Prompt Sensitivity and Answer Consistency of Small Open-Source Language Models for Clinical Question Answering in Low-Resource Healthcare

Incorporating large language models (LLMs) in medical question answering demands more than high average accuracy: a model that returns substantively different answers each time it is queried is not a reliable medical tool. Online health communities such as Reddit have become a primary source of medical information for millions of users, yet they remain highly susceptible to misinformation; deploying LLMs as assistants in these settings amplifies the need for output consistency alongside correctness. We present a practical, open-source evaluation framework for assessing small, locally-deployable open-weight LLMs on medical question answering, treating reproducibility as a first-class metric alongside lexical and semantic accuracy. Our pipeline computes eight quality metrics, including BERTScore, ROUGE-L, and an LLM-as-judge rubric, together with two within-model reproducibility metrics derived from repeated inference (N=10 runs per question). Evaluating three models (Llama 3.1 8B, Gemma 3 12B, MedGemma 1.5 4B) on 50 MedQuAD questions (N=1,500 total responses) reveals that despite low-temperature generation (T=0.2), self-agreement across runs reaches at most 0.20, while 87-97% of all outputs per model are unique -- a safety gap that single-pass benchmarks entirely miss. The clinically fine-tuned MedGemma 1.5 4B underperforms the larger general-purpose models on both quality and reproducibility; however, because MedGemma is also the smallest model, this comparison confounds domain fine-tuning with model scale. We describe the methodology in sufficient detail for practitioners to replicate or extend the evaluation for their own model-selection workflows. All code and data pipelines are available at https://github.com/aviad-buskila/llm_medical_reproducibility.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in medical settings, yet their sensitivity to prompt formatting remains poorly characterized. We evaluate MedGemma (4B and 27B parameters) on MedMCQA (4,183 questions) and PubMedQA (1,000 questions) across a broad suite of robustness tests. Our experiments reveal several concerning findings. Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting decreases accuracy by 5.7% compared to direct answering. Few-shot examples degrade performance by 11.9% while increasing position bias from 0.14 to 0.47. Shuffling answer options causes the model to change predictions 59.1% of the time, with accuracy dropping up to 27.4 percentage points. Front-truncating context to 50% causes accuracy to plummet below the no-context baseline, yet back-truncation preserves 97% of full-context accuracy. We further show that cloze scoring (selecting the highest log-probability option token) achieves 51.8% (4B) and 64.5% (27B), surpassing all prompting strategies and revealing that models "know" more than their generated text shows. Permutation voting recovers 4 percentage points over single-ordering inference. These results demonstrate that prompt engineering techniques validated on general-purpose models do not transfer to domain-specific medical LLMs, and that reliable alternatives exist.

This paper presents the joint participation of the BIT.UA and AAUBS groups in the ArchEHR-QA 2026 shared task, which focuses on clinical question answering and evidence grounding in a low-resource setting. Due to the absence of training data and the strict data privacy constraints inherent to the healthcare domain (e.g. GDPR), we investigate the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) without weight updates. We evaluate several state-of-the-art proprietary models and locally deployable open-source alternatives using various prompt engineering strategies, including task decomposition, Chain-of-Thought, and in-context learning. Furthermore, we explore majority voting and LLM-as-a-judge ensembling techniques to maximize predictive robustness. Our results demonstrate that while proprietary models exhibit strong resilience to prompt variations, domain-adapted open-source models (such as MedGemma 3 27B) achieve highly competitive performance when paired with the right prompt. Overall, our prompt-based approach proved highly effective, securing 1st place in Subtask 4 (evidence citation alignment) and 3rd place in Subtask 3 (patient-friendly answer generation). All code, results, and prompts are available on our GitHub repository: https://github.com/bioinformatics-ua/ArchEHR-QA-2026.