GALACTIC: Global and Local Agnostic Counterfactuals for Time-series Clustering

Counterfactual explanations emerge as a powerful approach in explainable AI, providing what-if scenarios that reveal how minimal changes to an input time series can alter the model's prediction. This work presents a survey of recent algorithms for counterfactual explanations for time series classification. We review state-of-the-art methods, spanning instance-based nearest-neighbor techniques, pattern-driven algorithms, gradient-based optimization, and generative models. For each, we discuss the underlying methodology, the models and classifiers they target, and the datasets on which they are evaluated. We highlight unique challenges in generating counterfactuals for temporal data, such as maintaining temporal coherence, plausibility, and actionable interpretability, which distinguish the temporal from tabular or image domains. We analyze the strengths and limitations of existing approaches and compare their effectiveness along key dimensions (validity, proximity, sparsity, plausibility, etc.). In addition, we implemented an open-source implementation library, Counterfactual Explanations for Time Series (CFTS), as a reference framework that includes many algorithms and evaluation metrics. We discuss this library's contributions in standardizing evaluation and enabling practical adoption of explainable time series techniques. Finally, based on the literature and identified gaps, we propose future research directions, including improved user-centered design, integration of domain knowledge, and counterfactuals for time series forecasting.

Clustering is an unsupervised technique for grouping data points by similarity. While explainability methods exist for supervised machine learning, they are not directly applicable to clustering, making it challenging to understand cluster assignments. This interpretability gap is particularly evident in the popular density-based method DBSCAN, which assigns points as inliers (cluster members in dense regions) or outliers (noise points in sparse regions). DBSCAN does not provide insight into why a particular point receives its assignment or whether its assignment is robust to small changes in the data. To address the lack of explainability, we introduce ExDBSCAN, a density-aware, post-hoc explanation method. ExDBSCAN offers actionable counterfactual explanations, with theoretical guarantees for validity. It generates multiple counterfactuals using a density connected weighted graph, adopting a physics-inspired model that repels counterfactual candidates from one another (diversity), while pulling them toward the instance to explain (proximity). Empirical evaluation on 30 tabular datasets comparing against four baselines shows that ExDBSCAN outperforms all baselines while attaining perfect validity and retrieving diverse, proximal counterfactuals.

Explaining deep learning models operating on time series data is crucial in various applications that require transparent and interpretable insights into model behavior. {Existing explanation methods generally fall into two categories: attribution-based explanations, which identify the temporal regions most responsible for a prediction, and counterfactual explanations, which reveal how an input should be modified to alter the model's decision.} {Despite valuable insights, these two fields are largely studied independently. This disconnect leaves attribution methods lacking causal validation, while counterfactual methods suffer from severe instability, producing adversarial-like noise instead of meaningful explanations.} In this work, we revisit time-series explainability from an information-theoretic perspective and show that existing explainers are vulnerable to trivial solutions and distributional shifts. To address these limitations, we propose a unified objective function for explainable time series learning that bridges attribution and counterfactual reasoning within a single framework. Building upon the Information Bottleneck principle, our formulation explicitly prevents trivial explanations and out-of-distribution counterfactuals. {Based on this objective function, we introduce {\modelname}, a novel explanation framework that learns a parametric transformation network to construct explanation-embedded instances, where preserved information yields attribution explanations and controlled information removal produces stable counterfactual explanations.} We evaluate {\modelname} on synthetic and real-world benchmarks against state-of-the-art baselines. Extensive quantitative and qualitative results show that {\modelname} consistently outperforms competing methods, yielding faithful attributions and stable counterfactual explanations.