerable to being flipped. Importantly, the framework disentangles epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on two public datasets with multiple expert annotations demonstrate that QUAM-SM outperforms both standard and recent uncertainty estimation approaches in terms of reliability and boundary sensitivity. Code is available at https://github.com/HanaJebril/quam_sm

Understanding when and why deep neural networks are uncertain is crucial for deploying reliable machine learning systems in safety-critical domains. While existing uncertainty quantification methods provide scalar measures of model confidence, they offer limited insight into which spatial regions of an input contribute to different types of uncertainty. We propose a novel visualization framework, Uncertainty Activation Map (UAM), that combines Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) with Full-Gradient Class Activation Mapping (FullGrad) to generate interpretable spatial uncertainty activation maps. Our approach distinguishes between two fundamental types of uncertainty: vacuity, representing lack of evidence, and dissonance, capturing conflicting evidence between competing hypotheses. By leveraging the complete gradient decomposition property of FullGrad and the principled uncertainty quantification of Subjective Logic, our method produces theoretically grounded visualizations that highlight specific image regions responsible for model uncertainty. With this framework, vacuity and dissonance activation maps are generated by computing belief-weighted attributions, enabling identification of where models lack knowledge versus where they encounter ambiguous evidence. Extensive evaluations across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively addresses the critical gap between uncertainty quantification and explainability, providing intuitive visual feedback to assess model reliability in complex visual recognition tasks.

Steerable convolutional neural networks (Steerable-CNNs) guarantee SE(3)-equivariance by parameterizing kernels as linear combinations of steerable basis functions, but their deterministic nature precludes uncertainty quantification - limiting their use in settings where confidence estimates are essential. We propose a Bayesian Steerable-CNN that places posterior distributions over the basis coefficients, yielding stochastic kernels while preserving equivariance exactly. The loss function of the model is obtained via variational inference and minimized by Bayes-by-Backpropagation. The framework admits a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components. Empirically, the model attains competitive classification accuracy alongside an expected calibration error of 0.0263 and outperforms its deterministic counterpart by up to 6.17% under distributional shift induced by additive Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we leverage the model's uncertainty estimates to enhance its performance significantly, achieving a notable gain - approximately 4% higher accuracy across 84% of the test dataset. A statistically significant negative correlation between epistemic uncertainty and prediction error confirms that the learned posterior variance is semantically meaningful. The framework unifies Bayesian uncertainty quantification with the inductive bias of equivariant CNNs.

Learning-based single-shot fringe projection profilometry (FPP) has been studied almost entirely at close range, and the networks used are evaluated only on aggregate error, leaving open whether they recover depth from fringe phase or from object-level shape cues that correlate with depth. This paper diagnoses that question mechanistically in the long-range regime (standoff beyond 1 m). Using FPP-ML-Bench, an open photorealistic synthetic benchmark (15,600 fringe images, 50 objects at 1.5--2.1 m), we first formalize why the single-shot fringe-to-depth mapping is more severely ill-posed at long range: it is non-injective without fringe-order information, and the depth error from an incorrect fringe order grows as $Z^2$ in the working distance. Systematic ablations, extended with a multi-frame study, establish a best UNet baseline at 14.54 mm object mean absolute error (MAE), 18% of the 80 mm object depth range, with only a 1.9$\times$ spread across four architectures, indicating a representational rather than a capacity-bound limit. A mechanistic interpretability study, the first applied to an FPP network, localizes the cause: linear probing shows edges are 2.82$\times$ more decodable than depth, Grad-CAM shows attention favoring boundaries over fringes by 1.28$\times$, and an in-range flat-plane test collapses a featureless plane to background depth despite valid fringes. The baseline solves the task via object-boundary shape priors rather than fringe-phase decoding. Because the shortcut is a hypothesis-space property, additional data or larger models will not remove it, motivating an architectural repair that removes the shape-prior solution by construction.

Increasing the resolution of planetary topography models can enable a better understanding of surface processes and geomorphology; however, existing analytical super-resolution methods are expensive and difficult to apply at large scales. Generative models provide the tools to learn complex relationships within data and can be applied at scale due to hardware accelerators and parallelization. We present a diffusion-based Schrödinger Bridge (SB) generative modeling approach for lunar topography super-resolution, connecting the distribution of low-resolution topography to that of high-resolution topography, incorporating physically-constraining optical imagery. Our approach is inspired by existing Shape-from-Shading methods, which improve a priori low-resolution topography by using optical images at the target resolution. We train SBs on a novel dataset of rendered lunar topography, emulating optical imagery from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Narrow Angle Camera. The result is a flexible approach for topography super-resolution which can provide pixel-level uncertainties in the reconstruction.

In fringe projection profilometry (FPP), depth is commonly recovered by fitting a phase-to-depth relation independently at each camera pixel. Although such pixel-wise calibration achieves high local accuracy, neighboring pixels can acquire markedly different calibration functions even when they observe the same smooth surface, producing spatially inconsistent geometry and structured surface artifacts. We propose a spatially coupled phase-depth transformation in which all pixels share a single low-dimensional mapping-global phase scalars combined with affine spatial terms on the undistorted reference-camera grid-rather than independent per-pixel fits, optionally augmented by a bounded, spatially smooth correction field. We further introduce a native-grid pairing scheme that constructs phase-depth calibration pairs directly on the reference-camera grid: when depth supervision comes from a rectified active-stereo pipeline, planes are fitted in stereo 3D and sampled back onto the camera grid along native rays, so the phase maps are never rectified. On a dental target with high-resolution scanner ground truth, the proposed model attains point-to-surface RMSE comparable to an active-stereo reference (about 12μm aggregate) while substantially improving spatial coherence over pixel-wise polynomial and rational calibration, and reduces the runtime mapping to a few element-wise operations per pixel with negligible parameter storage.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have achieved impressive forecasting performance at a small fraction of the computational costs required for traditional physics-based methods. However, they are primarily (1) data-driven and (2) evaluated using pixel-wide error metrics (e.g., RMSE), so there are no guarantees that their forecasts are consistent with known physical laws. We introduce PhysMetrics$.$Weather, an evaluation framework that assesses the physical realism of MLWP models across three types of metrics: conservation, spectral, and dynamical. By quantifying physical realism, this tool guides the development of physics-informed architectures and helps evaluate whether MLWP models are reliable for operational use. Our framework is available on Github at https://github.com/Emmakast/PhysMetrics.Weather.

Deepfake detection systems achieve near-perfect accuracy on benchmarks, yet forensic deployment demands reliable prediction uncertainty. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods rely on single sources and ignore that optimal uncertainty composition varies across architectures. We propose Correlation-Optimized Fusion (COF), an architecture-adaptive framework that fuses five complementary uncertainty sources -- epistemic, aleatoric, calibration, conformal, and distributional -- by maximizing Pearson correlation between fused uncertainty scores and prediction errors via constrained optimization on the probability simplex. COF requires no model modifications and only 42 s of weight optimization, compared to 20--45 h for a 5-model Deep Ensemble. Evaluation across eleven architectures on FaceForensics++ reveals a fundamental trade-off: under matched train/evaluation protocol, non-linear methods achieve approximately 5--6% higher in-domain correlation than COF (mean r = 0.438), but this reverses under distribution shift. On CelebDF, COF outperforms Random Forest in 9/11 architectures with up to 7.3x higher correlation (MaxViT-B: r = 0.249 vs. 0.034); RF degrades 85% cross-domain to r = 0.071, whereas COF retains substantially more signal (74% drop to r = 0.116). Cross-dataset evaluation on CelebDF and DFDC reveals catastrophic generalization failure across all methods: in-domain correlations of 0.41--0.47 collapse to near-zero externally (mean degradation 90.7%), with seven of eleven architectures exhibiting uncertainty inversion. These results establish COF as a practical, interpretable framework for controlled-distribution deployment and identify domain-adaptive UQ as the central open challenge for forensic deployment.

Object detection is a safety-critical component of autonomous driving. It is essential to quantify the uncertainty in bounding-box predictions for safety assurance. Post hoc uncertainty quantification without retraining aligns with real-world deployment requirements; therefore, we employ the Laplace approximation. Because instance-level uncertainty is needed, linearized inference methods that require multiple backpropagations are not time-efficient, and sampling-based methods are not fully post hoc. We propose Monte-Carlo generalized linearized model (MC-GLM), which provides instance-level and approximately post hoc uncertainty quantification. The number of samples required in the Monte Carlo step is constant and independent of the number of output instances, so it can be parallelized. Experiments on the nuScenes dataset with the CenterPoint detector validate the effectiveness of our method, and the resulting uncertainties exhibit good quality.

Robot policy learning benefits from world-action models that capture environment dynamics, but pixel-level prediction entangles dynamics with nuisance factors such as lighting and texture, making learned representations vulnerable to task-irrelevant visual variation. We propose JOPAT, a JOint Pixel-And-Track World-Action Model that predicts latent visual observations, 2D point tracks with visibility, and actions in a single denoising diffusion transformer. The key insight is that tracks provide an explicit representation of motion that captures long-horizon dynamics and remains robust under occlusion or partial out-of-frame motion, offering greater utility than modeling pixel appearance alone. On LIBERO and real-world LeRobot tasks, JOPAT improves over pixel-based baselines, with the largest gains on long-horizon tasks involving occlusion, object interaction, and off-screen motion.

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying monocular depth deep neural networks (DNNs) in safety-critical robotic systems. Conventional uncertainty methods such as ensembles and sampling-based approaches require multiple inferences per image, incurring substantial compute and memory overhead. Moreover, uncertainty predicted from a single image misses out on measuring disagreement between predictions across views of the same region. We propose Uncertainty from Motion* (UfM*), an uncertainty estimation algorithm that measures multiview disagreement efficiently by comparing previous and current views using a compact Gaussian mixture, requiring only a single DNN inference per image. Using Gaussians to compute multiview disagreement is not only more compute- and memory-efficient than a prior approach using a point cloud, but also improves uncertainty by measuring disagreement across regions of 3D space. UfM* paired with aleatoric uncertainty improves expected calibration error by 24-28% compared to an ensemble, while requiring only 3% of the energy and 0.02% of the memory on 100 out-of-distribution ScanNet sequences. We demonstrate UfM* consumes only 63 mJ per 224x224 image while running real-time at 30 FPS on an Arm Cortex-A76 CPU onboard a miniature energy-constrained robot, highlighting that measuring multiview disagreement using Gaussians enables efficient uncertainty for resource-constrained robotic systems.

LiDAR semantic segmentation is a core perception capability for autonomous vehicles and mobile robots. However, safe operation also depends on knowing when predictions are unreliable. Existing approaches typically rely on softmax confidence, which is often miscalibrated and overconfident, while stronger uncertainty estimates from Monte Carlo dropout or ensembles are often computationally expensive for real-time use. To this end, we introduce a novel, architecture-agnostic uncertainty-aware Adapter Head. It decomposes the prediction into a Preference Head for class ranking and a Strength Head that refines uncertainty assessment, thereby enabling a principled construction of evidential Dirichlet representations. Building on this design, we propose our inverse-vacuity self-calibration objective (Invascal), which directly supervises the strength signal to produce reliable and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates while preventing runaway evidence growth. We evaluate our framework across multiple LiDAR datasets and backbone architectures. We compare against deterministic training, Monte Carlo dropout and ensembles, and prior evidential methods. Our approach consistently improves uncertainty calibration over traditional deterministic methods with minimal computational overhead. At the same time, it preserves competitive segmentation accuracy, where prior evidential methods often suffer performance degradation.

Photos of faces uploaded online are vulnerable to malicious actors who can scrape facial images from online sources and intrude on personal privacy via unauthorized use of facial recognition models. This paper presents FaceCloak, a novel personalized face privacy protection system, which can generate defensive identity-specific universal face privacy masks from a single image of a user, causing facial recognition to fail. FaceCloak introduces a three-stage personalized face perturbation learning methodology: (1) It generates a small set of high-variety synthetic face images of a person based on a single image of the person. (2) It learns face cloaking by adding more protection to key facial-identity leakage regions through iterative perturbation generation over the small set of synthetic images, effectively shifting a user's identity embedding towards a distant anchor identity and away from a similar one. (3) It generates a personalized identity-protective mask in the form of pixel-wise cloaking, which is light-weight and can be efficiently applied to any facial image of a user while maintaining good perceptual quality. Extensive experiments on three popular face datasets across ten recognition models show the effectiveness of FaceCloak compared to 29 other existing representative methods. Code is available at https://github.com/zacharyyahn/FaceCloak

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for safety-critical domains like healthcare, yet it is rarely evaluated under realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. Here, we assessed predictive performance and uncertainty reliability for deep learning-based blood pressure (BP) estimation from photoplethysmography (PPG) signals under both in-distribution (ID) and OOD settings. Using an XResNet1D-50 trained on PulseDB and tested on four external datasets, we compared deep ensembles (DE) and Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) with Gaussian negative log-likelihood (GNLL) and mean squared error (MSE) losses, optionally followed by post-hoc recalibration via conformal prediction (CP), temperature scaling (TS), and isotonic regression (IR). The key findings of our study are as follows: (1) DE provides stronger predictive robustness under domain shift than MCD, an advantage that becomes clear primarily under external shift. (2) Recalibrated GNLL-based methods yield the best uncertainty calibration (e.g., GNLL+DE+CP for systolic blood pressure (SBP), GNLL+DE+TS for diastolic blood pressure (DBP)), while MSE-based uncertainty requires recalibration to become practically useful. (3) Across settings, CP and TS offer the most consistent gains, with IR remaining competitive in several cases. Overall, our results identify DE-based methods as most robust for predictive performance under domain shift, GNLL as strongest for native UQ, and recalibration as essential for making MSE-based uncertainty practical. These findings highlight the need to jointly assess predictive accuracy and calibration on external data for trustworthy cuffless BP estimation

Diffusion priors have recently demonstrated strong capability in enhancing the quality of sparse-view 3D reconstruction by augmenting training views at novel viewpoints, but they inevitably introduce hallucinated content -- artifacts inconsistent with the input views -- into the final 3D model. To address this challenge, we propose Hallucination-Aware Diffusion prior (HAD), which estimates pixel-wise hallucination score maps for augmented images by leveraging multi-view reasoning capabilities from a feedforward novel view synthesis (NVS) network pre-trained on large-scale 3D data. These hallucination scores enable selective masking of unreliable pixels during the progressive 3D reconstruction procedure, preventing the introduction of non-existent artifacts into the 3D model. To further enhance performance, we create multiple versions of augmented images at each novel view by conditioning the diffusion prior on different input views, which are then fused into a final image that leverages the broader context across all input views. We show that our method substantially reduces hallucination artifacts in diffusion-assisted 3D reconstruction, thereby achieving state-of-the-art performance across multiple benchmarks on novel view synthesis. Our project are publicly available at \href{https://xiliu8006.github.io/HAD-Project-website/}{project website}.

Rapid and accurate wildfire smoke severity assessment from satellite images is essential for emergency response, air quality modeling, and human health risk management. Existing deep learning approaches treat smoke detection as a binary task, producing point estimates without any measure of prediction confidence. We propose a probabilistic framework to categorize a satellite patch into Light, Moderate, and Heavy severity classes and to provide decomposed epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in a single forward pass. Our architecture uses the backbone of a pre-trained EfficientNet-B3 and a CBAM module with an evidential deep learning head that predicts Dirichlet concentration parameters, directly estimating vacuity (epistemic) and dissonance (aleatoric) without Monte Carlo sampling. Evaluated on 16,298 real satellite patches derived from the Wildfire Detection dataset, our model achieves 93.8% weighted test accuracy (91.1% unweighted) with ECE=0.0274. Selective prediction retaining the most certain 50% of patches achieves 96.7% accuracy. As image quality degrades, uncertainty increases monotonically, and vacuity is a practical scan quality measure. The Moderate class represents transitional smoke conditions that exhibit the highest epistemic uncertainty (mean vacuity = 0.187), confirming the model correctly identifies ambiguous smoke boundary regions. CBAM spatial attention maps localize to structurally distinctive scene regions, and t-SNE demonstrates the clear cluster separation of Light and Heavy smoke.

Autonomous vehicles depend on online HD map construction to perceive lane boundaries, dividers, and pedestrian crossings -- safety-critical road elements that directly govern motion planning. While existing pixel perturbation attacks can disrupt the mapping, they can be neutralized by standard adversarial defenses. We present MIRAGE, a framework for systematic discovery of semantic attacks that bypass adversarial defenses and degrade mapping predictions by finding plausible environmental variation (e.g. shadows, wet roads). MIRAGE exploits the latent manifold of real-world data learned by diffusion models, and searches for semantically mutated scenes neighboring the ground truth with the same road topology yet mislead the mapping predictions. We evaluate MIRAGE on nuScenes and demonstrate two attacks: (1) boundary removal, suppressing 57.7% of detections and corrupting 96% of planned trajectories; and (2) boundary injection, the only method that successfully injects fictitious boundaries, while pixel PGD and AdvPatch fail entirely. Both attacks remain potent under various adversarial defenses. We use two independent VLM judges to quantify realism, where MIRAGE passes as realistic 80--84% of the time (vs. 97--99% for clean nuScenes), while AdvPatch only 0--9%. Our findings expose a categorical gap in current adversarial defenses: semantic-level perturbations that manifest as legitimate environmental variation are substantially harder to mitigate than pixel-level perturbations.

We introduce Observation-aware Conformal Uncertainty Local-Calibration (OCULAR), a conformal prediction-based algorithm that uses perception information to provide uncertainty quantification guarantees for unseen test-time environments. While previous conformal approaches lack the ability to discriminate between state-action space regions leading to higher or lower model mismatch, and require environment-specific data, our method uses data collected from visually similar environments to provably calibrate a linear Gaussian dynamics model of arbitrary fidelity. The prediction regions generated from OCULAR are guaranteed to contain the future system states with, at least, a user-set likelihood, despite both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty -- i.e., uncertainty arising from both stochastic disturbances and lack of data. Our guarantees are non-asymptotic and distribution-free, not requiring strong assumptions about the unknown real system dynamics. Our calibration procedure enables distinguishing between observation-velocity-action inputs leading to higher and lower next-state-uncertainty, which is helpful for probabilistically-safe planning. We numerically validate our algorithm on a double-integrator system subject to random perturbations and significant model mismatch, using both a simplified sensor and a more realistic simulated camera. Our approach calibrates approximate uncertainty estimates both when in-distribution and out-of-distribution, producing volume-efficient prediction regions without requiring environment-specific data.

The geometry of the retinal vessel is a key biomarker of vascular diseases, yet clinical evidence remains primarily observational. Existing generative counterfactuals intervene only at the image-level disease label, failing to isolate explicit anatomical structure. To address this limitation, we propose the Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework (BTECF). By abstracting vascular networks into interconnected cubic-Bézier segments, BTECF establishes a disease-agnostic representation in which structural topology is explicitly preserved and atomically perturbable. Coupling this encoding with a diffusion-based generator enables parameter-level do-interventions on explicit geometric axes (e.g., tortuosity, caliber) while preserving background fundus textures. We validate BTECF on diabetic retinopathy, together with independent cohorts for ischemic stroke and Alzheimer's disease. Isolated counterfactual interventions produce dose-responsive shifts in classifier predictions; a matched pixel-drop control attenuates this response by an order of magnitude or more, ruling out out-of-distribution generation artifacts. By enforcing causal isolation between vessel topology and pixel-level confounders, BTECF provides a unified generative paradigm for hypothesis verification across systemic diseases. To support reproducibility, the code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

Despite strong zero-shot performance, SAM is unreliable under domain shift due to Mask-level Confidence Confusion (MCC), where a single IoU-based mask score fails to reflect pixel-wise reliability near boundaries. Motivated by the contrast between texture-biased shortcuts in neural networks and shape-centric processing in human vision, we model out-of-domain variation as appearance shifts and non-rigid deformations that jointly stress calibration. We propose Segment Anything with Robust Uncertainty-Accuracy Correlation (RUAC) for robust pixel-wise uncertainty estimation under appearance and deformation shifts. RUAC adds a lightweight uncertainty head, trains it with a collaborative style-deformation attack that jointly perturbs texture and geometry, and applies Uncertainty-Accuracy Alignment to ensure uncertainty consistently highlights erroneous pixels even under adversarial perturbations. Across 23 zero-shot domains, RUAC improves segmentation quality and yields more faithful uncertainty with stronger uncertainty-accuracy correlation. Project page: https://hongyouzhou.github.io/ruac/.

Accurate skin lesion segmentation is vital for dermoscopic Computer-Aided Diagnosis. However, visual ambiguity and morphological irregularity often defeat spatial modeling, necessitating multi-domain architectures. Existing paradigms frequently overlook the active use of prediction uncertainty, leading to deterministic frameworks that suffer from blind cross-domain fusion and overfit to label noise. To address these issues, we propose the Uncertainty-Guided Dual-Domain Network (UGDD-Net). UGDD-Net introduces a novel "Glance-and-Gaze" mechanism to transform uncertainty into an active guiding signal. Specifically, the Uncertainty-Guided Bi-directional Feature Fusion (UGBFF) module uses pixel-level uncertainty to modulate spatial-spectral interactions. The Uncertainty-Guided Graph Refinement (UGGR) module constructs a topology-aware graph to propagate reliable semantic consensus and refine uncertain nodes. Finally, the Uncertainty-Guided Margin-Adaptive Loss (UGML) enforces strict constraints on confident pixels while relaxing penalties on uncertain ones to improve statistical calibration. Extensive experiments on ISIC2017, ISIC2018, PH2, and HAM10000 datasets demonstrate that UGDD-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially on "Hard Samples". Our uncertainty maps align with expert inter-observer variability, providing robust interpretability for human-machine collaborative diagnosis.

Evaluation protocols for learned intrinsic image decomposition on MPI Sintel have been inconsistent. Several prior works split the dataset by frames, which allows spatially similar frames of the same scene to appear in both train and test partitions. We quantify this leakage effect for the first time, across three architectures: a frame-level split inflates test R_PSNR by 1.6 to 2.0 dB (p less than 0.01 for all three, paired t-test across 3 seeds) relative to a scene-level split, confirming an architecture-independent protocol effect. A three-point gradient (random/temporal/scene) shows the gap is continuous, and under extended training the frame-level inflation exceeds 10 dB. We advocate scene-level splits as the community standard and provide reference numbers for six representative models under this protocol. As a case study within the corrected protocol, we present a physics-informed decomposition I = R composed with S + N with a source-separable three-way heteroscedastic uncertainty head. We empirically verify channel specialization: the non-Lambertian uncertainty channel shows r = 0.67 cross-correlation with non-Lambertian residual error, more than 4 times the texture channel's correlation. We further demonstrate downstream utility: filtering out the 75% highest-uncertainty pixels reduces reconstruction MSE by 77% on retained pixels, whereas random filtering produces no improvement. The specialization also holds on out-of-distribution real photographs. We report negative results for a more elaborate variant combining frequency decomposition, cross-task supervision, evidential learning, contrastive loss, and test-time adaptation. Our method reaches 15.98 plus or minus 0.41 dB R_PSNR, within 0.8 dB of a 5-member Deep Ensemble at one-fifth the cost, with the unique capability of source-separated uncertainty.

Edge learning refers to training machine learning models deployed on edge platforms, typically using new data accumulated onboard. The computational limitations on edge devices affect not only model optimisation, but also calculation of the predictive uncertainty of the current model on the unlabelled data, which is vital for informing model updating. In this paper, we investigate edge learning in the context of performing deep image regression on a remote sensing satellite, where a deep network is executed by an onboard computer to regress a scalar $y$ from an input image, e.g., $y$ is the percentage of pixels indicating cloud coverage or land use. We propose an uncertainty-guided edge learning (UGEL) algorithm that can accurately prioritise the data to speed up training convergence of the on-board regression model. Underpinning UGEL is the calculation of predictive uncertainty based on deep beta regression, where a deep network is used to estimate the parameters of a beta distribution for which the target $y$ for an input image has a high likelihood. Compared to established methods for uncertainty estimation that are either too costly on edge devices (e.g., require many forward passes per sample) or make strict assumptions on the predictive distribution (e.g., Gaussian), deep beta regression is computable in a single forward pass and allows more general predictive distributions. Results show that UGEL delivers faster-converging edge learning than active or semi-supervised learning. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/anh-vunguyen/UGEL.

Accurate, unified models for event cameras (ECs) remain elusive, hampering calibration and algorithm design. We develop a foundational probabilistic model for EC event detection, grounded in photon statistics, that unifies the description of static scene noise events and step response curves (S-curves) within a single analytical framework. Three formulations of the probability distributions are derived, spanning all intensity regimes: exact Poisson, saddle-point, and Gaussian. The model reveals the underlying connection between these otherwise disparate EC behaviors and clarifies the interpretation of S-curves, which we show is more nuanced than selecting a fixed probability threshold. Based on this model, we propose Noise2Params, a method for determining camera-specific values of the log-contrast threshold $B$, the lux-to-photon conversion factor $α$, and the leakage term $θ$ (found to be intensity dependent), via error minimization against observed noise-event distributions. Noise2Params requires only recordings of static, uniform scenes, offering an experimentally accessible alternative to approaches that demand specialized dynamic light sources. We further support the validity the model by training convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on synthetic noise images generated from our distributions and evaluating their ability to reconstruct static scenes from experimental data. We further demonstrate the utility of our model by showing that CNNs incorporating synthetic data outperform those trained solely on experimental data. Our framework provides a quantitative foundation for EC calibration, noise-aware algorithm design, and applications in photon-limited regimes.

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Unlearnable examples (UEs) aim to compromise model training by injecting imperceptible perturbations to clean samples. However, existing UE schemes exhibit limited robustness against advanced defenses due to their heuristic design or narrowly scoped domain perturbations. To address this, we propose \texttt{DUNE}, a \underline{\textbf{D}}ual-branch \underline{\textbf{UN}}learnable \underline{\textbf{E}}nsemble perturbation optimization approach. Specifically, \texttt{DUNE} separately optimizes perturbations in the spatial and color domains to establish the mapping between perturbations and shift-induced labels. This design extends the perturbation domain to increase noise intensity for improving robustness and drives the models to learn perturbation-oriented features with degraded generalization, thereby achieving unlearnability. To strengthen \texttt{DUNE}'s performance, we further propose an unlearnability-enhancing ensemble strategy that aggregates diverse pre-trained models during the dual-branch optimization. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets CIFAR-10 and ImageNet verify that \texttt{DUNE}'s robustness outperforms 12 SOTA UE schemes under 7 mainstream defenses, yielding a lower average test accuracy of 14.95% to 50.82%.

Epistemic uncertainty estimation is essential for identifying regions where deep learning system outputs may be unreliable. However, existing approaches require computationally expensive ensemble methods or multiple stochastic forward passes, limiting their scalability to dense prediction tasks like segmentation. We propose Resolution-Aggregated Decoder Mutual Information (RADMI), a single-pass method that estimates prediction uncertainty by measuring mutual information (MI) between consecutive decoder layers in segmentation networks. We observe that elevated inter-layer MI correlates with prediction uncertainty, as the network must integrate conflicting contextual information at ambiguous regions such as class boundaries. Evaluating on a seismic facies segmentation benchmark, RADMI achieves the highest correlation with deep ensemble uncertainty among all single-pass methods, outperforming the next-best baselines by 5.5% in Pearson and 10.7% in Spearman correlation coefficients. Compared to baselines that either lack spatial precision or demand significant computational overhead, RADMI yields sharp, boundary-localized uncertainty maps without architectural modifications. Our results suggest that linear aggregation of normalized information flow provides a principled and efficient proxy for prediction uncertainty in encoder-decoder architectures.

We propose UAPAR, an Uncertainty-Aware Pedestrian Attribute Recognition framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first EDL-based uncertainty-aware framework for pedestrian attribute recognition (PAR). Unlike conventional deterministic methods, which fail to assess prediction reliability on low-quality samples, UAPAR effectively identifies unreliable predictions and thus enhances system robustness in complex real-world scenarios. To achieve this, UAPAR incorporates Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) into a CLIP-based architecture. Specifically, a Region-Aware Evidence Reasoning module employs cross-attention and spatial prior masks to capture fine-grained local features, which are further processed by an evidence head to estimate attribute-wise epistemic uncertainty. To further enhance training robustness, we develop an uncertainty-guided dual-stage curriculum learning strategy to alleviate the adverse effects of severe label noise during training. Extensive experiments on the PA100K, PETA, RAPv1, and RAPv2 datasets demonstrate that UAPAR achieves competitive or superior performance. Furthermore, qualitative results confirm that the proposed framework generates uncertainty estimates that are predictive of challenging or erroneous samples.

In pathology, the spatial distribution and proportions of tissue types are key indicators of disease progression, and are more readily available than fine-grained annotations. However, these assessments are rarely mapped to pixel-wise segmentation. The task is fundamentally underdetermined, as many spatially distinct segmentations can satisfy the same global proportions in the absence of pixel-wise constraints. To address this, we introduce Variational Segmentation from Label Proportions (VSLP), a two-stage framework that infers dense segmentations from global label proportions, without any pixel-level annotations. This framework first leverages a pre-trained transformer model with test-time augmentation to produce a pixel-wise confidence estimate. In the second stage, these estimates are fused by solving a variational optimization problem that incorporates a Wasserstein data fidelity term alongside a learned regularizer. Unlike end-to-end networks, our variational method can visualize the fidelity-regularization energy, resulting in more interpretable segmentation. We validate our approach on two public datasets, achieving superior performance over existing weakly supervised and unsupervised methods. For one of these datasets, proportions have been estimated by an experienced pathologist to provide a realistic benchmark to the community. Furthermore, the method scales to an in-house dataset with noisy pathologist labels, severely outperforming state-of-the-art methods, thereby demonstrating practical applicability. The code and data will be made publicly available upon acceptance at https://github.com/xiaoliangpi/VSLP.

In principle, deep generative models can be used to perform domain adaptation; i.e. align the input feature representations of test data with that of a separate discriminative model's training data. This can help improve the discriminative model's performance on the test data. However, generative models are prone to producing hallucinations and artefacts that may degrade the quality of generated data, and therefore, predictive performance when processed by the discriminative model. While uncertainty quantification can provide a means to assess the quality of adapted data, the standard framework for evaluating the quality of predicted uncertainties may not easily extend to generative models due to the common lack of ground truths (among other reasons). Even with ground truths, this evaluation is agnostic to how the generated outputs are used on the downstream task, limiting the extent to which the uncertainty reliability analysis provides insights about the utility of the uncertainties with respect to the intended use case of the adapted examples. Here, we describe how decision-theoretic uncertainty quantification can address these concerns and provide a convenient framework for evaluating the trustworthiness of generated outputs, in particular, for domain adaptation. We consider a case study in photoplethysmography time series denoising for Atrial Fibrillation classification. This formalises a well-known heuristic method of using a downstream classifier to assess the quality of generated outputs.

Interactive video segmentation models such as SAM2 have demonstrated strong generalization across diverse visual domains. However, under weak user supervision, for example, when sparse point prompts are provided on a single frame, their predictions often suffer from temporal instability, including flickering boundaries, object dropout, and inconsistent object extents across frames. These issues limit their reliability in downstream video understanding and control applications. In this paper, we propose an inference-time temporal probability smoothing method that improves the temporal stability of SAM2-based video segmentation without retraining or architectural modification. Our approach operates directly on per-frame segmentation probability maps and leverages optical-flow-based motion warping together with pixel-wise uncertainty estimates derived from segmentation entropy, and forward-backwards flow consistency. These signals are used to adaptively blend current-frame predictions with motion-aligned historical estimates, yielding temporally coherent segmentation outputs under weak prompts. We evaluate the proposed method on four diverse video sequences using a comprehensive set of frame-wise and temporal stability metrics, including motion-compensated IoU, boundary consistency, object persistence, and area volatility. Experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in temporal stability over vanilla SAM2 inference while preserving spatial accuracy. The proposed framework is lightweight, model-agnostic, and well-suited for real-time, interactive video segmentation.

Accurate open-vocabulary 3D scene understanding requires semantic representations that are both language-aligned and spatially precise at the pixel level, while remaining scalable when lifted to 3D space. However, existing representations struggle to jointly satisfy these requirements, and densely propagating pixel-wise semantics to 3D often results in substantial redundancy, leading to inefficient storage and querying in large-scale scenes. To address these challenges, we present \emph{PLAF}, a Pixel-wise Language-Aligned Feature extraction framework that enables dense and accurate semantic alignment in 2D without sacrificing open-vocabulary expressiveness. Building upon this representation, we further design an efficient semantic storage and querying scheme that significantly reduces redundancy across both 2D and 3D domains. Experimental results show that \emph{PLAF} provides a strong semantic foundation for accurate and efficient open-vocabulary 3D scene understanding. The codes are publicly available at https://github.com/RockWenJJ/PLAF.

Diffusion models can be challenged in the low signal-to-noise regime, where they have to make pixel-level predictions despite the presence of high noise. The geometric intuition is akin to using the finest stroke for oil painting throughout, which may be ineffective. We therefore study \emph{stroke-size control} as a controlled intervention that changes the roughness of the supervised target, predictions and perturbations across timesteps, in an attempt to ease the low signal-to-noise challenge via prediction target simplification.

Polarimetric imaging enables advanced vision applications such as normal estimation and de-reflection by capturing unique surface-material interactions. However, existing applications (alternatively called downstream tasks) rely on datasets constructed by naively regrouping raw measurements from division-of-focal-plane sensors, where pixels of the same polarization angle are extracted and aligned into sparse images without proper demosaicking. This reconstruction strategy results in suboptimal, incomplete targets that limit downstream performance. Moreover, current demosaicking methods are task-agnostic, optimizing only for photometric fidelity rather than utility in downstream tasks. Towards this end, we propose PolarAPP, the first framework to jointly optimize demosaicking and its downstream tasks. PolarAPP introduces a feature alignment mechanism that semantically aligns the representations of demosaicking and downstream networks via meta-learning, guiding the reconstruction to be task-aware. It further employs an equivalent imaging constraint for demosaicking training, enabling direct regression to physically meaningful outputs without relying on rearranged data. Finally, a task-refinement stage fine-tunes the task network using the stable demosaicking front-end to further enhance accuracy. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that PolarAPP outperforms existing methods in both demosaicking quality and downstream performance. Code is available upon acceptance.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have shown promise in addressing the ill-posed deconvolution problem in computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging for acute ischemic stroke assessment. However, existing PINN-based approaches remain deterministic and do not quantify uncertainty associated with violations of physics constraints, limiting reliability assessment. We propose Evidential Perfusion Physics-Informed Neural Networks (EPPINN), a framework that integrates evidential deep learning with physics-informed modeling to enable uncertainty-aware perfusion parameter estimation. EPPINN models arterial input, tissue concentration, and perfusion parameters using coordinate-based networks, and places a Normal--Inverse--Gamma distribution over the physics residual to characterize voxel-wise aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in physics consistency without requiring Bayesian sampling or ensemble inference. The framework further incorporates physiologically constrained parameterization and stabilization strategies to promote robust per-case optimization. We evaluate EPPINN on digital phantom data, the ISLES 2018 benchmark, and a clinical cohort. On the evaluated datasets, EPPINN achieves lower normalized mean absolute error than classical deconvolution and PINN baselines, particularly under sparse temporal sampling and low signal-to-noise conditions, while providing conservative uncertainty estimates with high empirical coverage. On clinical data, EPPINN attains the highest voxel-level and case-level infarct-core detection sensitivity. These results suggest that evidential physics-informed learning can improve both accuracy and reliability of CTP analysis for time-critical stroke assessment. Source code is available at https://github.com/jhlee0619/EPPINN.

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently suffer from miscalibration, manifested as overconfidence in erroneous predictions. To facilitate clinical acceptance, it is imperative that models quantify uncertainty in a manner that correlates with prediction correctness, allowing clinicians to identify unreliable outputs for further review. To address this necessity, this paper proposes a probabilistic optimization framework grounded in Bayesian deep learning. Specifically, the Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Curve (CUBC) is first explored as an intermediate operational target. Grounded in this target, a novel Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Loss (CUB-Loss) is proposed to regularize the alignment between prediction confidence and uncertainty estimates during training, imposing penalties on high-certainty errors and low-certainty correct predictions. Upon completion of training optimization, a Boundary Curve Calibration Error (BCCE) metric is further introduced to measure the degree of boundary alignment in the calibrated model. Building on this measurement, a Dual Temperature Scaling (DTS) strategy is devised to perform post-hoc refinement, further adjusting the posterior predictive distribution across different confidence-uncertainty regions. The proposed framework is validated on three distinct medical imaging tasks: automatic screening of pneumonia, diabetic retinopathy detection, and identification of skin lesions. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves uncertainty calibration across diverse modalities, maintains robust performance in data-scarce scenarios, and remains effective on severely imbalanced datasets, underscoring its potential for real clinical deployment.

Parallel imaging techniques reduce magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan time but image quality degrades as the acceleration factor increases. In clinical practice, conservative acceleration factors are chosen because no mechanism exists to automatically assess the diagnostic quality of undersampled reconstructions. This work introduces a general framework for pixel-wise uncertainty quantification in parallel MRI reconstructions, enabling automatic identification of unreliable regions without access to any ground-truth reference image. Our method integrates conformal quantile regression with image reconstruction methods to estimate statistically rigorous pixel-wise uncertainty intervals. We trained and evaluated our model on Cartesian undersampled brain and knee data obtained from the fastMRI dataset using acceleration factors ranging from 2 to 10. An end-to-end Variational Network was used for image reconstruction. Quantitative experiments demonstrate strong agreement between predicted uncertainty maps and true reconstruction error. Using our method, the corresponding Pearson correlation coefficient was higher than 90% at acceleration levels at and above four-fold; whereas it dropped to less than 70% when the uncertainty was computed using a simpler a heuristic notion (magnitude of the residual). Qualitative examples further show the uncertainty maps based on quantile regression capture the magnitude and spatial distribution of reconstruction errors across acceleration factors, with regions of elevated uncertainty aligning with pathologies and artifacts. The proposed framework enables evaluation of reconstruction quality without access to fully-sampled ground-truth reference images. It represents a step toward adaptive MRI acquisition protocols that may be able to dynamically balance scan time and diagnostic reliability.

Deep learning (DL) has transformed neuroimaging by delivering state-of-the-art performance with reduced computation times. Yet, the numerical uncertainty inherent to DL training remains largely underexplored despite its potential to significantly impact the reliability of model outcomes. We show that training the FastSurfer segmentation model introduces substantial numerical uncertainty that exceeds its non-DL counterpart (FreeSurfer 7.3.2) in cortical regions, potentially impacting downstream clinical results. We also characterize this training-time uncertainty using random seed perturbations and demonstrate that seed-induced variability is structurally comparable to numerical variability. We then show that seed variability can be leveraged as a data augmentation technique through ensembling to improve downstream brain age regression performance. These findings position numerical uncertainty during DL training as a substantive factor in neuroimaging reliability, with measurable consequences for downstream tasks, and demonstrate that it can simultaneously be harnessed as a data augmentation technique.