A Learning-Based Superposition Operator for Non-Renewal Arrival Processes in Queueing Networks

We study packet routing in queuing systems where queues act as selfish, myopic agents that use no-regret learning algorithms to select servers with unknown service rates. To model the small buffers used in data centers, we assume that each server has a single-packet buffer. Even such a tiny buffer already captures the features of buffering: routers can exploit multiple servers while accepted packets remain in service, but packets can occupy servers for multiple rounds, complicating future service and learning. We first analyze a single queue routing packets to $m$ buffered servers with service rates $μ_1, \dots, μ_m$. This setting is equivalent to an instance of the recharging bandits problem with geometric recharge. We prove that any no-regret learner achieves a long-run average throughput of at least the Hamacher sum of the server rates, and that this bound is tight. Consequently, a single no-regret queue is stable if and only if its arrival rate is below the Hamacher sum of the server rates. Moreover, comparing against an optimal policy, we show that any no-regret learner is at least $0.77$-competitive, which is also tight. We then study multi-queue systems where $n$ queues with arrival rates $λ_1, \dots, λ_n$, each at most $λ_{\max}$, compete for service from $m$ buffered servers. We show that the smallest overprovisioning factor that guarantees the system to be stable under high-probability no-regret learning is $\frac{1}{1-λ_{\max}}$. Equivalently, in terms of the total arrival and service rates, the condition $\sum_{i=1}^n λ_i < (1-λ_{\max})\sum_{j=1}^m μ_j$ is sufficient, and sometimes necessary, for stability under no-regret learning. In particular, for $λ_{\max} = 1/2$, this improves the upper bound of Abel et al. (EC 2026) from $3$ to $2$, matching their lower bound and resolving their open question.

We study finite-horizon queue peaks in generalized switches, a standard stochastic-network model in which many queues share constrained service resources. Arrivals may be dependent, nonstationary, and responsive to the system history; the only load condition is uniform interior slack, meaning the conditional mean arrival vector stays in a fixed contraction of the capacity region. We show that this slack reshapes the finite-time peak law for drift-minimizing scheduling policies such as MaxWeight. The square-root envelope that is sharp without slack persists only up to a geometry-dependent threshold; beyond that threshold, the running maximum grows only logarithmically with the horizon, both with high probability and in expectation. The mechanism is self-normalization: in the current queue direction, the projected fluctuation scale is normalized by the stabilizing drift scale. This removes capacity geometry from the logarithmic coefficient, while geometry remains in the threshold. Matching lower bounds show that both the logarithmic term and a geometric threshold are unavoidable. When finite-time state-space collapse is available, the threshold can be sharpened using local bottleneck geometry. For generalized input-queued switches, we obtain finite-time peak bounds with tight logarithmic coefficients. Simulations illustrate the two-phase envelope, local geometric refinements, and variance-sensitive improvements predicted by the theory.

Metamodels for discrete-event simulations approximate the behavior of simulation models without running expensive simulations. Prior work introduced modular dynamic Bayesian networks (MDBNs) -- a class of metamodels that can estimate a range of probabilistic and causal queries (PCQs) using a single, trained model -- but the method was limited to Markovian systems. In this paper, we initiate an extension of MDBNs to non-Markovian queues by approximating non-exponential distributions using phase-type distributions. This approach raises novel challenges, including balancing metamodeling accuracy and tractability when choosing the number of phases, efficiently learning metamodel parameters, and choosing the sampling interval that is used to approximate a continuous-time simulation by a discrete-time MDBN. We provide preliminary solutions to these challenges, yielding the first causal metamodeling technique for non-Markovian systems. Experiments on a G/M/1 queue demonstrate that the MDBN can produce accurate answers to PCQs with orders-of-magnitude speedup of inference times relative to direct simulation.