Effects of Property Recovery Incentives and Social Interaction on Self-Evacuation Decisions in Natural Disasters: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Modeling heterogeneous evacuation behavior under a moving threat is difficult because human perception, memory, and evidence evaluation are not well captured by fixed rules. We propose a novel LLM-powered agent-based framework to represent these internal decision processes. Each pedestrian agent perceives a private symbolic ASCII view, maintains a Memory-based Knowledge Graph derived solely from individual observations, and makes decisions through persona-conditioned prompts under a common sampling configuration. A compressed decision context with stateless memory preserves trial-and-error experience across turns while excluding reasoning traces, and a validation engine separates behavioral choice from physical feasibility by executing routes only over observed terrain. We evaluated eight personality compositions in eight paired randomized blocks within a simulated public plaza. Usable-exit knowledge was strongly associated with evacuation success: 89.5% of agents possessing such knowledge evacuated, compared with 1.05% of those without it. Personality compositions also differed in their evaluation of remembered threat evidence: the proportion of danger assessments varied by 0.265, while high-urgency, low-directness decisions ranged from 11.41% to 34.33%. After direct threat sightings, responses converged, with 99.6% of assessments classifying the situation as dangerous. Movement was selected in 99.8% of decisions. Overall, evacuation outcomes were strongly associated with information access, while evacuation time was jointly associated with spatial geometry, information, and affect. The framework provides an auditable approach to generating endogenous behavioral heterogeneity through persona-conditioned LLM agents in crowd-evacuation simulations.

Complex cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape human evacuations during natural disasters. Accurate modeling and understanding of human behavior in disasters or emergencies can greatly impact the evacuation process by informing more effective planning and resource allocation. However, collecting human data in these situations is very difficult, and existing computational evacuation models assume rational, homogeneous behavior, leading to unrealistic, overly optimistic predictions. To address this gap, we present a simulation framework of sequential human decision-making during an evacuation scenario, introducing cognitively grounded, persona-driven agents. Our framework models evacuation behavior in a grid-based urban environment that evolves over time, capturing fire and other hazards. Human agents are modeled as personas that make sequential decisions in response to environmental stimuli with cognition structured in three levels: high-level evacuation goals, mid-level route reasoning, and low-level navigation. Decision-making is driven by large language models (LLMs) coupled with a cognitive module and calibrated with empirical human evacuation data. We propose a dynamic, stimulus-driven disaster simulation framework that models human evacuation decision-making using persona-conditioned LLM agents and a cognitive hierarchy.

This article introduces a modeling framework to characterize evacuee response to environmental stimuli during emergency egress. The model is developed in consistency with stress theory, which explains how an organism reacts to environmental stressors (e.g., alarm signals or hazardous factors such as smoke and fire). We integrate the theory into the well-known social force model, and develop a framework to simulate crowd evacuation behavior in multi-compartment buildings. Our method serves as a theoretical basis to study crowd movement at bottlenecks, and simulate their herding behavior and way-finding activities in normal and hazardous conditions. The pre-movement behavior is also investigated by using opinion dynamics with a social group model. The algorithms have been partly tested in FDS+EVAC as well as our simulation platform crowdEgress.