Is it possible to understand the intricacies of a dynamical system not solely from its input/output pattern, but also by observing the behavior of other systems within the same class? This central question drives the study presented in this paper. In response to this query, we introduce a novel paradigm for system identification, addressing two primary tasks: one-step-ahead prediction and multi-step simulation. Unlike conventional methods, we do not directly estimate a model for the specific system. Instead, we learn a meta model that represents a class of dynamical systems. This meta model is trained on a potentially infinite stream of synthetic data, generated by simulators whose settings are randomly extracted from a probability distribution. When provided with a context from a new system-specifically, an input/output sequence-the meta model implicitly discerns its dynamics, enabling predictions of its behavior. The proposed approach harnesses the power of Transformers, renowned for their \emph{in-context learning} capabilities. For one-step prediction, a GPT-like decoder-only architecture is utilized, whereas the simulation problem employs an encoder-decoder structure. Initial experimental results affirmatively answer our foundational question, opening doors to fresh research avenues in system identification.
Identifying linear time-invariant (LTI) dynamical systems is challenging when trajectories are short, noisy, or high-dimensional. Traditional system identification typically treats each system independently and cannot exploit shared structure across related systems. We propose PBML-LTI, a PAC-Bayesian meta-learning framework for few-shot LTI system identification that learns a transferable prior over task-specific dynamics while preserving task heterogeneity. Each task corresponds to an unknown LTI system, and the meta-learner uses training trajectories to learn a data-dependent prior over transition matrices. For a new system with limited data, PBML-LTI performs Bayesian adaptation under this prior to obtain a task-specific posterior, providing accurate estimates and principled uncertainty quantification. A key challenge is temporal dependence, since LTI trajectories violate the i.i.d. assumptions underlying most PAC-Bayes meta-learning analyses. We address this with a martingale PAC-Bayes analysis for dependent trajectory losses and derive a support-query predictive-risk bound that motivates a fit-KL meta-training objective. The bound clarifies the roles of empirical fit, posterior complexity, and prior quality in few-shot adaptation under sequential dependence. We further derive corollaries for transition-matrix recovery and multi-step trajectory prediction, connecting uncertainty-aware meta-identification with finite-sample guarantees for dependent dynamical data.
System identification (SysID) is critical for modeling dynamical systems from experimental data, yet traditional approaches often fail to capture nonlinear behaviors. While deep learning offers powerful tools for modeling such dynamics, incorporating uncertainty quantification is essential to ensure reliable predictions. This paper presents a systematic framework for constructing and training interval Neural Networks (INNs) for uncertainty-aware SysID. By extending crisp neural networks into interval counterparts, we develop Interval LSTM and NODE models that propagate uncertainty through interval arithmetic without probabilistic assumptions. This design allows them to represent uncertainty and produce prediction intervals. For training, we propose two strategies: Cascade INN (C-INN), a two-stage approach converting a trained crisp NN into an INN, and Joint INN (J-INN), a one-stage framework jointly optimizing prediction accuracy and interval precision. Both strategies employ uncertainty-aware loss functions and parameterization tricks to ensure reliable learning. Comprehensive experiments on multiple SysID datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of both approaches and benchmark their performance against well-established uncertainty-aware baselines: C-INN achieves superior point prediction accuracy, whereas J-INN yields more accurate and better-calibrated prediction intervals. Furthermore, to reveal how uncertainty is represented across model parameters, the concept of channel-wise elasticity is introduced, which is used to identify distinct patterns across the two training strategies. The results of this study demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively integrates deep learning with uncertainty-aware modeling.
Estimating parameters of dynamical systems from sparse, noisy, and irregularly sampled data is often severely ill-conditioned. When multiple related datasets are available, they provide additional information if the shared structure and variability are properly modeled. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian framework for probabilistic meta-learning in dynamical systems, modeling dataset-specific parameters as draws from a shared population distribution. A numerical ODE solver is embedded within gradient-based MCMC to enable efficient posterior inference of the shared population and dataset-specific parameter distribution. Experiments show improved predictive performance over unpooled methods, highlighting the potential for data-efficient system identification in settings with sparse data.
Cristian Brugnara, Lea Multerer, Marco Forgione +1