GUARD: Sensitivity-aware Uncertainty Attribution for Safe Traditional and Learning-based Robot Control

Most uncertainty-aware robotic systems collapse prediction uncertainty into a single scalar score and use it to trigger uniform corrective responses. This aggregation obscures whether uncertainty arises from corrupted observations or from mismatch between the learned model and the true system dynamics. As a result, corrective actions may be applied to the wrong component of the closed loop, degrading performance relative to leaving the policy unchanged. We introduce a lightweight post hoc framework that decomposes uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components and uses these signals to regulate system responses at inference time. Aleatoric uncertainty is estimated from deviations in the observation distribution using a Mahalanobis density model, while epistemic uncertainty is detected using a noise robust forward dynamics ensemble that isolates model mismatch from measurement corruption. The two signals remain empirically near orthogonal during closed loop execution and enable type specific responses. High aleatoric uncertainty triggers observation recovery, while high epistemic uncertainty moderates control actions. The same signals also regulate adaptive perception by guiding model capacity selection during tracking inference. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements across both control and perception tasks. In robotic manipulation, the decomposed controller improves task success from 59.4% to 80.4% under compound perturbations and outperforms a combined uncertainty baseline by up to 21.0%. In adaptive tracking inference on MOT17, uncertainty-guided model selection reduces average compute by 58.2% relative to a fixed high capacity detector while preserving detection quality within 0.4%. Code and demo videos are available at https://divake.github.io/uncertainty-decomposition/.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a principled framework for robot decision-making under uncertainty. Solving reach-avoid POMDPs, however, requires coordinating three distinct behaviors: goal reaching, safety, and active information gathering to reduce uncertainty. Existing online POMDP solvers attempt to address all three within a single belief tree search, but this unified approach struggles with the conflicting time scales inherent to these objectives. We propose a layered, certificate-based control architecture that operates directly in belief space, decoupling goal reaching, information gathering, and safety into modular components. We introduce Belief Control Lyapunov Functions (BCLFs) that formalize information gathering as a Lyapunov convergence problem in belief space, and show how they can be learned via reinforcement learning. For safety, we develop Belief Control Barrier Functions (BCBFs) that leverage conformal prediction to provide probabilistic safety guarantees over finite horizons. The resulting control synthesis reduces to lightweight quadratic programs solvable in real time, even for non-Gaussian belief representations with dimension $>10^4$. Experiments in simulation and on a space-robotics platform demonstrate real-time performance and improved safety and task success compared to state-of-the-art constrained POMDP solvers.

Planning safe trajectories under model uncertainty is a fundamental challenge. Robust planning ensures safety by considering worst-case realizations, yet ignores uncertainty reduction and leads to overly conservative behavior. Actively reducing uncertainty on-the-fly during a nominal mission defines the dual control problem. Most approaches address this by adding a weighted exploration term to the cost, tuned to trade off the nominal objective and uncertainty reduction, but without formal consideration of when exploration is beneficial. Moreover, safety is enforced in some methods but not in others. We study a budget-constrained dual control problem, where uncertainty is reduced subject to safety and a mission-level cost budget that limits the allowable degradation in task performance due to exploration. In this work, we propose Dual-gatekeeper, a framework that integrates robust planning with active exploration under formal guarantees of safety and budget feasibility. The key idea is that exploration is pursued only when it provides a verifiable improvement without compromising safety or violating the budget, enabling the system to balance immediate task performance with long-term uncertainty reduction in a principled manner. We provide two implementations of the framework based on different safety mechanisms and demonstrate its performance on quadrotor navigation and autonomous car racing case studies under parametric uncertainty.