Sensitivity Analysis

The goal of machine learning is to find models that minimize prediction error on data that has not yet been seen. Its operational paradigm assumes access to a dataset $S$ and articulates a scheme for evaluating how well a given model performs on an arbitrary sample. The sample can be $S$ (in which case we speak of in-sample'' performance) or some entirely new $S'$ (in which case we speak of out-of-sample'' performance). Traditional analysis of generalization assumes that both in- and out-of-sample data are i.i.d.\ draws from an infinite population. However, these probabilistic assumptions cannot be verified even in principle. This paper presents an alternative view of generalization through the lens of sensitivity analysis of solutions of optimization problems to perturbations in the problem data. Under this framework, generalization bounds are obtained by purely deterministic means and take the form of variational principles that relate in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations through an error term that quantifies how close out-of-sample data are to in-sample data. Statistical assumptions can then be used ex post to characterize the situations when this error term is small (either on average or with high probability).

In uncertainty quantification, evaluating sensitivity measures under specific conditions (i.e., conditional Sobol' indices) is essential for systems with parameterized responses, such as spatial fields or varying operating conditions. Traditional approaches often rely on point-wise modeling, which is computationally expensive and may lack consistency across the parameter space. This paper demonstrates that for a pre-trained global Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) model, the analytical conditional Sobol' indices are inherently embedded within its basis functions. By leveraging the tensor-product property of PCE bases, we reformulate the global expansion into a set of analytical coefficient fields that depend on the conditioning variables. Based on the preservation of orthogonality under conditional probability measures, we derive closed-form expressions for conditional variances and Sobol' indices. This framework bypasses the need for repetitive modeling or additional sampling, transforming conditional sensitivity analysis into a purely algebraic post-processing step. Numerical benchmarks indicate that the proposed method ensures physical coherence and offers superior numerical robustness and computational efficiency compared to conventional point-wise approaches.

We introduce a natural displacement control for minimizer sets of oracle objectives equipped with certified epigraphic information. Formally, we replace the usual local uniform value control of objective perturbations - uncertifiable from finite pointwise information without additional structure - by the strictly weaker requirement of a cylinder-localized vertical epigraphic control, naturally provided by certified envelopes. Under set-based quadratic growth (allowing nonunique minimizers), this yields the classical square-root displacement estimate with optimal exponent 1/2, without any extrinsic assumption.

Systematic exploration of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is challenged by the curse of dimensionality and their inherent stochasticity. We present a multi-stage pipeline integrating the systematic design of experiments with machine learning surrogates. Using a predator-prey case study, our methodology proceeds in two steps. First, an automated model-based screening identifies dominant variables, assesses outcome variability, and segments the parameter space. Second, we train Machine Learning models to map the remaining nonlinear interaction effects. This approach automates the discovery of unstable regions where system outcomes are highly dependent on nonlinear interactions between many variables. Thus, this work provides modelers with a rigorous, hands-off framework for sensitivity analysis and policy testing, even when dealing with high-dimensional stochastic simulators.

Gaussian process surrogates dominate constrained multi-objective optimization because they are effective in data-scarce regimes, but their cubic scaling in training samples limits their ability to capture shared structure between objectives and constraints as problems grow in dimensionality. We show that deterministic neural network surrogates, equipped with feature tokenization and adaptive output normalization, match or exceed Gaussian process accuracy, while scaling to high-dimensional output spaces and training on all data including infeasible samples. Jointly training a single Feature Tokenizer Transformer to predict objectives, constraint satisfaction, and parameter sensitivities yields a unified gradient that simultaneously improves objective values, steers toward feasibility, and identifies the most influential parameters: a coherent search signal that disjoint per-output models cannot provide. We validate this on biophysical neural optimization problems of increasing complexity. In the hardest regime, with wide, uninformed parameter bounds where random sampling finds zero feasible solutions, descending the surrogate's learned constraint gradient steers the search into the feasible region and recovers near-optimal solutions where standard surrogate optimization and constrained Bayesian optimization find none.

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable bias. We propose a partial identification framework for causal stress testing in panel data with a continuous common treatment and no control group. By assuming that the unobserved confounder affects outcome and macro variables additively, we derive a closed-form confounding envelope parameterized by two interpretable sensitivity parameters. We further analyze two practical estimators -- recursive rollout and direct multi-horizon prediction -- derive non-asymptotic error bounds, and characterize when recursive compounding makes direct estimation preferable. For inference, we combine the identification envelope with importance-weighted conformal prediction, yielding finite-sample intervals that separate estimation uncertainty from identification uncertainty under covariate shift. In semi-synthetic experiments built from real U.S. unemployment paths, standard high-accuracy predictive models remain causally biased and substantially under-cover, whereas the proposed framework achieves near-nominal coverage across stress horizons.

We develop a sensitivity analysis for transformer attention in a geometry aligned with tokenwise computation. Our main result is the exact identity $\|J_τ(u)\|_{\infty\to1}=θ(p)/τ$ for the Jacobian $J_τ(u)$ of the tempered softmax $u\mapsto\mathrm{softmax}(u/τ)$, where $θ(p)=4\max_{S\subseteq[L]}p(S)(1-p(S))$ measures how evenly the attention distribution can be bisected rather than how concentrated it is. We combine this identity with a block-$\infty$/RMS norm under which row-stochastic attention mixing is nonexpansive. This yields a distribution-aware local Jacobian bound for multi-head attention and a sequence-length-independent Lipschitz bound on bounded input sets, with explicit dependence on width, input magnitude, temperature, and projection norms. We also identify a structural distinction between normalization placements: a pre-LN residual-sublayer Jacobian contains an additive identity term, whereas a post-LN residual-sublayer Jacobian does not. A LayerNorm projection lemma gives a sufficient condition under which the LayerNorm-only term in the post-LN expansion contracts geometrically; the condition is not tested by our experiments. Across three Pre-LN early-training runs of $774$M-parameter models, attention becomes substantially more concentrated while the median lower-bound certificate for $θ(p)$ remains near one at every sampled layer and checkpoint. This certifies near-maximal exact sensitivity for at least half of the sampled rows within each layer. A minority of rows enters a dominant-atom regime with lower exact sensitivity, consistent with the deterministic relationship between $p_{\max}$ and $θ(p)$.

Algorithmic audits are essential tools for examining systems for properties required by regulators or desired by operators. Current audits of large language models (LLMs) primarily rely on black-box evaluations that assess model behavior only through input-output testing. These methods are limited to tests constructed in the input space, often generated by heuristics. In addition, many socially relevant model properties (e.g., gender bias) are abstract and difficult to measure through text-based inputs alone. To address these limitations, we propose a white-box sensitivity auditing framework for LLMs that leverages activation steering to conduct more rigorous assessments through model internals. Our auditing method conducts internal sensitivity tests by manipulating key concepts relevant to the model's intended function for the task. We demonstrate its application to bias audits in four simulated high-stakes LLM decision tasks. Our method consistently indicates substantial dependence on protected attributes in model predictions, even in settings where standard black-box evaluations suggest little or no bias. Our code is openly available at https://github.com/hannahxchen/llm-steering-audit

Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and regulations based on incoming input data to produce the desired complex event. Complex events processing (CEP) uncertainty is critical for embedded and safety-critical systems. This paper exemplifies how we can measure uncertainty for the perception and prediction of events, encompassing embedded systems that can also be critical to safety. Then, we propose an approach (ML_CP) incorporating ML and sensitivity analysis that verifies how the output varies according to each input parameter. Furthermore, our model also measures the uncertainty associated with the predicted complex event. Therefore, we use conformal prediction to build prediction intervals, as the model itself has uncertainties, and the data has noise. Also, we tested our approach with classification (binary and multi-level) and regression problems test cases. Finally, we present and discuss our results, which are very promising within our field of research and work.