Precipitation Nowcasting

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Overview

Precipitation nowcasting estimates where rain will fall and how intense it will be over the next minutes to hours, supporting warnings and short-term decisions. Methods range from radar-motion extrapolation and recurrent or U-Net models to transformers, state-space models, and diffusion or flow-based generators; many also fuse satellite, station, or numerical weather forecasts and incorporate physical constraints. A central challenge is forecasting rare, high-impact rainfall without blurring storm structure or producing false alarms, especially as forecast horizons lengthen. Current work balances deterministic accuracy with probabilistic calibration, fine-scale detail, computational cost, and reliable performance across regions and weather regimes.

Latest papers

CardsList

40 papers5 papers in the last four weeks, down 17% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. M3R: Localized Rainfall Nowcasting with Meteorology-Informed MultiModal Attention

    Apr 15, 2026Sanjeev Panta, Rhett M Morvant, Xu Yuan +2Precipitation NowcastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA · University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

  2. SmaAT-QMix-UNet: A Parameter-Efficient Vector-Quantized UNet for Precipitation Nowcasting

    Mar 23, 2026Nikolas Stavrou, Siamak MehrkanoonPrecipitation NowcastingU-Net

    Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands

  3. Extending Precipitation Nowcasting Horizons via Spectral Fusion of Radar Observations and Foundation Model Priors

    Mar 23, 2026Yuze Qin, Qingyong Li, Zhiqing Guo +3Precipitation NowcastingWeather Forecasting

    Key Laboratory of Big Data & Artificial Intelligence in Transportation (Ministry of Education), Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China · CMA Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, Nanjing Innovation Institute for Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China

  4. PA-Net: Precipitation-Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Tail Rainfall Nowcasting

    Mar 14, 2026Xinyu Xiao, Sen Lei, Eryun Liu +5Precipitation NowcastingMixture-of-Experts Models

    Fudan University · the School of Information Science and Technology, Southwest Jiaotong University · Zhejiang University +2

  5. MeTok: An Efficient Meteorological Tokenization with Hyper-Aligned Group Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting

    Mar 14, 2026Qizhao Jin, Xianhuang Xu, Yong Cao +2Precipitation NowcastingTransformer

    School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Centre · State Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems, Institute of Automation

  6. Assessing the Utility of Volumetric Motion Fields for Radar-based Precipitation Nowcasting with Physics-informed Deep Learning

    Mar 13, 2026Peter Pavlík, Anna Bou Ezzeddine, Viera RozinajováPrecipitation NowcastingPrecipitation Forecasting

    Kempelen Institute of Intelligent Technologies, Sky Park Offices, Bottova 7939/2A, Bratislava 811 09, Slovakia · Faculty of Information Technology, Brno University of Technology, Božetěchova 2, Brno 612 00, Czech Republic

  7. MAD-SmaAt-GNet: A Multimodal Advection-Guided Neural Network for Precipitation Nowcasting

    Mar 3, 2026Samuel van Wonderen, Siamak MehrkanoonPrecipitation ForecastingPrecipitation Nowcasting

    Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

  8. FusionCast: Enhancing Precipitation Nowcasting with Asymmetric Cross-Modal Fusion and Future Radar Priors

    Mar 2, 2026Henan Wang, Shengwu Xiong, Yifang Zhang +4Precipitation NowcastingPrecipitation Forecasting

    School of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Wuhan University of Technology · School of Earth and Space Science and Technology, Wuhan University

  9. A Space-Time Transformer for Precipitation Nowcasting

    Nov 14, 2025Levi Harris, Tianlong ChenPrecipitation ForecastingTransformer

    UNC Chapel Hill

  10. A Storm-Centric 250 m NEXRAD Level-II Dataset for High-Resolution ML Nowcasting

    Oct 15, 2025Andy ShiPrecipitation ForecastingPrecipitation Nowcasting