Robust Mean Estimation

We study adaptive confidence sets for mean vectors of multivariate Gaussians with identity covariance under Huber contamination when the contamination proportion is unknown. We show that an information-theoretically optimal adaptive confidence set can be constructed by simultaneously quantifying uncertainty across all one-dimensional projections. The resulting confidence set achieves the optimal diameter and reveals a substantial adaptation cost compared with the minimax estimation error. Although statistically optimal, this construction is computationally infeasible. We establish a Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound showing that achieving diameter $O(m^{-1/2})$ requires either exponentially many queries or query tolerance $d^{-Ω(m)}$. Thus, in contrast to robust mean estimation, adaptation to the unknown contamination proportion incurs both a statistical cost and a computational barrier within the SQ framework. Finally, we give a low-degree moment-matching algorithm that constructs an adaptive confidence set using $d^{O(m)}$ samples and time. Its diameter bound contains an additional $O(m^{-1/2})$ term beyond the information-theoretic rate, matching the dependence on $m$ in the SQ lower bound. Together, these results characterize the statistical limits of adaptive robust confidence sets under Huber contamination and quantify a computational barrier within the SQ framework.

We revisit median-of-means estimation from a deterministic optimization viewpoint and develop a family of block-Lp estimators for robust learning with heavy-tailed and adversarially corrupted data. In a block contamination model with at least a fraction 1 minus epsilon of good blocks, we first show that every convex block M-estimator has worst-case robustness constant at least 1 divided by 1 minus 2 epsilon. This matches the classical median-of-means bound and proves that the trimmed-block oracle constant 1 divided by 1 minus epsilon cannot be attained within the convex class. We then introduce a nonconvex block-Lp family for p between 0 and 1 and derive finite-sample deterministic robustness bounds for all global minimizers. As p decreases from 1 toward 0, these bounds continuously approach the trimmed-block oracle constant. For sufficiently small p, the global minimizers coincide with those of the oracle under a mild separation condition. We also show that the block-Lp objectives have a benign landscape, with all local minima remaining close to the truth and no bad basins. Combining these results with block-level concentration yields sub-Gaussian deviation bounds under finite 2 plus delta moments and high-dimensional extensions to robust mean estimation and sparse regression.

Local differential privacy (LDP) protocols are vulnerable to poisoning attacks. Existing research have proposed efficient defense strategies for single-item users. However, in practice, a user may possess multiple items. The defense against poisoning attacks for multi-item users is challenging, because due to larger output spaces, the adversary can conduct more powerful attacks without being detected. In this paper, we address the robust sparse vector mean estimation problem, in which each user has a vector with $m$ nonzero coordinates. We propose Randomized Projection with Clipping (RPC). Firstly, the server sends a random binary vector to each user. The user then projects its local data on the vector, and clip the value to restrict the attacker's capability. To handle clipping bias, we propose a correction method based on a careful analysis that gives an exact expression of the bias. As a result, bias-variance tradeoff is no longer needed, thus the clipping threshold can be further reduced to shrink the output space and enhance robustness. We provide a rigorous theoretical guarantee of the estimation error under all possible attacks. Numerical experiments show that under trusted environments, our new method achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods, indicating that our method is already an efficient estimator in its own right. Under untrusted environments, our method is also significantly more robust to poisoning attacks.

Heavy tails weaken high-confidence control for the empirical mean. Geometric median-of-means (MOM) also lacks a threshold that moves toward mean efficiency. We propose HOMER, or Huber-of-Means for Efficient and Robust Estimation. HOMER aggregates block means through a radial Huber center. Its canonical and pseudo-Huber forms bound each block score and interpolate between median-like robustness and the empirical mean. We establish a Hilbert-space majority theorem and a MOM-order deviation bound under a finite second moment. Canonical HOMER recovers the sample mean inside its quadratic region. Pseudo-HOMER approaches the sample mean as the threshold grows. It also admits asymptotic linearity and consistent sandwich covariance estimation around the population block-Huber target. Under a finite third moment, fixed finite-dimensional projections support mean inference at the usual parametric rate. This result requires growing block sizes and counts, with block sizes increasing faster. Heavy-tailed simulations show that HOMER remains stable when a minority of block summaries is displaced. On clean Gaussian data, both versions closely approach the empirical mean's efficiency. Finite-block sandwich intervals undercovered, especially for skewed functional data. Further studies show failure when contamination affects most blocks or compromises ordinary within-block means.

The LLM Jury, a Panel of LLM Evaluators (PoLL) reporting consensus scores, has become a practical alternative to single-judge LLM evaluation, yet its statistical behavior remains poorly understood. We formalize the LLM Jury under the Huber contamination model and show that PoLL incurs unbounded bias under any positive contamination, regardless of jury size, whenever a single judge fails in a biased, LLM-typical way (mode collapse, sycophancy, safety refusal). Framing jury consensus as classical robust mean estimation, we propose RoPoLL (Robust Panel of LLM-as-Judge), which preserves the PoLL panel but replaces the aggregation function with a robust mean estimator, instantiated with the geometric median (GM): tuning-free, with the optimal finite-sample breakdown point 1/2. A finite-sample error bound and a matching information-theoretic minimax lower bound agree on the parametric rate sigma*sqrt(d/N) and differ on the breakdown floor by a factor of sqrt(d), a statistical-computational gap that polynomial-time RoPoLL pays relative to the intractable Tukey halfspace median. Across 13 open-weight judges (4B-675B), three reward-model benchmarks, and four corruption regimes at rates up to 50%, RoPoLL dominates PoLL on every biased corruption type: by about 19% on cross-dimensional attacks at matched compute, and by orders of magnitude on heavy-tailed Byzantine adversaries. A 3-judge RoPoLL committee at 38B beats Mistral-Large-3 (675B) by 1.31x on HelpSteer-2 under 30% bimodal-random corruption, an 18x parameter advantage at better accuracy; a Noisy-GT control confirms the premium is paid against biased contamination, not benign imprecision.

We develop a new, differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean. The main features of the balloon mean are that it is computationally tractable and enjoys robustness to outlying observations. It is based on an iterative clipping procedure over expanding Mahalanobis balls, or ``balloons.'' The method satisfies zero-concentrated differential privacy and depends on a small number of interpretable tuning parameters. We provide theoretical guarantees under heavy-tailed and contaminated elliptical models, characterizing its statistical performance and robustness to outliers. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the balloon mean is robust to heavy-tailed and contaminated data, and outperforms existing differentially private mean estimators in contaminated settings.

The $2 \rightarrow q$ norm of a matrix $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$ is defined as $\lVert X \rVert_{2 \rightarrow q} = \sup_{\lVert v \rVert_2 = 1} \lVert Xv \rVert_q$. We give polynomial-time multiplicative approximation algorithms for this norm when $q > 2$ (i.e. in the hypercontractive setting). This problem either directly captures or is closely related to long-standing open problems in combinatorial optimization and hardness of approximation (e.g. Small Set Expansion), quantum information (e.g. Best Separable State), and algorithmic statistics. Very little is known about what approximation factors we can achieve for this problem in polynomial time, even though such approximations have significant downstream consequences. Barak, Brandão, Harrow, Kelner, Steurer, and Zhou showed that no polynomial-time algorithm can achieve an approximation factor better than $2^{\sqrt{\log n}}$, assuming the Exponential Time Hypothesis (FOCS'12). On the other hand, a simple spectral algorithm gives a $d^{1/4}$-approximation as a baseline. We give, to the best of our knowledge, the first polynomial-time approximation algorithm beating this baseline by polynomial factors. For the important special case of $q = 4$ it achieves a $d^{1/8}$-approximation. All previous algorithms required additional assumptions on $X$, or only surpassed the baseline for small values of $n$. Moreover, we construct sum-of-squares certificates for the $2 \rightarrow q$ norm. This directly implies improved algorithms for robust mean and covariance estimation, robust regression, and clustering, when the data only satisfies a bound on its $q$-th moment.

Contrastive steering has been shown as a simple and effective method to adjust the generative behavior of LLMs at inference time. It uses examples of prompt responses with and without a trait to identify a direction in an intermediate activation layer, and then shifts activations in this 1-dimensional subspace. However, despite its growing use in AI safety applications, the robustness of contrastive steering to noisy or adversarial data corruption is poorly understood. We initiate a study of the robustness of this process with respect to corruption of the dataset of examples used to train the steering direction. Our first observation is that contrastive steering is quite robust to a moderate amount of corruption, but unwanted side effects can be clearly and maliciously manifested when a non-trivial fraction of the training data is altered. Second, we analyze the geometry of various types of corruption, and identify some safeguards. Notably, a key step in learning the steering direction involves high-dimensional mean computation, and we show that replacing this step with a recently developed robust mean estimator often mitigates most of the unwanted effects of malicious corruption.

We study the basic task of mean estimation in the presence of mean-shift contamination. In the mean-shift contamination model, an adversary is allowed to replace a small constant fraction of the clean samples by samples drawn from arbitrarily shifted versions of the base distribution. Prior work characterized the sample complexity of this task for the special cases of the Gaussian and Laplace distributions. Specifically, it was shown that consistent estimation is possible in these cases, a property that is provably impossible in Huber's contamination model. An open question posed in earlier work was to determine the sample complexity of mean estimation in the mean-shift contamination model for general base distributions. In this work, we study and essentially resolve this open question. Specifically, we show that, under mild spectral conditions on the characteristic function of the (potentially multivariate) base distribution, there exists a sample-efficient algorithm that estimates the target mean to any desired accuracy. We complement our upper bound with a qualitatively matching sample complexity lower bound. Our techniques make critical use of Fourier analysis, and in particular introduce the notion of a Fourier witness as an essential ingredient of our upper and lower bounds.

We study high-dimensional mean estimation in a collaborative setting where data is contributed by $N$ users in batches of size $n$. In this environment, a learner seeks to recover the mean $μ$ of a true distribution $P$ from a collection of sources that are both statistically heterogeneous and potentially malicious. We formalize this challenge through a double corruption landscape: an $\varepsilon$-fraction of users are entirely adversarial, while the remaining ``good'' users provide data from distributions that are related to $P$, but deviate by a proximity parameter $α$. Unlike existing work on the untrusted batch model, which typically measures this deviation via total variation distance in discrete settings, we address the continuous, high-dimensional regime under two natural variants for deviation: (1) good batches are drawn from distributions with a mean-shift of $\sqrtα$, or (2) an $α$-fraction of samples within each good batch are adversarially corrupted. In particular, the second model presents significant new challenges: in high dimensions, unlike discrete settings, even a small fraction of sample-level corruption can shift empirical means and covariances arbitrarily. We provide two Sum-of-Squares (SoS) based algorithms to navigate this tiered corruption. Our algorithms achieve the minimax-optimal error rate $O(\sqrt{\varepsilon/n} + \sqrt{d/nN} + \sqrtα)$, demonstrating that while heterogeneity $α$ represents an inherent statistical difficulty, the influence of adversarial users is suppressed by a factor of $1/\sqrt{n}$ due to the internal averaging afforded by the batch structure.