Data-Driven Integration Kernels for Interpretable Nonlocal Operator Learning

Operator learning has emerged as a powerful tool for modeling complex physical systems in functional spaces. However, their neural network-based architectures make them opaque models, obscuring the reasoning behind their predictions. In this work, we introduce a self-explainable operator learning framework that overcomes this challenge by reformulating operator learning as a linear combination of generalized functional linear models expressed through integral equations. Exploiting the additive decomposability of these integral equations, we divide the input domain into subdomains and compute localized integrals to evaluate the contribution of each region to the final prediction. This decomposition enables direct interpretability where the model explains both inputs and outputs by linking specific input regions to corresponding output patterns, thereby revealing which spatial features drive predictions. We demonstrate the framework on function-to-scalar and function-to-function mappings in fluid flow problems involving blood flow and unsteady aerodynamics. The results show that the operator most often prioritizes regions with strong feature gradients, providing physically meaningful insight into the model's decision-making process. Comparisons with established post-hoc explainability methods demonstrate qualitative agreement while highlighting the key advantage of the proposed approach: explainability is embedded directly within the operator structure itself and does not require an external tool. Therefore, our framework provides a mathematically transparent and physically interpretable approach to uncover relationships within data, fostering trust in machine learning for scientific applications by enabling more informed data-driven analysis of physical systems.

Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting must handle irregular time points, spatially sparse observations, and the need for uncertainty quantification. This setting is often further compounded by nonlocal interactions (long-range spatial coupling). Modeling continuous-space, continuous-time nonlocal dynamics naturally leads to infinite-dimensional integro-differential equations (IDEs), making principled Bayesian inference intractable. We propose the NonLocal Bayesian Spatio-Temporal model (NLBST), a hierarchical Bayesian framework for continuous spatio-temporal fields that learns explicit nonlocal coupling while retaining tractable inference. NLBST represents the latent field via a coordinate-based spatial basis expansion and models the coefficient process with a continuous-time ODE whose learnable linear operator corresponds to a Galerkin reduction of a nonlocal IDE; a Neural ODE residual captures additional nonlinear dynamics. A linear-Gaussian observation model enables Kalman-style sequential updates under missing and irregular observations, while the spatial basis representation enables inductive prediction at unmeasured locations without retraining. Global parameters are learned via variational inference, and uncertainty is handled through a Bayesian hierarchy. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong forecasting and spatial generalization with well-calibrated uncertainty, yielding substantial gains over baselines in strongly nonlocal and partially observed regimes.

Deep learning weather prediction models achieve remarkable predictive skill yet remain largely opaque: we know little about how they represent physical climate phenomena internally. Mechanistic interpretability through Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) offers a principled route to decomposing these representations, but existing SAEs assume strictly linear feature superposition - a constraint ill-suited for the highly nonlinear atmospheric dynamics encoded in modern transformers. We introduce KAN-SAE, a sparse autoencoder whose encoder replaces the standard ReLU with learnable per-feature B-spline activations drawn from Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), allowing each latent dimension to develop its own nonlinear gating profile. Applied to Sonny, KAN-SAE discovers 975 alive features (vs. 566 for a linear baseline, a 72% improvement) with 20% lower inter-feature redundancy and comparable reconstruction fidelity. Without any climate supervision, KAN-SAE identifies an interpretable European heatwave feature spatially concentrated over western Europe, and a western Pacific typhoon tracker confirmed by causal steering experiments. Our results demonstrate that nonlinear activations are essential for mechanistic interpretability of deep learning weather prediction models, recovering climate features that remain invisible to linear baselines.