Surrogates for Physics-based and Data-driven Modelling of Parametric Systems: Review and New Perspectives

This paper develops an adaptive surrogate modeling method for problems with very high-dimensional spatio-temporal outputs. The analysis of spatio-temporal multi-physics systems is computationally expensive and consists of a large number of inputs and outputs. Surrogate models are often constructed to replace the physics-based model to achieve computational efficiency in analyses such as uncertainty quantification and optimization that require many function calls. In order to address the challenge introduced by the high dimensionality of spatio-temporal output, a dimension reduction method is first employed to map the high-dimensional output to a low-dimensional latent space. This is followed by the construction of the surrogate model in the low-dimensional space. The prediction error in the original space, which includes both the reconstruction error and surrogate model error, is evaluated using different error metrics. Based on the prediction accuracy of the surrogate model, new training points are identified for adaptive improvement of the surrogate model. We present a novel adaptive sampling technique that combines exploration and exploitation to improve the surrogate model accuracy with the fewest possible runs of the expensive physics-based model. Thermo-mechanical analysis of a gas turbine engine blade is used to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We consider the problem of constructing surrogate operators for parameter-to-solution maps arising from parametric partial differential equations, where repeated forward model evaluations are computationally expensive. We present a systematic empirical comparison of neural operator surrogates, including a reduced-basis neural operator trained with $L^2_μ$ and $H^1_μ$ objectives and the Fourier neural operator, against polynomial surrogate methods, specifically a reduced-basis sparse-grid surrogate and a reduced-basis tensor-train surrogate. All methods are evaluated on a linear parametric diffusion problem and a nonlinear parametric hyperelasticity problem, using input fields with algebraically decaying spectral coefficients at varying rates of decay $s$. To enable fair comparisons, we analyze ensembles of surrogate models generated by varying hyperparameters and compare the resulting Pareto frontiers of cost versus approximation accuracy, decomposing cost into contributions from data generation, setup, and evaluation. Our results show that no single method is universally superior. Polynomial surrogates achieve substantially better data efficiency for smooth input fields ($s \geq 2$), with convergence rates for the sparse-grid surrogate in agreement with theoretical predictions. For rough inputs ($s \leq 1$), the Fourier neural operator displays the fastest convergence rates. Derivative-informed training consistently improves data efficiency over standard $L^2_μ$ training, providing a competitive alternative for rough inputs in the low-data regime when Jacobian information is available at reasonable cost. These findings highlight the importance of matching the surrogate methodology to the regularity of the problem as well as accuracy demands and computational constraints of the application.

Forward and inverse modeling of parametric dynamical systems requires surrogate models that are not only accurate for state prediction, but also informative for parameter calibration. However, a systematic end-to-end differentiable formulation for coupling deep-learning-based reduced-order surrogates with variational parameter estimation remains underdeveloped. In this work, we introduce a physics-aware neural-network-based latent-space framework for reduced-order forward modeling and variational parameter estimation. The proposed autoencoder-based approach yields a differentiable surrogate that maps physical parameters to predicted flow fields through a latent representation. The observable supervision is used during offline training to encourage the latent variables to retain information correlated with system parameters, while the online inverse problem is solved in the parameter space through the surrogate-induced observation operator. The method is evaluated on two computational-fluid-dynamics benchmarks. The results show that reconstruction accuracy alone is insufficient for inverse modeling, owing to the lack of end-to-end differentiability or physics awareness for variational parameter calibration. Quantitative latent-space analysis further shows that observable supervision improves case-level separability and temporal organization of latent representations. Experiments with realistic measurement settings, including noisy, low-resolution, randomly masked, and block-wise partial observations, demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework and show that it generally reduces calibration error and variability compared with the standard surrogate models.