Driving is a Game: Combining Planning and Prediction with Bayesian Iterative Best Response
Authors: Aron Distelzweig, Yiwei Wang, Faris Janjoš, Marcel Hallgarten, Mihai Dobre, Alexander Langmann, Joschka Boedecker, Johannes Betz
Abstract
Autonomous driving planning systems perform nearly perfectly in routine scenarios using lightweight, rule-based methods but still struggle in dense urban traffic, where lane changes and merges require anticipating and influencing other agents. Modern motion predictors offer highly accurate forecasts, yet their integration into planning is mostly rudimental: discarding unsafe plans. Similarly, end-to-end models offer a one-way integration that avoids the challenges of joint prediction and planning modeling under uncertainty. In contrast, game-theoretic formulations offer a principled alternative but have seen limited adoption in autonomous driving. We present Bayesian Iterative Best Response (BIBeR), a framework that unifies motion prediction and game-theoretic planning into a single interaction-aware process. BIBeR is the first to integrate a state-of-the-art predictor into an Iterative Best Response (IBR) loop, repeatedly refining the strategies of the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This repeated best-response process approximates a Nash equilibrium, enabling bidirectional adaptation where the ego both reacts to and shapes the behavior of others. In addition, our proposed Bayesian confidence estimation quantifies prediction reliability and modulates update strength, more conservative under low confidence and more decisive under high confidence. BIBeR is compatible with modern predictors and planners, combining the transparency of structured planning with the flexibility of learned models. Experiments show that BIBeR achieves an 11% improvement over state-of-the-art planners on highly interactive interPlan lane-change scenarios, while also outperforming existing approaches on standard nuPlan benchmarks.
End-to-end autonomous driving planners typically generate trajectories from current observations alone. However, real-world driving is highly dynamic, and such reactive planning cannot anticipate future scene evolution, often leading to myopic decisions and safety-critical failures. We propose ProDrive, a world-model-based proactive planning framework that enables ego-environment co-evolution for autonomous driving. ProDrive jointly trains a query-centric trajectory planner and a bird's-eye-view (BEV) world model end-to-end: the planner generates diverse candidate trajectories and planning-aware ego tokens, while the world model predicts future scene evolution conditioned on them. By injecting planner features into the world model and evaluating all candidates in parallel, ProDrive preserves end-to-end gradient flow and allows future outcome assessment to directly shape planning. This bidirectional coupling enables proactive planning beyond current-observation-driven decision-making. Experiments on NAVSIM v1 show that ProDrive outperforms strong baselines in both safety and planning efficiency, while ablations validate the effectiveness of the proposed ego-environment coupling design.
Robust motion planning in dense traffic requires autonomous vehicles to interact in rare and safety-critical scenarios that are underrepresented in naturalistic driving data. Although adversarial training offers a feasible solution, existing methods often rely on external scenario generators, heuristic perturbations, or simulator-heavy rollouts, which makes them difficult to integrate with modern autoregressive planners. Here, we cast adversarially robust planner learning as a constrained min-max game and propose Adversarial World Modeling (AWM), a theoretically grounded multi-agent self-play fine-tuning framework. Since solving the exact game is intractable, AWM introduces a principled decoupled solver. In the inner minimization, the planner's predictive world model is converted into a role-conditioned adversary that learns sparse, scene-adaptive attack coalitions via counterfactual credit assignment. In the outer maximization, the ego planner optimizes a regret-aware robust best response against the frozen AWM, utilizing tail-risk weighting and reference-anchored trust regions to improve hard-case recovery while preserving nominal driving behavior. Experiments on the nuPlan and InterPlan benchmarks demonstrate that our method generates transferable adversarial interactions and yields a robust planner that achieves competitive closed-loop performance in both nominal and highly interactive long-tail scenarios. Theoretical analysis justifies the decoupled solver and the main optimization components.
End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a compelling paradigm for learning planning directly from sensor observations, while recent world-model-based approaches further enrich this paradigm by enabling explicit reasoning about how the scene may evolve in the future. Yet future prediction alone does not guarantee better planning unless the predicted evolution can be converted into planning-relevant trajectory updates. Many current methods still forecast future scene states without explicitly decoding the motion implications hidden in state transitions. As a result, future reasoning often remains descriptively useful but only weakly coupled to executable motion generation. To address this limitation, we propose \mathbf{IDOL}, an inverse-dynamics-guided future prediction framework for world-model-based end-to-end planning in latent BEV space, where inverse dynamics serves as the key bridge between future prediction and trajectory optimization. IDOL first predicts multiple future latent scene states with a BEV world model, then applies an inverse dynamics model to adjacent latent futures to decode transition-aware trajectory features and recover planning-relevant motion deltas that explain how the latent world evolves over time. These inverse-dynamics-derived signals are used to optimize the planned trajectory, turning future forecasting from passive scene anticipation into actionable planning guidance. A lightweight closed-loop refinement module further improves long-horizon consistency by reusing the optimized trajectory for another round of future-aware reasoning. By introducing inverse dynamics into latent future reasoning, IDOL tightens the coupling between world modeling and planning. Extensive experiments on the NAVSIM v1 and NAVSIM v2 benchmarks show that IDOL achieves state-of-the-art performance among comparable methods.