Black-box AI (BBAI) systems, including foundation-model agents, are increasingly used for sequential decision making. Safe deployment requires methods for characterizing what such systems can do, when they can do it, and what outcomes may result. We introduce Monte Carlo Query Synthesis (MCQS), an active query-synthesis method for learning symbolic stochastic capability models of BBAIs. MCQS models capabilities as conditional probability distributions over outcomes and formulates capability learning as an active learning problem over policies. Our approach uses Monte Carlo tree search to synthesize queries that induce BBAI execution trajectories with high discriminative value between extremal hypothesis models: the lattice meet and join corresponding to the most pessimistic and optimistic hypotheses consistent with the observations. Executing these queries with the agent yields information-rich state-action trajectories that speed up learning by pruning inconsistent hypotheses. We prove soundness, completeness, and convergence properties under standard realizability and sampling assumptions. Experiments with multiple BBAI systems show that MCQS learns accurate capability models more efficiently than baseline query strategies.
LLM agents operate in two distinct regimes: open-weight agents amenable to reinforcement learning (RL) and black-box agents whose behaviour must be controlled purely at test time. Although black-box agents are often backed by state-of-the-art proprietary LLMs, API-only access precludes parameter-level optimization, rendering most RL methods inapplicable. To address this limitation, we turn to a known equivalence between RL and Bayesian inference. We propose Agentic Monte Carlo (AMC) to directly sample from the optimal policy of a black-box agent rather than training it through RL. The optimal policy is a posterior over trajectories whose prior we define as the fixed black-box LLM agent. We employ Sequential Monte Carlo to sample from this posterior by learning a value function to steer the agent while leaving the underlying black-box model unchanged. We validate AMC on three diverse environments from the AgentGym benchmark, demonstrating significant improvements over prompting baselines and even outperforming Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) as we scale the test-time compute of our method. AMC demonstrates the feasibility of performing principled RL-style optimization of black-box LLM agents. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/Agentic-Monte-Carlo
Dae Yon Hwang, Raunaq Suri, Valentin Villecroze +4
Multi-step search is a fundamental capability for search agents, enabling them to iteratively acquire, refine, and integrate external evidence for complex reasoning QA. However, vanilla GRPO allocates rewards exclusively based on the model's final outputs, yielding outcome-only supervision with no supervisory signals for intermediate reasoning steps. Such sparse supervision easily causes training instability and redundant search behaviors on multi-step search tasks. To mitigate this limitation, we adopt process reward to deliver stepwise supervision signals. For this process reward, we propose two complementary criteria to judge each search step: whether the step yields new evidence to facilitate problem solving, and whether it forms an efficient, pivotal intermediate decision within the overall reasoning trajectory. Building on this insight, we propose BiCAA: a bidirectional credit assignment framework that delivers dense, distinguishing process rewards for search-augmented agents. BiCAA builds bidirectional process rewards by fusing two complementary signals: forward solvability gain and hindsight success criticality. The former quantifies step-wise improvements in answer plausibility, while the latter evaluates each step's necessity for final success via hindsight outcome-based criticality scoring. We modulate and aggregate the two signals and then fuse them with the outcome reward. Experiments on search-augmented QA benchmarks show that BiCAA stabilizes policy optimization, reduces redundant search behavior, and achieves competitive performance.
Causal discovery through experimentation and intervention is fundamental to robust problem solving. It requires not just updating beliefs within a fixed framework but revising the hypothesis space itself, a capacity current AI agents lack when evidence demands representations they have not previously constructed. We extend the blicket detector paradigm from developmental science to test this capacity in AI agents equipped with architectural scaffolding that targets hypothesis-space restructuring. Our compositional architecture has two discrete components: context graphs, which structure exploration as typed state machines, and dynamic behaviors, which monitor for evidence that the current hypothesis space is inadequate and expand it at runtime. Across 1,085 experimental trials, these components make orthogonal contributions: context graphs drive reasoning quality within the post-switch hypothesis space, accounting for 94% of the accuracy gain, while dynamic behaviors drive reasoning eligibility by detecting regime changes and preventing premature commitment to outdated hypotheses.