Adaptive Diffusion Posterior Sampling for Data and Model Fusion of Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Fast surrogate modeling for high-dimensional physical dynamics requires more than low short-term error: useful models must roll out efficiently while preserving the statistical structure of long trajectories. Neural operators provide inexpensive autoregressive forecasts but can drift in turbulent regimes, whereas rolling diffusion and latent generative surrogates can represent stochastic transitions at the cost of multi-step denoising, noise-schedule design, or auxiliary compression models. We propose MeanFlow Long-term Invariant Spatiotemporal Consistency Autoregressive Models (MeLISA), a latent-free autoregressive generative surrogate built on pixel-space MeanFlow. MeLISA defines a blockwise stochastic transition kernel that generates each forecast block with a single model evaluation, avoiding latent encoders and iterative diffusion solvers at inference time. To stabilize long-horizon rollouts, MeLISA combines a Window-Consistency MeanFlow objective that learns conditional spatiotemporal generation from partially observed temporal windows with a Time Increment Consistency loss that constrains multi-lag finite increments and targets temporal-correlation structure. We evaluate MeLISA with compact UNet and scalable DiT backbones on two high-resolution benchmarks, extended 2D Kolmogorov flow at $256 \times 256$ and turbulent channel-flow slice at $192 \times 192$. MeLISA outperforms neural-operator baselines on short-term forecasting accuracy and long-horizon statistical metrics, including energy spectra, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing-rate-related dynamics, while achieving inference speeds comparable to, and in some cases faster than, neural operators. Compact 3.7-5.7M-parameter variants already deliver strong parameter efficiency, and DiT variants provide a scalable path up to 150M parameters. Overall, MeLISA benefits both rollout efficiency and long-horizon statistical accuracy.

Machine learning is becoming increasingly important for nonlinear system identification, including dynamical systems with spatially distributed outputs. However, classical identification and forecasting approaches become markedly less reliable in turbulent-flow regimes, where the dynamics are high-dimensional, strongly nonlinear, and highly sensitive to compounding rollout errors. Diffusion-based models have recently shown improved robustness in this setting and offer probabilistic inference capabilities, but many current implementations inherit target parameterizations from image generation, most commonly noise or velocity prediction. In this work, we revisit this design choice in the context of nonlinear spatiotemporal system identification. We consider a simple, self-contained patch-based transformer that operates directly on physical fields and use turbulent flow simulation as a representative testbed. Our results show that clean-state prediction consistently improves rollout stability and reduces long-horizon error relative to velocity- and noise-based objectives, with the advantage becoming more pronounced as the per-token dimensionality increases. These findings identify target parameterization as a key modeling choice in diffusion-based identification of nonlinear systems with spatial outputs in turbulent regimes.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) provides high-fidelity simulations of fluid flows but remains computationally expensive for many-query applications. In recent years deep learning (DL) has been used to construct data-driven fluid-dynamic surrogate models. In this work we consider a different learning paradigm and embrace generative modelling as a framework for constructing scalable fluid-dynamics surrogate models. We introduce FluidFlow, a generative model based on conditional flow-matching, a recent alternative to diffusion models that learns deterministic transport maps between noise and data distributions. FluidFlow is specifically designed to operate directly on CFD data defined on both structured and unstructured meshes alike, without the needs to perform any mesh interpolation pre-processing and preserving geometric fidelity. We assess the capabilities of FluidFlow using two different core neural network architectures, a U-Net and diffusion transformer (DiT), and condition their learning on physically meaningful parameters. The methodology is validated on two benchmark problems of increasing complexity: prediction of pressure coefficients along an airfoil boundary across different operating conditions, and prediction of pressure and friction coefficients over a full three-dimensional aircraft geometry discretized on a large unstructured mesh. In both cases, FluidFlow outperform strong multilayer perceptron baselines, achieving significantly lower error metrics and improved generalisation across operating conditions. Notably, the transformer-based architecture enables scalable learning on large unstructured datasets while maintaining high predictive accuracy. These results demonstrate that flow-matching generative models provide an effective and flexible framework for surrogate modelling in fluid dynamics, with potential for realistic engineering and scientific applications.