Time Series Foundation Models

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29 papers in the last four weeks, up 625% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models
Apr 30, 2026Matthias Hertel, Alexandra Nikoltchovska, Sebastian Pütz +3Accurate Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
Parameter-Efficient Adaptation of Pre-Trained Vision Foundation Models for Active and Passive Seismic Data Denoising
Apr 30, 2026Jiahua Zhao, Umair bin Waheed, Jing Sun +3Full Waveform Inversion Recent Vision Foundation Models
Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus · Department of Geosciences, College of Petroleum Engineering and Geosciences, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia · Department of Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands +2
FETS Benchmark: Foundation Models Outperform Dataset-specific Machine Learning in Energy Time Series Forecasting
Apr 24, 2026Marco Obermeier, Marco Pruckner, Florian Haselbeck +1Electricity Price Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models
Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Modeling and Simulation Lab, Am Hubland, Würzburg, 97074, Germany · Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Smart Farming, Am Staudengarten 1, Freising, 85354, Germany · Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Digital Energy Transition, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 3, Freising, 85354, Germany
ARFBench: Benchmarking Time Series Question Answering Ability for Software Incident Response
Apr 23, 2026Stephan Xie, Ben Cohen, Mononito Goswami +6Time Series Foundation Models Time Series
Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA · Datadog AI Research, New York, NY, USA · Amazon Web Services, Seattle, WA, USA
Adaptive Conformal Anomaly Detection with Time Series Foundation Models for Signal Monitoring
Apr 22, 2026Natalia Martinez Gil, Fearghal O'Donncha, Wesley M. Gifford +3Time-Series Anomaly Detection Time Series Foundation Models
IBM Research
Barrier-enforced multi-objective optimization for direct point and sharp interval forecasting
Apr 20, 2026Worachit Amnuaypongsa, Yotsapat Suparanonrat, Pana Wanitchollakit +1Probabilistic Forecasting Energy Forecasting
Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand · Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecasting
Apr 20, 2026Firat Ozdemir, Yun Cheng, Salman Mohebi +11Time Series Foundation Models Global Climate Models
Swiss Data Science Center (SDSC), ETH Zurich & EPFL, Zurich & Lausanne, Switzerland · ETH AI Center, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland +1
In-Context Learning Under Regime Change
Apr 18, 2026Carson Dudley, Yutong Bi, Xiaofeng Liu +1Time Series Foundation Models Change-Point Detection
Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan · Michigan Institute for AI and Data in Society, University of Michigan
TimeRFT: Stimulating Generalizable Time Series Forecasting for TSFMs via Reinforcement Finetuning
Apr 18, 2026Siyang Li, Yize Chen, Zijie Zhu +4Time Series Foundation Models Time Series Forecasting
HKUST(GZ) Guangzhou, China · University of Alberta Edmonton, Canada · Alibaba Cloud Guangzhou, China +3
Assessing the Performance-Efficiency Trade-off of Foundation Models in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting
Apr 16, 2026Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Veit Hagenmeyer +1Electricity Price Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology · Karlsruhe, Germany
TempusBench: An Evaluation Framework for Time-Series Forecasting
Apr 13, 2026Denizalp Goktas, Gerardo Riaño-Briceño, Omkar Tekawade +14Time Series Foundation Models
Simulacrum New York City, NY, USA
A Foundation Model for Instruction-Conditioned In-Context Time Series Tasks
Mar 23, 2026Anish Saha, Konstantin ShmakovTime Series Foundation Models In-Context Learning
Walmart Sunnyvale, USA
Universal Redundancies in Time Series Foundation Models
Feb 2, 2026Anthony Bao, Venkata Hasith Vattikuti, Jeffrey Lai +1Time Series Foundation Models Wireless Foundation Models
ECE Department, UT Austin · Department of Physics, UT Austin · Oden Institute, UT Austin
Time Series Foundation Models for Process Model Forecasting
Dec 8, 2025Yongbo Yu, Jari Peeperkorn, Johannes De Smedt +1Time Series Foundation Models Time Series
Research Center for Information Systems Engineering (LIRIS), KU Leuven, Belgium
Foundation vs. Specialized Models: Evaluating Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Time Series Forecasting
Oct 1, 2025Nouha Karaouli, Denis Coquenet, Elisa Fromont +2Time Series Foundation Models Catastrophic Forgetting
Univ. Rennes, CNRS, Inria, IRISA - UMR 6074, F-35000 Rennes, France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LPNC, Grenoble, France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CEA, LIST, 38000 Grenoble, France
Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Models
Sep 30, 2025Kun Feng, Shaocheng Lan, Yuchen Fang +6Time Series Foundation Models Timestep Embeddings
School of Information Science and Technology, ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China · Ant Group, Shanghai, China
Unlocking Pretrained Vision Transformers for Time Series Classification
Jun 10, 2025Simon Roschmann, Quentin Bouniot, Vasilii Feofanov +2Time-Series Classification Time Series Foundation Models
Helmholtz Munich · Technical University of Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning +2
ChronoSteer: Bridging Large Language Model and Time Series Foundation Model via Synthetic Cross-Modal Alignment Dataset
May 15, 2025Chengsen Wang, Qi Qi, Zhongwen Rao +2Zero-Shot Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications · Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab
Mantis: Lightweight Foundation Model for Time Series Classification
Feb 21, 2025Vasilii Feofanov, Songkang Wen, Shifeng Xie +10Time Series Foundation Models Time-Series Classification
1. Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab · 3. Paris Cit´e University · 4. Helmholtz Munich +3

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Explainable Load Forecasting with Covariate-Informed Time Series Foundation Models

Matthias Hertel, Alexandra Nikoltchovska, Sebastian Pütz, Ralf Mikut+2

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Accurate Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models Shapley Additive Explanations Time Series Transformer Architectures Transmission

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Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require transparency to ensure trust and reliability and cannot rely on pure black-box models. To enhance the transparency of TSFMs, we propose an efficient algorithm for computing Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tailored to these models. The proposed approach leverages the flexibility of TSFMs with respect to input context length and provided covariates. This property enables efficient temporal and covariate masking (selectively withholding inputs), allowing for a scalable explanation of model predictions using SHAP. We evaluate two TSFMs - Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS - on a day-ahead load forecasting task for a transmission system operator (TSO). In a zero-shot setting, both models achieve predictive performance competitive with a Transformer model trained specifically on multiple years of TSO data. The explanations obtained through our proposed approach align with established domain knowledge, particularly as the TSFMs appropriately use weather and calendar information for load prediction. Overall, we demonstrate that TSFMs can serve as transparent and reliable tools for operational energy forecasting.

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