User Simulation

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

User simulators are increasingly leveraged to build interactive AI assistants, yet how to measure the quality of these simulators remains an open question. In this work, we show how simulator quality can be quantified in terms of its downstream utility: how an LLM assistant trained with this user simulator performs in the wild when interacting with real humans. In a controlled experiment where only the user simulator varies, we train LLM assistants via reinforcement learning against a spectrum of simulators, from an LLM prompted to role-play a user to one fine-tuned on human utterances from WildChat. As evaluation, we measure pairwise win rates in a user study with 283 participants and on WildBench, a benchmark derived from real human--AI conversations. Training against the role-playing LLM yields an assistant statistically indistinguishable from the initial assistant in our user study (51% win rate), whereas training against the fine-tuned simulator yields significant gains (58% over the initial and 57% over the one trained against role-playing). Closer inspection reveals three further patterns: methods for making role-playing LLMs more realistic (e.g., persona conditioning) improve trained assistants but do not close the gap to the fine-tuned simulator; scaling the simulator's model size benefits the fine-tuned simulator but yields no gain for role-playing ones; and assistants trained against role-playing simulators fail to generalize when paired with other simulators at test time, while the one trained against fine-tuned simulator does. Together, these results argue for grounding user simulators in real human behavior and measuring their quality by their downstream effect on real users.

LLM agents are increasingly used to simulate real world interactions, but it remains unclear whether simulated behaviors preserve the content patterns and interaction dynamics of real human behaviors. Existing evaluations remain fragmented, which makes it difficult to compare systems or measure progress. In this paper, we focus on Reddit discussions as a concrete first step toward evaluating real-world social simulation. Reddit threads provide public, topic-grounded, multi-party interactions where people share experiences, debate, seek advice, express emotion, and collectively respond to products, events, and social issues. These discussions offer an observable window into broader social behavior, making them a useful setting for testing whether LLM agents can reproduce not only fluent text, but also the distributional patterns and interaction dynamics of real online communities. We introduce MiroBench, a benchmark for Reddit discussion simulation built from 4,292 real Reddit threads. MiroBench uses statistical tests to compare generated and real discussions across four major aspects: repetition and semantic uniformity, narrative content, toxicity and aggression, and structural complexity. Experiments across five domains and five models show that current simulators remain distributionally mismatched with real Reddit threads, while a lightweight prompt-based improvement procedure provides only limited gains. MiroBench offers a concrete benchmark for measuring, diagnosing, and improving realism in LLM-based social simulation.

We present SalesSim, a framework and testbed for evaluating the ability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to simulate realistic, persona-driven customer behavior in multi-turn, multi-modal, tool-augmented online retail conversations. Unlike prior work that treat user simulation as surface-level dialogue generation, SalesSim models retail interaction and decision-making as a grounded, agentic process, where shoppers with diverse backgrounds, preferences, and dealbreakers interact with a sales agent, seek clarifications, and make informed purchasing decisions. For evaluation, we design a suite of metrics centered on decision alignment, measuring the consistency between the simulator's actions and its persona specifications, as well as conversational quality. We find several behavioral gaps after benchmarking 6 open and closed-source state-of-the-art models. First, while models produce fluent conversations, they display significantly lower lexical diversity and overdisclosure of criteria across personas compared to human conversations. Second, models tend to be persuaded by sales agent suggestions and drift from persona specifications. Even the strongest model achieves less than 79% average alignment with its underlying persona specifications. To make progress on these limitations, we propose UserGRPO, a multi-turn, multi-objective reinforcement learning recipe to optimize both conversational fluency and decision alignment under persona specifications. Our experiments demonstrate that UserGRPO boosts decision alignment of the baseline model by 13.8% while improving conversational quality. By introducing SalesSim, we provide a new testbed for the community to investigate and improve the adherence of user simulators in goal-oriented settings.

As user simulators are increasingly used for interactive training and evaluation of AI assistants, it is essential that they represent the diverse behaviors of real users. While existing works train user simulators to generate human-like responses, whether they capture the broad and heterogeneous distribution of real user behaviors remains an open question. In this work, we introduce a method to measure the distributional gap between real and simulated user behaviors, validated through a human study and ablations. Given a dataset of real and simulated conversations, our method extracts representations of user behavior from each conversation, quantizes them into discrete distributions via clustering, then computes divergence metrics. We provide the first systematic evaluation of 24 LLM-based user simulators on coding and writing tasks, and reveal a large distributional gap from real users that varies across model families, scales, and behavioral facets. Pairwise comparisons show that most simulators behave similarly, while a few stand apart. Combining behaviorally complementary simulators brings the resulting distribution closer to real users compared to either simulator on its own. Finally, a TF-IDF analysis of the clusters surfaces interpretable patterns of behaviors that simulators capture, miss, and hallucinate.

Conversational recommender systems (CRSs) are a core component of next-generation intelligent recommender systems because they enable users to actively elicit preferences, clarify intentions, and adapt recommendations in real time. However, there are two key obstacles in the CRS domain: evaluation and access to training data. Evaluating CRSs through real human studies is more critical than for traditional recommender systems, yet such studies are both costly and time-consuming. Moreover, CRS interaction data are often difficult to obtain for model training due to privacy concerns. Large language model (LLM)-based user simulators have shown promise in addressing both challenges by generating synthetic user interactions for evaluation and training. However, existing approaches suffer from systematic positive bias, data leakage, and limited behavioral diversity, and they rely on brittle manual prompt engineering that requires extensive domain expertise. In this paper, we propose a framework to automatically optimize prompts for LLM-based user simulators in CRSs, simultaneously mitigating these issues. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves improved behavioral alignment with human interaction patterns compared to baseline methods across diverse prompt settings.

Conversational recommender systems (CRS) increasingly rely on user simulators for automated evaluation of sales agents. A key requirement for such simulators is the ability to model human decision-making. However, most existing simulation frameworks do not explicitly model the internal decision process, and LLM-based simulators often exhibit unrealistically strong information-processing capabilities, rarely exhibit the hesitation or decision deferral commonly observed in real consumer behavior, resulting in overly high acceptance probabilities. To address this limitation, we propose Hesitator, a theory-grounded user simulation framework that explicitly models human decision-making under choice overload. The framework introduces a modular Decision Module that separates utility-based item selection from overload-aware commitment decisions. Experiments across multiple user simulation frameworks, domains, sales modes, and LLM backbones show that integrating our module consistently mitigates unrealistic behaviors under increasing overload conditions. Furthermore, Hesitator reproduces established behavioral patterns from psychological economics, demonstrating its ability to model human decision behavior.

There is growing interest in exploring user simulation as an alternative to gathering and scoring real user-chatbot interactions for AI chatbot evaluation. For this purpose, it is important to ensure the realism of the simulation, i.e., the extent to which simulated dialogues reflect real dialogues users have with chatbots. Most existing methods evaluating simulation realism produce coarse quality signal and remain solely at the level of individual dialogues. To support more rigorous evaluation in this area, we propose realsim, an evaluation framework that enables practitioners to take a distributional view of real vs. simulated dialogues along 8 dimensions, covering attributes related to the communicative functions of the interaction, user states, and the surface form of user messages. We then instantiate the framework with a curated dataset of 1K multi-turn task-focused real user-chatbot dialogues that cover 16 domains of chatbot applications. Overall, we find that simulated users tend to struggle at capturing communication frictions that real users introduce to interactions, which could make evaluations based on such simulations overly optimistic. We also observe variability in performance across different domains, which may indicate a need for domain-specific user simulators.

Political parties strive to understand their electorates, and focus groups are a vital tool in these efforts. AI-enhanced simulation technologies (AESTs) enable synthetic focus groups in a fraction of the time (and cost), raising the question of when and how such simulated evidence can be used in campaign research. This paper develops a decision matrix to help party strategists match research needs to appropriate simulation technologies and to identify when to escalate to hybrid or fully human focus groups. The matrix combines three dimensions: strategic purpose, deployment risk, and empirical grounding of the simulation tool. Strategic purpose is the decisive dimension, as it determines what kind of evidence the focus group is meant to produce: observing how political meanings and identities emerge through interaction (Mode 1) or testing and refining campaign messages (Mode 2). The matrix shows that, given documented failure modes such as sycophancy, persona drift, and the suppression of minority viewpoints, AESTs cannot replace human interaction in Mode 1 at any risk level. Within Mode 2, suitability depends instead on deployment risk and on the empirical grounding. Yet even here, we caution that routine reliance on AESTs may erode the qualitative craft on which sound judgment depends.

Patient simulators are gaining traction in mental health training by providing scalable exposure to complex and sensitive patient interactions. Simulating depressed patients is challenging, as safety constraints and high patient variability complicate simulations and underscore the need for simulators that capture diverse and realistic patient behaviors. However, existing evaluations heavily rely on LLM-judges with poorly specified prompts and do not assess behavioral diversity. We introduce PSI-Bench, an automatic evaluation framework that provides interpretable, clinically meaningful diagnostics of depression patient simulator behavior across turn-, dialogue-, and population-level dimensions. Using PSI-Bench, we benchmark seven LLMs across two simulator frameworks and find that simulators produce overly long, lexically diverse responses, show reduced variability, and move through therapeutic stages and toward positive valence too quickly. We also show that the simulation framework has a larger impact on fidelity than the model scale. Results from a human study demonstrate that our benchmark is strongly aligned with judgments of mental health professionals. Our work reveals key limitations of current depression patient simulators and provides an interpretable, extensible benchmark to guide future simulator design and evaluation.

User simulation has long played a vital role in computer science due to its potential to support a wide range of applications. Language, as the primary medium of human communication, forms the foundation of social interaction and behavior. Consequently, simulating conversational behavior has become a key area of study. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have significantly catalyzed progress in this domain by enabling high-fidelity generation of synthetic user conversation. In this paper, we survey recent advancements in LLM-based conversational user simulation. We introduce a novel taxonomy covering user granularity and simulation objectives. Additionally, we systematically analyze core techniques and evaluation methodologies. We aim to keep the research community informed of the latest advancements in conversational user simulation and to further facilitate future research by identifying open challenges and organizing existing work under a unified framework.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as customer-facing agents, yet evaluating their reliability remains challenging due to stochastic, multi-turn interactions. Current evaluation protocols rely on linear Monte Carlo rollouts of complete agent-user conversations to estimate success. However, this approach is computationally inefficient, repeatedly regenerating identical early prefixes, and often fails to uncover deep failure modes that arise from rare user behaviors. We introduce DIVERT (Diversity-Induced Evaluation via Branching of Trajectories), an efficient, snapshot-based, coverage-guided user simulation framework for systematic exploration of agent-user interactions. DIVERT captures the full agent-environment state at critical decision points and resumes execution from these snapshots, enabling reuse of shared conversation prefixes and reducing redundant computation. From each junction, the framework branches using targeted, diversity-inducing user responses, allowing directed exploration of alternative interaction paths. By focusing evaluation on semantically diverse and underexplored trajectories, DIVERT improves both efficiency and coverage. Empirical results show that it discovers more failures per token compared to standard linear rollout protocols, while expanding the set of tasks on which failures are identified.

Simulating group-level user behavior enables scalable counterfactual evaluation of merchant strategies without costly online experiments. However, building a trustworthy simulator faces two structural challenges. First, information incompleteness causes reasoning-based simulators to over-rationalize when unobserved factors such as offline context and implicit habits are missing. Second, mechanism duality requires capturing both interpretable preferences and implicit statistical regularities, which no single paradigm achieves alone. We propose Policy-Guided Hybrid Simulation (PGHS), a dual-process framework that mines transferable decision policies from behavioral trajectories and uses them as a shared alignment layer. This layer anchors an LLM-based reasoning branch that prevents over-rationalization and an ML-based fitting branch that absorbs implicit regularities. Group-level predictions from both branches are fused for complementary correction. We deploy PGHS on Meituan with 101 merchants and over 26,000 trajectories. PGHS achieves a group simulation error of 8.80%, improving over the best reasoning-based and fitting-based baselines by 45.8% and 40.9% respectively.

Robust voice agents require exposure to the full diversity of how people interact through speech. However, obtaining enough spoken interactions is prohibitively expensive. Building spoken user simulators that address this requires large-scale spoken task-oriented dialogue (TOD) data encompassing spoken user behaviors, yet existing datasets are limited in scale and domain coverage, with no systematic pipeline for augmenting them. To address this, we introduce SpokenTOD, a spoken TOD dataset of 52,390 dialogues and 1,034 hours of speech augmented with four spoken user behaviors---cross-turn slots, barge-in, disfluency, and emotional prosody---across diverse speakers and domains. Building on SpokenTOD, we present SpokenUS, a spoken user simulator grounded in TOD that decides when to speak through a dedicated turn-taking head. SpokenUS achieves comparable goal coverage to much larger models while substantially outperforming all baselines in human MOS, disclosing slot values gradually across the dialogue as humans do rather than front-loading them. Further analysis confirms that SpokenUS's spoken behaviors pose meaningful challenges to voice agents, making it a practical tool for evaluating more robust spoken dialogue systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/holi-lab/SpokenUS.

Task-oriented proactive dialogue agents play a pivotal role in recruitment, particularly for steering conversations towards specific business outcomes, such as acquiring social-media contacts for private-channel conversion. Although supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning have proven effective for training such agents, their performance is heavily constrained by the scarcity of high-quality, goal-oriented domain-specific training data. To address this challenge, we propose SimRPD, a three-stage framework for training recruitment proactive dialogue agents. First, we develop a high-fidelity user simulator to synthesize large-scale conversational data through multi-turn online dialogue. Then we introduce a multi-dimensional evaluation framework based on Chain-of-Intention (CoI) to comprehensively assess the simulator and effectively select high-quality data, incorporating both global-level and instance-level metrics. Finally, we train the recruitment proactive dialogue agent on the selected dataset. Experiments in a real-world recruitment scenario demonstrate that SimRPD outperforms existing simulator-based data selection strategies, highlighting its practical value for industrial deployment and its potential applicability to other business-oriented dialogue scenarios.

Evaluating Artificial Intelligence (AI) tutor feedback before deployment requires anticipating student engagement, typically assessed through real interaction data. We introduce ParaStudent, a fine-tuning framework for simulating novice programming revisions to support AI tutor evaluation. Compared with prompted baselines, ParaStudent's revisions more closely match real student code distributions across functional, stylistic, and semantic metrics. Our best variant achieves AUCs of 0.80 for both feedback relevance and successful uptake when distinguishing streams with real engagement above versus at or below the median, while prompted baselines remain near chance on successful uptake. These findings demonstrate the promise of simulated engagement for pre-deployment feedback triage.